Evaluation of atmospheric aerosols in the metropolitan area of São Paulo simulated by the regional EURAD-IM model on high-resolution

We present a high-resolution air quality study over São Paulo, Brazil with the EURopean Air Pollution Dispersion - Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) used for the first time over South America simulating detailed features of aerosols. Modeled data are evaluated with observational surface data and a Lidar. Two case studies in 2016 with distinct meteorological conditions and pollution plume features show transport (i) from central South America, associated to biomass burning activities, (ii) from the rural part of the state of São Paulo, (iii) between the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo (MASP) either through the Paraíba Valley or via the ocean, connecting Brazil's two largest cities, (iv) from the port-city Santos to MASP and also from MASP to the city Campinas, and vice versa. A Pearson coefficient of 0.7 was found for PM10 at MASP CENTER and EURAD-IM simulations vary within the observational standard deviation, with a Mean Percentual Error (MPE) of 10%. The model's vertical distributions of aerosol layers agree with the Lidar profiles that show either characteristics of long-range transported biomass burning plumes, or of local pollution. The distinct transport patterns that agree with satellite Aerosol Optical Death and fire spot images as well as with the ground-based observations within the standard deviations, allows us exploring patterns of air pollution in a detailed manner and to understand the complex interactions between local to long-range transport sources.This study was financed in part by the Coordenaç ̃ao de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brazil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001, Brazil, for the doctoral scholarship granted. This article and the research behind it are a direct contribution to the research themes of the Klimapolis Laboratory (klimapolis.net

Intercomparison of air quality models in a megacity: Towards an operational ensemble forecasting system for São Paulo

An intercomparison of four air quality models is performed in the tropical megacity of Sao Paulo with the perspective of developing an air quality forecasting system based on a regional model ensemble. During three contrasting periods marked by different types of pollution events, we analyze the concentrations of the main regulated pollutants (Ozone, CO, SO2, NOx, PM2.5 and PM10) compared to observations of a dense air quality monitoring network. The modeled concentrations of CO, PM and NOx are in good agreement with the observations for the temporal variability and the range of variation. However, the transport of pollutants due to biomass burning pollution events can strongly affect the air quality in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo with increases of CO, PM2.5 and PM10, and is associated with an important inter-model variability. Our results show that each model has periods and pollutants for which it has the best agreement. The observed day-to-day variability of ozone concentration is well reproduced by the models, as well as the average diurnal cycle in terms of timing. Overall the performance for ozone of the median of the regional model ensemble is the best in terms of time and magnitude because it takes advantage of the capabilities of each model. Therefore, an ensemble prediction of regional models is promising for an operational air quality forecasting system for the megacity of Sao Paulo.This article is a direct contribution to the research themes of the Klimapolis Lab-836 oratory (klimapolis.net), which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education837 and Research (BMBF)