Global soybean trade - the geopolitics of a bean

Following a collaborative effort and with the support of The UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund (UKRI GCRF), the Trade, Development and the Environment Hub -- or simply Trade Hub, https://tradehub.earth/ -- has recently launched the report “Global Soybean Trade – The Geopolitics of a Bean”. Originally cultivated as a traditional staple food in China, soybean today is of the most important global commodities in international trade. The report examines the economics of the ‘soybean miracle’, exploring its complex – and often controversial – implications for people and ecosystems, and analysing how different institutions and stakeholders are addressing the growing sustainability concerns. This publication not only provide a comprehensive review of the existing publications and data, but also highlights some of the open questions that need to be addressed by Trade Hub partners and other stakeholders in order to increase the sustainability of the soybean supply chain, both globally and locally

A Machine Learning Decision Support System (DSS) for Neuroendocrine Tumor Patients Treated with Somatostatin Analog (SSA) Therapy

The application of machine learning (ML) techniques could facilitate the identification of predictive biomarkers of somatostatin analog (SSA) efficacy in patients with neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). We collected data from 74 patients with a pancreatic or gastrointestinal NET who received SSA as first-line therapy. We developed three classification models to predict whether the patient would experience a progressive disease (PD) after 12 or 18 months based on clinic-pathological factors at the baseline. The dataset included 70 samples and 15 features. We initially developed three classification models with accuracy ranging from 55% to 70%. We then compared ten different ML algorithms. In all but one case, the performance of the Multinomial Naive Bayes algorithm (80%) was the highest. The support vector machine classifier (SVC) had a higher performance for the recall metric of the progression-free outcome (97% vs. 94%). Overall, for the first time, we documented that the factors that mainly influenced progression-free survival (PFS) included age, the number of metastatic sites and the primary site. In addition, the following factors were also isolated as important: adverse events G3-G4, sex, Ki67, metastatic site (liver), functioning NET, the primary site and the stage. In patients with advanced NETs, ML provides a predictive model that could potentially be used to differentiate prognostic groups and to identify patients for whom SSA therapy as a single agent may not be sufficient to achieve a long-lasting PFS

A framework to understand the social impacts of agricultural trade

Open Access Article; Published online: 30 Aug 2022While international trade in agricultural commodities can spur economic development especially where governance is strong, there are also concerns about the local impacts of commodity production and their distribution. Previous frameworks have primarily focused on trade effects on environmental conditions in production regions, as well as economic growth and food security. Instead, we develop a conceptual framework for understanding the impact of agricultural trade on multidimensional wellbeing and equity. The purpose of the framework is to guide the analysis of the impacts of trade on people, by identifying the core concepts and organising the complexity of the local social impacts of global value chains. The framework is supported by evidence from studies on trade in soy, coffee, cocoa, and palm oil

Preferences for forest benefits: are distributive justice principles reflected in values for Ecosystem Services?

Forest resources have an important role in supporting the livelihood strategies of rural communities in Malawi, especially for the poorest village members, and can have an important equalising effect. The management system of forest ecosystems determines how those resources are distributed to local users and therefore influences total societal welfare. The current management policies in Malawi are evolving toward a community-based management scheme, i.e. co-management policies, where local communities become responsible for all the harvesting activities. The committee-based configuration adopted in Malawi establishes new local institutions responsible for the management and the distribution of forest resources. The aim of this PhD is to assess how the implementation of CBM influences the welfare of the local forest users both by determining the level of personal consumption and the fairness of the overall distribution using rational choice theory and economic valuation methods. The relative importance of the fairness of the overall distribution depends also on the procedures used to allocate decision-making power over forest resources. Therefore, this PhD evaluates also whether individual’s distributive behaviour is influenced by procedures, and its fairness. Finally, because the socio-ecological system is embedded in a broader ecological system this PhD performs an integrated assessment of the welfare impact of CBM policies on beneficiaries by quantifying the aggregate availability of forest resources given the ecological status of the forest and the total societal welfare according to how those resources are distributed to local users. This thesis demonstrates that the individual rational choices on how to distribute forest resources are determined both by self-interested preferences and societal values and that individuals are willing to forego some personal benefits to achieve a fairer outcome that benefit all community members. Indicating that individual’s welfare is influenced both by the total amount of forest products that can be consumed at personal level but also by the magnitude of resources distributed to others. However, the relevance of fairness concerns for the individual when choosing how to distribute resources between village members depends on the fairness of procedures employed in defining the decision-making roles. Finally, the thesis shows that the current consumption patterns are not ecologically sustainable and that without intervention many sub-areas of the forest reserve would be completely degraded in 15 years. Introducing co- management policies to limit consumption within sustainable levels would overall benefit the population as indicated by the welfare effects gain. We also show that different distributional rules are found to influence greatly the total welfare gains and how our welfare analysis approach can be used as a useful tool to inform decision-making when fairness and distributional rules are deemed as relevant for societal welfare

The Social Impacts of Soy Production: A Systematic Review

This report, as part of UKRI GCRF TRADE Hub’s work on the impact of global agricultural trade on people, presents a systematic literature review of the direct and indirect social impacts of soybean agricultural production for trade. The report employs the concept of multi-dimensional well-being to classify the various direct social impacts that have been found in the literature and the concept of ecosystem services to classify the indirect social impacts, i.e., contribution to well-being of natural ecosystems

The impacts of soy production on multi-dimensional well-being and ecosystem services: A systematic review

International trade in soybean has been increasing exponentially over the last 30 years, stimulating agricultural expansion and intensification, primarily in South America. Trade in soybean has been promoted by national and international agencies to stimulate economic development in low- and middle-income countries. Trade in soybean has generated an increase in GDP and average income in producing countries, but soybean production is also linked to negative effects on the well-being of local populations, such as land appropriation and increased social conflicts among communities. In addition, soybean production is linked to extensive deforestation and clearance of natural vegetation as well as water pollution due to intensive agricultural practices, which in turn has negative impacts on human well-being. As such, more information is needed to understand the range of negative and positive impacts of soybean production on people and the environment. This study presents a systematic literature review of the direct and indirect social-economic impacts of soybean agricultural production for trade. We employ the concept of multi-dimensional well-being to classify the various direct social impacts that have been found in the literature and the concept of ecosystem services to classify indirect social impacts, as the contribution of natural ecosystems to human well-being. The main finding of the review is that the empirical evidence for direct social impacts of soy production is scarce and mixed in terms of direction of impact. More tangible dimensions such as income, nutrition and living standards are more often positively impacted by soy trade, while more intangible dimensions such as freedom of choice and cultural value are found to be negatively affected. The empirical evidence for impacts on ecosystem services is more comprehensive and shows a clear picture of negative impacts associated with soybean production due to land use changes and deforestation, and agricultural intensification. There is hardly any evidence for the effectiveness of sustainable value chain policies.</p