Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling for Southern Louisiana

Coastal Louisiana is characterized by low-lying topography and an intricate network of sounds, estuaries, bays, marshes, lakes, rivers and inlets that permit widespread inundation during hurricanes, such as that witnessed during the 2005 hurricane season with Katrina and Rita. A basin to channel scale implementation of the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model has been developed that simulates hurricane storm surge, tides and river flow in this complex region

Algorithmic improvements and analyses of the generalized wave continuity equation based model, ADCIRC.

Second, nearly all GWC-based models utilize a velocity-based, non-conservative momentum equation (NCM) to obtain the depth-averaged velocity profile. It has been hypothesized that the conservative momentum equation (CM) may improve accuracy, mass balance and stability. Results show that the CM equation improves mass balance, both globally and locally, especially in areas of steep bathymetry gradients, and improves local spatial accuracy in these same regions, yet does so without significantly impacting stability, temporal accuracy and global spatial accuracy.First, the current time marching algorithm is semi-implicit, with the nonlinear terms evaluated explicitly. It has been hypothesized that the explicit treatment of the nonlinear terms can lead to instabilities. An iterative, implicit treatment of the nonlinear terms is implemented and studied. Results show an increase in the maximum time step of at least eight-fold, depending on the domain, and an increase in temporal accuracy from first to second order. A parallel implementation of the algorithm scales as well as the original algorithm.Shallow water equations are based on conservation of mass and momentum and can be used to model the hydrodynamic behavior of oceans, coastal areas, estuaries and lakes. The model used in this research ADCIRC, an advanced three-dimensional circulation model, is based on the shallow water equations. ADCIRC provides elevation changes and velocity profiles that can be utilized by themselves or coupled with other models, such as water quality models, thus lending itself to a wide-variety of applications. Three research areas are investigated in this dissertation in an effort to improve the predictive capabilities of ADCIRC through improved numerics.Third, baroclinic models that are used to simulate density-driven flows require an accurate and stable computation of the baroclinic pressure gradient (BPG). In this study, four methods for computing the BPG are investigated, along with resolution requirements (horizontal and vertical). Numerical experiments thus far indicate that the z-coordinate method provides the least amount of error, and a hybrid method, which switches from sigma to z-coordinates at a prescribed depth, also shows promising results

Use of 1D Unsteady HEC-RAS in a Coupled System for Compound Flood Modeling: North Carolina Case Study

The research presented herein develops and compares an ADCIRC and ADCIRC/HEC-RAS (1D) paired model for the purpose of compound flood modeling within the Tar River and Pamlico Sound basins of North Carolina. Both the ADCIRC and 1D HEC-RAS models are capable of simulating river systems but differ in their underlying numerical formulations. A case-study comparison of each model’s ability to simulate flooding accurately and quickly in a riverine/estuarine system is investigated herein; results may serve as a valuable reference to forecasters and model developers. Individual models of the Tar River and Pamlico Sound area in North Carolina were used, and pairings of these models were devised to determine the benefits and drawbacks of using ADCIRC alone, or ADCIRC + 1D HEC-RAS, to simulate the response of the Tar River and Pamlico Sound during three test events: Hurricane Irene, Hurricane Floyd, and an unnamed April 2003 event. With increased emphasis on predicting total water levels, the results of this study can provide information for the possible development of similarly paired models for coastal river systems across the US and improve the body of knowledge about each model’s relative performance in riverine and estuarine areas.Ye

Urgent computing of storm surge for North Carolina's coast

Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. This latter element is that which induces the need for urgency in this area. In this paper, we outline the North Carolina Forecasting System (NCFS) for storm surge and waves for coastal North Carolina, which is threatened by tropical cyclones about once every three years. We initially used advanced cyberinfrastructure techniques (e.g., opportunistic grid computing) in an effort to provide timely guidance for storm surge and wave impacts. However, our experience has been that a distributed computing approach is not robust enough to consistently produce the real-time results that end users expect. As a result, our technical approach has shifted so that the reliable and timely delivery of forecast products has been guaranteed by provisioning dedicated computational resources as opposed to relying on opportunistic availability of external resources. Our experiences with this forecasting effort is discussed in this paper, with a focus on Hurricane Irene (2011) that impacted a substantial portion of the US east coast from North Carolina, up along the eastern seaboard, and into New England

Urgent computing of storm surge for North Carolina's coast

Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. This latter element is that which induces the need for urgency in this area. In this paper, we outline the North Carolina Forecasting System (NCFS) for storm surge and waves for coastal North Carolina, which is threatened by tropical cyclones about once every three years. We initially used advanced cyberinfrastructure techniques (e.g., opportunistic grid computing) in an effort to provide timely guidance for storm surge and wave impacts. However, our experience has been that a distributed computing approach is not robust enough to consistently produce the real-time results that end users expect. As a result, our technical approach has shifted so that the reliable and timely delivery of forecast products has been guaranteed by provisioning dedicated computational resources as opposed to relying on opportunistic availability of external resources. Our experiences with this forecasting effort is discussed in this paper, with a focus on Hurricane Irene (2011) that impacted a substantial portion of the US east coast from North Carolina, up along the eastern seaboard, and into New England

The CI-FLOW Project: A System for Total Water Level Prediction from the Summit to the Sea

Kildow et al. (2009) reported that coastal states support 81% of the U.S. population and generate 83 percent [$11.4 trillion (U.S. dollars) in 2007] of U.S. gross domestic product. Population trends show that a majority of coastal communities have transitioned from a seasonal, predominantly weekend, tourist-based economy to a year-round, permanently based, business economy where industry expands along shorelines and the workforce commutes from inland locations. As a result of this transition, costs associated with damage to the civil infrastructure and disruptions to local and regional economies due to coastal flooding events are escalating, pushing requirements for a new generation of flood prediction technologies and hydrologic decision support tools

An Integrated Scenario-Based Framework for Evacuation Modeling

Processes and cast study for creating a integrated scenario-based evacuation (ISE) framework

Not for School, but for Eternal Life: Representing Christ and Reaching the Campus Through Cooperative Ministries

Carroll College has a history rooted in faith. Founded by the Catholic Diocese of Helena in 1909, the school professes a “special obligation to provide for the spiritual needs of the college community” (Carroll College Mission Statement). Using several sources: Carroll’s mission statement, interviews, and the Bible, this thesis analyzes the challenges and potential opportunities to help Carroll College fulfill its mission to meet the spiritual need of its community. As a result, is argues that the College should provide the College Christian Fellowship (CCF) student slub better support on campus. Doing so will complement the work of the Campus Ministry department, which is understaffed and under-resourced to accomplish this goal. This study sheds light on the difficulties and the benefits of capitalizing on CCF while making sure that its role still aligns with Carroll College’s Mission Statement and scripture

The Study Of Rapid Mass Transport In Mammalian Cell Systems.

PhDPharmacologyUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/189806/2/7717984.pd