AIS-BN: An Adaptive Importance Sampling Algorithm for Evidential Reasoning in Large Bayesian Networks

Stochastic sampling algorithms, while an attractive alternative to exact algorithms in very large Bayesian network models, have been observed to perform poorly in evidential reasoning with extremely unlikely evidence. To address this problem, we propose an adaptive importance sampling algorithm, AIS-BN, that shows promising convergence rates even under extreme conditions and seems to outperform the existing sampling algorithms consistently. Three sources of this performance improvement are (1) two heuristics for initialization of the importance function that are based on the theoretical properties of importance sampling in finite-dimensional integrals and the structural advantages of Bayesian networks, (2) a smooth learning method for the importance function, and (3) a dynamic weighting function for combining samples from different stages of the algorithm. We tested the performance of the AIS-BN algorithm along with two state of the art general purpose sampling algorithms, likelihood weighting (Fung and Chang, 1989; Shachter and Peot, 1989) and self-importance sampling (Shachter and Peot, 1989). We used in our tests three large real Bayesian network models available to the scientific community: the CPCS network (Pradhan et al., 1994), the PathFinder network (Heckerman, Horvitz, and Nathwani, 1990), and the ANDES network (Conati, Gertner, VanLehn, and Druzdzel, 1997), with evidence as unlikely as 10^-41. While the AIS-BN algorithm always performed better than the other two algorithms, in the majority of the test cases it achieved orders of magnitude improvement in precision of the results. Improvement in speed given a desired precision is even more dramatic, although we are unable to report numerical results here, as the other algorithms almost never achieved the precision reached even by the first few iterations of the AIS-BN algorithm

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Gaussian Chain Graph Models under the Alternative Markov Property

The AMP Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced LWF Markov property that is coherent with data-generation by natural block-recursive regressions. In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimates in Gaussian AMP chain graph models can be obtained by combining generalized least squares and iterative proportional fitting to an iterative algorithm. In an appendix, we give useful convergence results for iterative partial maximization algorithms that apply in particular to the described algorithm.Comment: 15 pages, article will appear in Scandinavian Journal of Statistic

On-Line Student Modeling for Coached Problem Solving Using Bayesian Networks

This paper describes the student modeling component of ANDES, an Intelligent Tutoring System for Newtonian physics. ANDES' student model uses a Bayesian network to do long-term knowledge assessment, plan recognition and prediction of students' actions during problem solving. The network is updated in real time, using an approximate anytime algorithm based on stochastic sampling, as a student solves problems with ANDES.The information in the student model is used by ANDES' Help system to tailor its support when the student reaches impasses in the problem solving process. In this paper, we describe the knowledge structures represented in the student model and discuss the implementation of the Bayesian network assessor. We also present a preliminary evaluation of the time performance of stochastic sampling algorithms to update the network

Medicine in words and numbers: a cross-sectional survey comparing probability assessment scales

Contains fulltext : 56355.pdf ( ) (Open Access)Background / In the complex domain of medical decision making, reasoning under uncertainty can benefit from supporting tools. Automated decision support tools often build upon mathematical models, such as Bayesian networks. These networks require probabilities which often have to be assessed by experts in the domain of application. Probability response scales can be used to support the assessment process. We compare assessments obtained with different types of response scale. Methods / General practitioners (GPs) gave assessments on and preferences for three different probability response scales: a numerical scale, a scale with only verbal labels, and a combined verbal-numerical scale we had designed ourselves. Standard analyses of variance were performed. Results / No differences in assessments over the three response scales were found. Preferences for type of scale differed: the less experienced GPs preferred the verbal scale, the most experienced preferred the numerical scale, with the groups in between having a preference for the combined verbal-numerical scale. Conclusion / We conclude that all three response scales are equally suitable for supporting probability assessment. The combined verbal-numerical scale is a good choice for aiding the process, since it offers numerical labels to those who prefer numbers and verbal labels to those who prefer words, and accommodates both more and less experienced professionals.8 p

Simultaneous Genome-Wide Inference of Physical, Genetic, Regulatory, and Functional Pathway Components

Biomolecular pathways are built from diverse types of pairwise interactions, ranging from physical protein-protein interactions and modifications to indirect regulatory relationships. One goal of systems biology is to bridge three aspects of this complexity: the growing body of high-throughput data assaying these interactions; the specific interactions in which individual genes participate; and the genome-wide patterns of interactions in a system of interest. Here, we describe methodology for simultaneously predicting specific types of biomolecular interactions using high-throughput genomic data. This results in a comprehensive compendium of whole-genome networks for yeast, derived from ∼3,500 experimental conditions and describing 30 interaction types, which range from general (e.g. physical or regulatory) to specific (e.g. phosphorylation or transcriptional regulation). We used these networks to investigate molecular pathways in carbon metabolism and cellular transport, proposing a novel connection between glycogen breakdown and glucose utilization supported by recent publications. Additionally, 14 specific predicted interactions in DNA topological change and protein biosynthesis were experimentally validated. We analyzed the systems-level network features within all interactomes, verifying the presence of small-world properties and enrichment for recurring network motifs. This compendium of physical, synthetic, regulatory, and functional interaction networks has been made publicly available through an interactive web interface for investigators to utilize in future research at http://function.princeton.edu/bioweaver/

Latest features of the ecosystem management decision support system, version 8.0

The Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system is a spatially enabled system for environmental analysis and strategic and tactical planning. EMDS combines various sophisticated analytical tools within a GIS environment. Originally released by the Pacific Northwest Research Station, USDA in 1997, EMDS has been maintained and actively extended since then. Building on its core functionality of logic processing and decision modeling and availability as an ArcMap component, recent advances include more advanced geodatabase processing, integration with open-source GIS platforms, incorporation of two new analytical engines, support for scripting tools, implementation of a graphical workflow environment, advanced tactical planning, portfolio management, and a cloud-based collaboration manager. Because EMDS is a generic solution framework, it can be applied to an extremely broad array of problems at virtually any and all spatial scales. This paper presents an overview of the EMDS technology and describes some of the projects in which it has been used