Loss of Life Expectancy related to temporal evolution of PM2.5 considered within energy scenarios in Europe

International audiencePeople exposure to particulate matter can have various health effects as described in scientific publications in the area of observational epidemiology. This study estimates the Loss of Life Expectancy (LLE) related to PM2.5 concentrations corresponding to a selected baseline energy scenario derived from the GAINS model. Most often energy scenarios are defined as consistent pathways towards a long-term target defined by a set of criteria that describe a sustainable energy supply. This study accounts for the temporal evolution of PM2.5 concentrations along the time frame from 2005 till 2050. The analysis was carried out for 43 European countries with a spatial resolution of 50 x 50 km. LLE was considered over the whole life time of the population older than 30 years in year 2005. We propose an algorithm for the computation of LLE for population exposed to PM2.5 based on the approach recommended by the Task Force on Health described in IIASA's Report and accounting for the Pope exposure-risk parameter. The LLE computation is based on the difference between the life expectancy with no exposure to particulates and life expectancy with exposure to observed particulates. We considered in our algorithm the temporal evolutions of PM2.5 concentrations along the scenario, as well as population densities. LLE results were derived using different PM2.5 concentration profiles from 2005 to 2050. The first PM2.5 concentration profile corresponds to a constant PM2.5 concentration with values fixed to the 2005 situation. The second PM2.5 concentration profile corresponds to the temporal evolution of the selected energy scenario. LLE is then derived for both situations: the fixed PM2.5 concentrations case and the variable PM2.5 case as defined for the baseline scenario. LLE results are significantly different between the two cases with a decrease by half for most European countries. The Netherlands and Eastern Europe are the only regions where LLE exceed 300 days/person of life lost. Applying this new feature of temporal evolution of PM2.5 is of interest for assessing the potential impacts of scenarios accounting for the possible technical evolution of energy pathways. Results are provided on line in numerical form as well as in form of LLE maps

Human health impacts for Renewable Energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

International audienceThis article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario

Estimating particulate matter health impact related to the combustion of different fossil fuels

International audienceExposure to particulate matter (PM) in ambient air leads to adverse health effects. To design cost effective mitigation strategies, a thorough understanding of the sources of particulate matter is crucial. We have successfully generated a web map service that allows to access information on fuel dependent health effects due to particulate matter. For this purpose, the LOTOS-EUROS air pollution model was equipped with a source apportionment module that tracks the origin of the modelled particulate matter distributions throughout a simulation. Combined with a dedicated emission inventory PM2.5 maps specified by fuel type were generated for 2007-2009. These maps were combined with a health impact calculation to estimate Lost of Life Expectancy for each fuel categories. An user friendly web client was generated to access the results and use the web mapping service in an easy manner

The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA): environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

International audienceWith the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models, ...). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios

Estimating the loss of life expectancy attributable to PM2.5 emissions in Europe with the use of high special resolution modelling

International audiencePeople exposure to PMs can have various health effects which are widely described in scientific publications in the area of observational epidemiology and controlled human exposures [1]. This paper presents the preliminary results of the study on estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy (LLE) indicator conducted in the framework of the FP7 EnerGEO project. The method used for LLE calculation was based on the approach recommended by the Task Force on Health [2] and described in IIASA's Report [3]. The analysis was carried out for 33 European countries with a spatial resolution of 20x20 km. Only population older than 30 years was taken into account as recommended by Pope et al. [4]. The human health impact was considered over the whole life of the population. LLE are calculated for the modelling time horizon assuming 95 years lifespan of the cohort of age 30, for four starting years i.e.: 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. In order to perform calculation different input data were collected. Those includes i.a.: EMEP PM2.5 concentration data, SEDAC gridded population taken from SEDAC, UN cohort data from. The results are provided in numerical form as well as in form of LLE maps over Europe. The results show that the estimated health impact due to exposure to PM2.5 concentrations is significant with very large variations between countries. Generally, the highest LLE was found for the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and central Europe and the lowest for Ireland and Scandinavian countries. This simply reflects variation in exposure of people to PM concentration, i.e. low concentrations of PMs in Scandinavian countries. The results show, that in the period from 1990 to 2005 the number of days lost was decreased ca. 40%