Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part II: Evaluation of Sample Models

Previous studies have shown that probabilistic forecasting may be a useful method for predicting persistent contrail formation. A probabilistic forecast to accurately predict contrail formation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) is created by using meteorological data based on hourly meteorological analyses from the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) and from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) as well as GOES water vapor channel measurements, combined with surface and satellite observations of contrails. Two groups of logistic models were created. The first group of models (SURFACE models) is based on surface-based contrail observations supplemented with satellite observations of contrail occurrence. The second group of models (OUTBREAK models) is derived from a selected subgroup of satellite-based observations of widespread persistent contrails. The mean accuracies for both the SURFACE and OUTBREAK models typically exceeded 75 percent when based on the RUC or ARPS analysis data, but decreased when the logistic models were derived from ARPS forecast data

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus

Microphysical and radiative properties of marine stratocumulus from tethered balloon measurements

May 1989.Includes bibliographical references.Sponsored by NSF ATM-8415127.Sponsored by ONR N00014-87-K-0228

Measured and Simulated Acoustic Signature of a Full-Scale Aircraft with Airframe Noise Reduction Technology Installed

Microphone phased-array and pole-mounted microphone data gathered during the NASA Acoustics Research Measurements flight tests were used to benchmark results from companion full-scale aeroacoustics simulations. Conducted with the lattice Boltzmann solver PowerFLOW, the simulations predicted the acoustic behavior of various tested aircraft configurations. Emphasis was placed on those flown during the third flight test - a Fowler flap-equipped Gulfstream G-III with and without noise abatement technology on the main landing gear. Direct comparisons between experimental and synthetic microphone phasedarray data were achieved by applying the same processing and deconvolution technique to both sets of data. To extend the validation of the computations to the metric used for noise certification, the Effective Perceived Noise Level, a high-fidelity digital model of the nose landing gear, which was excluded from earlier computations, was developed and integrated into the G-III aircraft geometry. The acoustic study presented here demonstrates that the simulated beamform maps and corresponding integrated farfield spectra accurately predict the locations and strengths of the prominent airframe noise sources present on the G-III aircraft

Comparative Study of Active Flow Control Strategies for Lift Enhancement of a Simplified High-Lift Configuration

Numerical simulations have been performed for a simplified high-lift (SHL) version of the Common Research Model (CRM) configuration, where the Fowler flaps of the conventional high-lift (CRM-HL) configuration are replaced by a set of simple hinged flaps. These hinged flaps are equipped with integrated modular active flow control (AFC) cartridges on the suction surface, and the resulting geometry is known as the CRM-SHL-AFC configuration. The main objective is to make use of AFC devices on the CRM-SHL-AFC configuration to recover the aerodynamic performance (lift) of the CRM-HL configuration. In the current paper, a Lattice Boltzmann method-based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code, known as PowerFLOWQ is used to simulate the entire flow field associated with the CRM-SHL-AFC configuration equipped with several different types of AFC devices. The transonic version of the PowerFLOWQ code that has been validated for high speed flows is used to accurately simulate the flow field generated by the high-momentum actuators required to mitigate reversed flow regions on the suction surfaces of the main wing and the flap. The numerical solutions predict the expected trends in aerodynamic forces as the actuation levels are increased. More efficient AFC systems and actuator arrangements emerged based on the parametric studies performed prior to a Fall 2018 wind tunnel test. Preliminary comparisons of the numerical solutions for lift and surface pressures are presented here with the experimental data, demonstrating the usefulness of CFD for predicting the flow field and lift characteristics of AFC-enabled high-lift configurations

The Continuous Monitoring of Desert Dust using an Infrared-based Dust Detection and Retrieval Method

Airborne dust and sand are significant aerosol sources that can impact the atmospheric and surface radiation budgets. Because airborne dust affects visibility and air quality, it is desirable to monitor the location and concentrations of this aerosol for transportation and public health. Although aerosol retrievals have been derived for many years using visible and near-infrared reflectance measurements from satellites, the detection and quantification of dust from these channels is problematic over bright surfaces, or when dust concentrations are large. In addition, aerosol retrievals from polar orbiting satellites lack the ability to monitor the progression and sources of dust storms. As a complement to current aerosol dust retrieval algorithms, multi-spectral thermal infrared (8-12 micron) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Meteosat-8 Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) are used in the development of a prototype dust detection method and dust property retrieval that can monitor the progress of Saharan dust fields continuously, both night and day. The dust detection method is incorporated into the processing of CERES (Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System) aerosol retrievals to produce dust property retrievals. Both MODIS (from Terra and Aqua) and SEVERI data are used to develop the method

Pando: Personal Volunteer Computing in Browsers

The large penetration and continued growth in ownership of personal electronic devices represents a freely available and largely untapped source of computing power. To leverage those, we present Pando, a new volunteer computing tool based on a declarative concurrent programming model and implemented using JavaScript, WebRTC, and WebSockets. This tool enables a dynamically varying number of failure-prone personal devices contributed by volunteers to parallelize the application of a function on a stream of values, by using the devices' browsers. We show that Pando can provide throughput improvements compared to a single personal device, on a variety of compute-bound applications including animation rendering and image processing. We also show the flexibility of our approach by deploying Pando on personal devices connected over a local network, on Grid5000, a French-wide computing grid in a virtual private network, and seven PlanetLab nodes distributed in a wide area network over Europe.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, 2 table

Comparison of Measured and Simulated Acoustic Signatures for a Full-Scale Aircraft with and Without Airframe Noise Abatement

No abstract availabl

Noise Simulations of the High-Lift Common Research Model

The PowerFLOW(TradeMark) code has been used to perform numerical simulations of the high-lift version of the Common Research Model (HL-CRM) that will be used for experimental testing of airframe noise. Time-averaged surface pressure results from PowerFLOW(TradeMark) are found to be in reasonable agreement with those from steady-state computations using FUN3D. Surface pressure fluctuations are highest around the slat break and nacelle/pylon region, and synthetic array beamforming results also indicate that this region is the dominant noise source on the model. The gap between the slat and pylon on the HL-CRM is not realistic for modern aircraft, and most nacelles include a chine that is absent in the baseline model. To account for those effects, additional simulations were completed with a chine and with the slat extended into the pylon. The case with the chine was nearly identical to the baseline, and the slat extension resulted in higher surface pressure fluctuations but slightly reduced radiated noise. The full-span slat geometry without the nacelle/pylon was also simulated and found to be around 10 dB quieter than the baseline over almost the entire frequency range. The current simulations are still considered preliminary as changes in the radiated acoustics are still being observed with grid refinement, and additional simulations with finer grids are planned