Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate

Wissenschaftlicher Abschlussbericht zum mFUND-Projekt: EasyGSH-DB

Weitere Titelangaben: Erstellung anwendungsorientierter synoptischer Referenzdaten zur Geomorphologie, Sedimentologie und Hydrodynamik in der Deutschen Bucht (EasyGSH-DB) Gemeinsamer wissenschaftlicher Abschlussbericht mit Beiträgen aus allen fünf TeilprojektenIllustrationen, Diagramme, Karten Förderkennzeichen BMVI 19F2004A-D Verbundnummer 01178048Siehe auch FuE-Abschlussbericht der BAW https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11970/107374xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxDatasets Themengebiet - Bathymetrie - https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0002Datasets Themengebiet - Geomorphologie - https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0001Datasets Themengebiet - Hydrodynamik - https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0003Datasets Themengebiet - synoptische Hydrodynamik - https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.0004Datasets Themengebiet - Sedimentologie - https://doi.org/10.48437/02.2020.K2.7000.000

Structural study of an amorphous NiZr2 alloy by anomalous wide angle X-ray scattering and Reverse Monte Carlo simulations

The local atomic structure of an amorphous NiZr2 alloy was investigated using the anomalous wide-angle x-ray scattering (AWAXS), differential anomalous scattering (DAS) and reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) simulations techniques. The AWAXS measurements were performed at eight different incident photon energies, including some close to the Ni and Zr K edges. From the measurements eight total structure factor S(K,E) were derived. Using the AWAXS data four differential structure factors DSFi(K,Em,En) were derived, two about the Ni and Zr edges. The partial structure factors SNi-Ni(K), SNi-Zr(K) and SZr-Zr(K) were estimated by using two different methods. First, the S(K,E) and DSFi(K,Em,En) factors were combined and used in a matrix inversion process. Second, three S(K,E) factors were used as input data in the RMC technique. The coordination numbers and interatomic distances for the first neighbors extracted from the partial structure factors obtained by these two methods show a good agreement. By using the three-dimensional structure derived from the RMC simulations, the bond-angle distributions were calculated and they suggest the presence of distorted triangular-faced polyhedral units in the amorphous NiZr2 structure. We have used the Warren chemical short-range order parameter to evaluate the chemical short-range order for the amorphous NiZr2 alloy and for the NiZr2 compound. The calculated values show that the chemical short-range order found in these two materials is similar to that found in a solid solution.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. B, 8 figure

FUTURE EXTREME WAVES AT THE GERMAN BALTIC SEA COAST DERIVED FROM REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL RUNS

Information about possible changes of extreme wave heights are essential for the future safe design of coastal and flood protection structures likes dykes, flood protection dunes, revetments etc. In this study, scenarios of regional climate change up to 2100 are used for the evaluation of changes of wave conditions. Analyses on calculated significant wave heights derived from extreme value statistics are showing a different signal of change for the selected locations along the German Baltic Sea Coast. The results are showing that extreme wave heights with a return level of 200 years can increase up to +14%. But also a decrease of down to -14% were found compared to actual conditions, depending on the location and climate change scenario applied. At the location of Warnemünde a slight increasing trend for the change of extreme wave heights could be found for 3 of 4 scenario runs with a maximum increase of +7%

Future Changes in Wave Conditions at the German Baltic Sea Coast Based on a Hybrid Approach Using an Ensemble of Regional Climate Change Projections

In this study, the projected future long-term changes of the local wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast over the course of the 21st century are analyzed and assessed with special focus on model agreement, statistical significance and ranges/spread of the results. An ensemble of new regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the RCM REMO for three RCP forcing scenarios was used as input data. The outstanding feature of the simulations is that the data are available with a high horizontal resolution and at hourly timesteps which is a high temporal resolution and beneficial for the wind–wave modelling. A new data interface between RCM output data and wind–wave modelling has been developed. Suitable spatial aggregation methods of the RCM wind data have been tested and used to generate input for the calculation of waves at quasi deep-water conditions and at a mean water level with a hybrid approach that enables the fast compilation of future long-term time series of significant wave height, mean wave period and direction for an ensemble of RCM data. Changes of the average wind and wave conditions have been found, with a majority of the changes occurring for the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and at the end of the 21st century. At westerly wind-exposed locations mainly increasing values of the wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period have been noted. In contrast, at easterly wind-exposed locations, decreasing values are predominant. Regarding the changes of the mean wind and wave directions, westerly directions becoming more frequent. Additional research is needed regarding the long-term changes of extreme wave events, e.g., the choice of a best-fit extreme value distribution function and the spatial aggregation method of the wind data