Spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence of chikungunya virus in Brazil: an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an Aedes mosquito-borne virus that has caused large epidemics linked to acute, chronic, and severe clinical outcomes. Currently, Brazil has the highest number of chikungunya cases in the Americas. We aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence pattern of chikungunya in Brazil since its introduction in 2013. METHODS: In this epidemiological study, we used CHIKV genomic sequencing data, CHIKV vector information, and aggregate clinical data on chikungunya cases from Brazil. The genomic data comprised 241 Brazilian CHIKV genome sequences from GenBank (n=180) and the 2022 CHIKV outbreak in Ceará state (n=61). The vector data (Breteau index and House index) were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health for all 184 municipalities in Ceará state and 116 municipalities in Tocantins state in 2022. Epidemiological data on laboratory-confirmed cases of chikungunya between 2013 and 2022 were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and Laboratory of Public Health of Ceará. We assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of chikungunya in Brazil via time series, mapping, age-sex distribution, cumulative case-fatality, linear correlation, logistic regression, and phylogenetic analyses. FINDINGS: Between March 3, 2013, and June 4, 2022, 253 545 laboratory-confirmed chikungunya cases were reported in 3316 (59·5%) of 5570 municipalities, mainly distributed in seven epidemic waves from 2016 to 2022. To date, Ceará in the northeast has been the most affected state, with 77 418 cases during the two largest epidemic waves in 2016 and 2017 and the third wave in 2022. From 2016 to 2022 in Ceará, the odds of being CHIKV-positive were higher in females than in males (odds ratio 0·87, 95% CI 0·85-0·89, p<0·0001), and the cumulative case-fatality ratio was 1·3 deaths per 1000 cases. Chikungunya recurrences in the states of Ceará, Tocantins (recurrence in 2022), and Pernambuco (recurrence in 2021) were limited to municipalities with few or no previously reported cases in the previous epidemic waves. The recurrence of chikungunya in Ceará in 2022 was associated with a new East-Central-South-African lineage. Population density metrics of the main CHIKV vector in Brazil, Aedes aegypti, were not correlated spatially with locations of chikungunya recurrence in Ceará and Tocantins. INTERPRETATION: Spatial heterogeneity of CHIKV spread and population immunity might explain the recurrence pattern of chikungunya in Brazil. These results can be used to inform public health interventions to prevent future chikungunya epidemic waves in urban settings. FUNDING: Global Virus Network, Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, São Paulo Research Foundation, Brazil Ministry of Education, UK Medical Research Council, Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, and UK Royal Society. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section

GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1 polymorphisms, breast cancer risk factors and mammographic density in women submitted to breast cancer screening Polimorfismos GSTM1, GSTT1 e GSTP1, fatores de risco para câncer de mama e densidade mamográfica em mulheres submetidas a rastreamento mamográfico

Genetic polymorphisms in genes related to the metabolism of xenobiotics, such as genes of the glutathione S-transferases (GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1) superfamily have been associated with an increased risk for breast cancer (BC). Considering the high incidence of BC in the city of Porto Alegre in southern Brazil, the purpose of this study was to characterize genotypic and allelic frequencies of polymorphisms in GSTM1, GSTT1, and GSTP1, and correlate these molecular findings with established risk factors for breast cancer including mammographic density, in a sample of 750 asymptomatic women undergoing mammographic screening. Molecular tests were performed using the multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for GSTM1 and GSTT1, and quantitative PCR for GSTP1 polymorphisms. Overall, the frequencies of GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes were 45% and 21%, respectively. For GSTP1 polymorphism, genotypic frequencies were 44% for the Ile/Ile genotype, 44% for the Ile/Val genotype, and 12% for Val/Val genotype, with an allelic frequency of 66% for the wild type allele in this population, similar to results of previous international publications. There was a statistically significant association between the combined GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes (M-/T-) and mammographic density in post menopausal women (p = 0.031). When the GSTT1 null (T-) genotype was analyzed isolated, the association with mammographic density in post menopausal women and in the overall sample was also statistically significant (p = 0.023 and p = 0.027, respectively). These findings suggest an association of GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes with mammographic density.<br>Polimorfismos genéticos em genes relacionados com o metabolismo de xenobióticos, como os genes da superfamília das glutationa S-transferases (GSTM1, GSTT1 e GSTP1) têm sido associados com o aumento do risco para câncer de mama (CM). Considerando a alta incidência de CM na cidade de Porto Alegre, região Sul do Brasil, a proposta deste estudo foi caracterizar genótipos e frequências alélicas dos polimorfismos GSTM1, GSTT1 e GSTP1, e correlacionar esses achados moleculares com fatores de risco já estabelecidos para câncer de mama, incluindo densidade mamográfica, em uma amostra de 750 mulheres assintomáticas durante o rastreamento mamográfico. Para os testes moleculares foi utilizado multiplex da reação em cadeia de polimerase (PCR) para GSTM1 e GSTT1, e PCR quantitativo para o polimorfismo GSTP1. As frequências dos genótipos GSTM1 e GSTT1 nulos foram 45% e 21%, respectivamente. Para o polimorfismo GSTP1, as frequências genotipicas foram: 44% para o genótipo Ile/Ile, 44% para o genótipo Ile/Val e 12% para o genótipo Val/Val. A frequência do alelo lle nesta população foi 66%, semelhante a outros estudos. Houve uma associação significativa entre a combinação dos genótipos (T-/M-) nulos e densidade mamográfica nas mulheres pós-menopáusicas (p = 0,031). Quando analisamos isoladamente o genótipo GSTT1 nulo (T-) também encontramos uma associação significativa com a densidade mamográfica nas mulheres pós-menopáusicas (p = 0,027) e na amostra total. Estes achados sugerem uma associação dos genótipos (T-/M-) nulos com densidade mamográfica