Estimating the loss of life expectancy attributable to PM2.5 emissions in Europe with the use of high special resolution modelling

Abstract

International audiencePeople exposure to PMs can have various health effects which are widely described in scientific publications in the area of observational epidemiology and controlled human exposures [1]. This paper presents the preliminary results of the study on estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy (LLE) indicator conducted in the framework of the FP7 EnerGEO project. The method used for LLE calculation was based on the approach recommended by the Task Force on Health [2] and described in IIASA's Report [3]. The analysis was carried out for 33 European countries with a spatial resolution of 20x20 km. Only population older than 30 years was taken into account as recommended by Pope et al. [4]. The human health impact was considered over the whole life of the population. LLE are calculated for the modelling time horizon assuming 95 years lifespan of the cohort of age 30, for four starting years i.e.: 1990, 1995, 2000 and 2005. In order to perform calculation different input data were collected. Those includes i.a.: EMEP PM2.5 concentration data, SEDAC gridded population taken from SEDAC, UN cohort data from. The results are provided in numerical form as well as in form of LLE maps over Europe. The results show that the estimated health impact due to exposure to PM2.5 concentrations is significant with very large variations between countries. Generally, the highest LLE was found for the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and central Europe and the lowest for Ireland and Scandinavian countries. This simply reflects variation in exposure of people to PM concentration, i.e. low concentrations of PMs in Scandinavian countries. The results show, that in the period from 1990 to 2005 the number of days lost was decreased ca. 40%