EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION TARGETING IN MOROCCO AND TUNISIA

Morocco and Tunisia have started to open their markets to international trade and capital flows in order to bolster investment and growth. These liberalization programs require important adjustments in their economic policies, in particular their exchange rate regimes and monetary policies. This objective of this paper is to examine why Morocco and Tunisia should progressively opt for greater exchange rate flexibility as well as a monetary policy based on inflation targeting rather than exchange rate targeting and money-growth rules, as their markets are increasingly liberalized. First, their past economic policies are reviewed and analyzed. Second, the theoretical sources of inflation (cost push and demand pull factors as well as factors due to financial liberalization) are identified. Third, a Markov switching model with time-varying transition probabilities is estimated for Morocco and Tunisia to provide important information concerning the mechanisms underlying inflation regime changes. The empirical results provide evidence that high inflation regimes are more persistent in Morocco than in Tunisia, and that inflation regime switches can be explained by external shocks in the 1970s, and by the sound fiscal and monetary policies in the mid-1980s. Finally the institutional and operational conditions for the success of an inflation-targeting framework are outlined.Markov switching; Inflation; Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Central Banks; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Morocco; Tunisia

La Polynésie Française et l'Euro

The legal status of French Polynesia has important implications for the local economy, in particular for its currency, the CFP franc. A resolution passed on January 19, 2006 by the Assembly of French Polynesia shows the political will to replace this currency by the euro. This article explains the institutional procedures necessary for a possible switch to the euro in French Polynesia, and analyses its economic advantages and drawbacks.The conclusion is that entering the euro zone would be in the best interests of French Polynesia

Rapid methods of landslide hazard mapping : Fiji case study

A landslide hazard probability map can help planners (1) prepare for, and/or mitigate against, the effects of landsliding on communities and infrastructure, and (2) avoid or minimise the risks associated with new developments. The aims of the project were to establish, by means of studies in a few test areas, a generic method by which remote sensing and data analysis using a geographic information system (GIS) could provide a provisional landslide hazard zonation map. The provision of basic hazard information is an underpinning theme of the UN’s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). It is an essential requirement for disaster preparedness and mitigation planning. This report forms part of BGS project 92/7 (R5554) ‘Rapid assessment of landslip hazards’ Carried out under the ODA/BGS Technology Development and Research Programme as part of the British Government’s provision of aid to developing countries. It provides a detailed technical account of work undertaken in a test area in Viti Levu in collaboration with Fiji Mineral Resources Department. The study represents a demonstration of a methodology that is applicable to many developing countries. The underlying principle is that relationships between past landsliding events, interpreted from remote sensing, and factors such as the geology, relief, soils etc provide the basis for modelling where future landslides are most likely to occur. This is achieved using a GIS by ‘weighting’ each class of each variable (e.g. each lithology ‘class’ of the variable ‘geology’) according to the proportion of landslides occurring within it compared to the regional average. Combinations of variables, produced by summing the weights in individual classes, provide ‘models’ of landslide probability. The approach is empirical but has the advantage of potentially being able to provide regional scale hazard maps over large areas quickly and cheaply; this is unlikely to be achieved using conventional ground-based geotechnical methods. In Fiji, landslides are usually triggered by intense rain storms commonly associated with tropical cyclones. However, the regional distribution of landslides has not been mapped nor is it known how far geology and landscape influence the location and severity of landsliding events. The report discusses the remote sensing and GIS methodology, and describes the results of the pilot study over an area of 713 km2 in south east Viti Levu. The landslide model uses geology, elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, soil type, and forest cover as inputs. The resulting provisional landslide hazard zonation map, divided into high, medium and low zones of landslide hazard probability, suggests that whilst rainfall is the immediate cause, others controls do exert a significant influence. It is recommended that consideration be given in Fiji to implementing the techniques as part of a national strategic plan for landslide hazard zonation mapping

Images of Tapati 2006

Images of Tapati 200

Étude granulométrique sur quelques sables de Mauritanie

Dropsy U. Étude granulométrique sur quelques sables de Mauritanie. In: Bulletin de la Société française de Minéralogie, volume 66, 1-6, 1943. Bulletin dédié à Alfred Lacroix à l'occasion de son quatre-vingtième anniversaire. pp. 251-263

Do Macroeconomic Factors Help In Predicting International Equity Risk Premia?: Testing The Out-Of-Sample Accuracy Of Linear And Nonlinear Forecasts

This paper investigates whether macroeconomic variables can improve the predictability of equity risk premia. Ex ante forecasts of excess returns are generated recursively from both linear regression analysis and nonlinear neural networks. Empirical results suggest that these forecasts are superior to the random walk predicator at almost all horizons in the U.S., Japanese, British and German stock markets. However, there does not appear to be a significant difference between linear and nonlinear forecasts

Sur un moulage en trémie de halite de Beaume de Venise (Vaucluse)

Dropsy U. Sur un moulage en trémie de halite de Beaume de Venise (Vaucluse). In: Bulletin de la Société française de Minéralogie, volume 61, 4-6, 1938. pp. 205-208

Tourism, Insularity and Remoteness: a Gravity-Based Approach

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