The evaluation of risky investment projects

Predmet ovog istraživanja su rizični investicioni projekti, za koje nije dovoljno primeniti samo neki od metoda ocene projekata (NPV, AE, IRR itd), jer je rizik donošenja pogrešne odluke znatan. Zbog toga se u ovakvim slučajevima moraju primeniti neki drugi metodi koji uzimaju u obzir rizik projekta. U praksi se najčešće za ocenu projekata koriste metode NPV i IRR. Međutim, za ocenu rizičnih projekata ove metode ne mogu da daju pouzdanu ocenu o isplativosti projekta. Zbog toga se u ovom radu predlaže jedna druga kombinacija metoda, koja bi dala pouzdaniju sliku o projektu. Na konkretnom primeru urađena je NPV analiza, senzitivna analiza i Monte Karlo simulacija. Na taj način se došlo do određenih rezultata koji omogućuju pouzdanije ocenjivanje inženjerskog investicionog projekta, što predstavlja doprinos ovog rada.The subject of this investigation are risky investment projects that some project evaluation methods (NPV, AE, IRR etc) are insufficient to be applied to, because the risk of wrong decision-making is considerable. That is the reason why in such cases some other methods taking into account project risk must be implemented. In practice, the NPV and IRR methods are most often used for project evaluation. However, these methods cannot provide reliable evaluation of project cost-effectiveness for the case of risky projects. Therefore, in this paper another combination of methods is proposed that would give a more reliable picture of the project. Using a concrete example, NPV analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were done. In this way, certain results were arrived at providing a more reliable evaluation of an engineering investment project, which represents the contribution of this paper

Insight into the regional distribution and geographic setting of the Vinča and Bubanj-Sălcuţa-Krivodol settlements in the Central Balkans and its implications

U radu su predstavljeni rezultati istraživanja regionalne distribucije i geografskog položaja naselja iz 5. milenijuma pre n. e. na centralnom Balkanu. U obzir je uzeto 144 lokaliteta, tj. 142 naselja koja pripadaju vinčanskoj kulturi i Bubanj-Salkuca-Krivodol (BSK) kulturnom kompleksu na prostoru od Podunavlja do gornjeg toka Južne Morave. Njihovo mapiranje pomoću Geografskog informacionog sistema (GIS) pokazalo je da se manje ili veće koncentracije naselja mogu uočiti u šest regija današnje Srbije. Posmatrana je teritorija poluprečnika 5 km od lokaliteta i ispitivani su: regionalna distribucija naselja, nadmorske visine, topografske odlike i zemljišni tipovi u neposrednoj blizini i u širem arealu oko naselja. Analiza regionalne distribucije naselja u dva sukcesivna perioda pokazala je da je čitava strategija naseljavanja u drugoj polovini 5. milenijuma pre n. e. bila usmerena ka bakrom bogatoj regiji istočne Srbije, koja je u kasnom neolitu bila retko naseljena, što je veoma slično trendu konstatovanom u južnim oblastima Balkanskog poluostrva. Može se zaključiti da su BSK naselja manje brojna, raštrkana i arheološki slabije vidljiva, te je populacioni pad, kao što je ranije sugerisano, u ranom eneolitu vrlo moguć. Ranoeneolitska naselja su ravnomernije raspoređena prema nadmorskim visinama i topografiji, odlikuje ih naglašena dihotomija u topografiji (naselje na ravnom / naselje na platou dominantnog uzvišenja), a evidentirana je usmerenost ka širem dijapazonu lokalnih resursa, što je sugerisalo veću međusobnu povezanost između naselja u ranom eneolitu. Nove strategije se uvode u zemljoradnju, što se ogleda u naseljavanju kontakt zone između aluvijalnog i brdovitog predela, a odlikuju ih dva ili više plodnih zemljišnih tipova. Naseljavaju se ranije periferne oblasti pogodne za razvoj pastoralne ekonomije. Porast broja naselja usmerenih ka zemljištima nepogodnim za kultivaciju potvrđuje ranije pretpostavke o uvećanom značaju stočarstva i postojanju ekonomski specijalizovanih i kooperativnih naselja u ranom eneolitu. Ovo istraživanje je ukazalo na to da se naselja BSK kulturnog kompleksa (a ne ona iz kasnih faza vinčanske kulture) u tim marginalnim oblastima, udaljenim od glavnih vodotokova, odlikuju raznovrsnijim izborom za položaj naselja i okolnim resursima. Prema tome, naseljavanje perifernih oblasti tokom ranog eneolita javlja se usled procesa društveno-ekonomske transformacije neolitskih društava, što podrazumeva intenzifikaciju proizvodnje i korišćenja resursa, kao i inovacije u metalurgiji, zemljoradnji i stočarstvu. Štaviše, uočen je visok nivo kontrole nad komunikacijama i lokalnim resursima - integracija, specijalizacija, komplementarne i kooperativne funkcije u ekonomiji susednih naselja u određenim mikroregijama i grupa naselja u susednim mikroregijama.The paper presents the results of research on the regional distribution and geographic setting of the 5th millennium BCE settlements in the Central Balkans. The research encompasses two successive archaeological cultures in the area between the Danube Valley and the upper course of the Južna Morava River and compares the regional distribution of the settlements and their topographic and pedological aspects. It has been concluded that the relocation occured on a regional level, meaning the abandonment or a reduced population of the regions which were densely populated during the Vinča culture. The emphasised dichotomy in the topographic type of the settlements with more or less equally distributed settlements compared to the altitude and an increased focus on soils unsuitable for cultivation suggest the utilisation of a wider range of local resources and a greater degree of mutual connections between the BSK settlements. The observed trends are interpreted in correlation with the previous knowledge on economic strategies of the population of the Central Balkans

The design of hybrid system for servicing process support in small businesses

U radu je dat prikaz hibridnog sistema u kojem Ekspertni sistem (ES) predstavlja komponentu Sistema za podršku odlučivanju. Hibridni sistem je razvijen za potrebe dijagnostike kvara, što obavlja ekspertni sistem, a izlaz odnosno dijagnostifikovana neispravna komponenta predstavlja ulaz u sistem za podršku odlučivanju u kojem se na osnovu višekriterijumske analize vrši izbor dobavljača za zamenu neispravne komponente. Hibridni sistem razvijen je za dijagnostifikovanje kvara kod motokultivatora, motorne testere i kosilice za travu, a primenjen je u malom preduzeću koje je uvoznik, distributer i obavlja servisiranje navedenih proizvoda. Konkretni rezultati primene hibridnog sistema ogledaju se kroz skraćeno vreme dijagnoze kvara, brzu nabavku i zamenu neispravnih komponenti, olakšan servis i kvalitet usluge kupcima.The paper gives a survey of a hybrid system, where Expert System (ES) output represents Decision Support System (DSS) input. The hybrid system has been developed for the needs of fault diagnosis performed by ES, while the output i.e. a diagnosed faulty component is DSS input, where supplier selection for faulty component replacement is made, using a multicriteria analysis. The hybrid system has been developed for motocultivator, motor saw and grass mower fault diagnosis. The system was applied in a small company which is an importer and a distributor and performs servicing of the mentioned products. Concrete results mirror themselves in a shortened period of time for fault diagnosis and fast supply and replacement of faulty components, facilitated and better quality services for customers

Industrial engineering methods in management of motor vehicle breakdowns behaviour analysis

U radu je izložena metodologija grupisanja i obrade podataka o otkazima na motornim vozilima u posmatranom uzorku. Primenom neparametarskog testa Kolmogorov-Smirnov, moguće je ustanoviti jednakost raspodela izabranih vrsta pojava otkaza motornog vozila. Korišćenjem generativnog polinoma, moguće je ustanoviti uticaj nezavisnih slučajnih veličina koje imaju nepoznatu raspodelu. Primenom proizvoda polinoma sa kompleksnim koeficijentima moguće je odrediti funkciju za predviđanje određenih pojava otkaza u okviru sistema održavanja vozila. Rezultati primene funkcije za predviđanje određenih pojava otkaza na posmatranom uzorku motornih vozila omogućavaju praćenje ponašanja odabranih pojava otkaza na posmatranim motornim vozilima.The paper presents the methodology of grouping and processing of the data related to the motor vehicles' breakdowns in the observed sample. In order to perform statistical research with possible motor vehicle behaviour prediction, it is needed to have perennial tracking of selected population features. Using a non-parametric statistical Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, it is possible to identify the distribution affinity of particularly selected vehicle features in terms of breakdowns phenomena. By the introduction of advanced polynomials computation, it is possible to determine the function for prediction of certain vehicle breakdowns in the vehicle maintenance system. The results of the application of the function for prediction of certain vehicle breakdowns in the observed sample of motor vehicles allow monitoring of the behaviour of certain vehicle breakdowns. By the introduction of polynomials concentration, it is possible to overcome the problem of handling with generative polynomial functions with a high degree

Industrial engineering methods in management of motor vehicle breakdowns behaviour analysis

U radu je izložena metodologija grupisanja i obrade podataka o otkazima na motornim vozilima u posmatranom uzorku. Primenom neparametarskog testa Kolmogorov-Smirnov, moguće je ustanoviti jednakost raspodela izabranih vrsta pojava otkaza motornog vozila. Korišćenjem generativnog polinoma, moguće je ustanoviti uticaj nezavisnih slučajnih veličina koje imaju nepoznatu raspodelu. Primenom proizvoda polinoma sa kompleksnim koeficijentima moguće je odrediti funkciju za predviđanje određenih pojava otkaza u okviru sistema održavanja vozila. Rezultati primene funkcije za predviđanje određenih pojava otkaza na posmatranom uzorku motornih vozila omogućavaju praćenje ponašanja odabranih pojava otkaza na posmatranim motornim vozilima.The paper presents the methodology of grouping and processing of the data related to the motor vehicles' breakdowns in the observed sample. In order to perform statistical research with possible motor vehicle behaviour prediction, it is needed to have perennial tracking of selected population features. Using a non-parametric statistical Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, it is possible to identify the distribution affinity of particularly selected vehicle features in terms of breakdowns phenomena. By the introduction of advanced polynomials computation, it is possible to determine the function for prediction of certain vehicle breakdowns in the vehicle maintenance system. The results of the application of the function for prediction of certain vehicle breakdowns in the observed sample of motor vehicles allow monitoring of the behaviour of certain vehicle breakdowns. By the introduction of polynomials concentration, it is possible to overcome the problem of handling with generative polynomial functions with a high degree

Applying regression models to predict business results

Za savremenu poslovnu praksu rezultati predviđanja poslovanja su od suštinskog značaja za evaluaciju buduće finansijske efikasnosti preduzeća. Postupak planiranja i predviđanja naročito je značajan za preduzeća koja posluju u uslovima neizvesnosti. U radu je izložen primer planiranja i predviđanja poslovnih rezultata u osiguranju prilikom proračuna trenda premije linearnom i nelinearnom regresijom. Zbog neizvesnosti koja prati trenutak nastanka i iznosa štete neophodno je osigurati dovoljno sredstava za pokriće rizika. Za usklađivanje sredstava i obaveza potrebno je predvideti buduće kretanje premije po vrstama osiguranja, što čini osnovni koncept razvoja i poslovanja osiguravajućih društava.In terms of modern business practice, business prediction results are crucially important for evaluation of future financial performance of a company. Planning and prediction procedures are especially important for companies operating under uncertainty. This paper shows an example of planning and prediction of business results in insurance when calculating premium trend by use of linear and nonlinear regression. Due to the uncertainty associated with the moment of claim occurrence and claim amount, it is necessary to secure enough assets to cover the risks. Asset-liability matching requires the prediction of future premium movement per insurance lines which represents the basic concept of development and operation of insurance companies

Solving complex management problems by applying decision support systems

U cilju obezbeđenja da se poslovni system efikasno prilagođava promenama na tržištu, mora se posvetiti posebna pažnja procesima rešavanja kompleksnih menadžerskih problema. S obzirom da za jednostavnije probleme u poslovnoj praksi postoje utvrđene procedure i načini za njihovo rešavanje, od značaja je da se utvrdi procedura za rešavanje kompleksnih menadžerskih problema. Rešavanje kompleksnih menadžerskih problema sprovedeno po utvrđenoj proceduri, dakle po definisanim fazama, olakšava donosiocu odluke čitav postupak jer ga upućuje kako da organizuje aktivnosti na rešavanju problema skraćuje vreme rešavanja problema, povećava kvalitet donošenih odluka a samim tim i manju verovatnoću pojave nepovoljnih rezultata. U radu je opisana primena sistema za podršku odlučivanju za rešavanje kompleksnih menadžerskih problema u poslovnim sistemima. Primena sistema za podršku odlučivanju ima za cilj da donosiocima odluka pomogne u procesu rešavanja kompleksnih menadžerskih problema i da poboljša kvalitet odluka.In order to provide efficient adjustment of the business system to the changes in the market, one must pay special attention to the processes of solving complex management problems. Considering that there are established procedures and ways of solving simple problems in business practice, it is also important to establish a procedure for solving complex management problems. The solving of complex management problems conducted by established procedure, i.e. by defined phases, makes the whole act a lot more easier for the decision maker, because it directs him how to organize the problem solving activities, shortens the time of problem solving increases the quality of decisions made, whereby the unwanted results are less likely to happen. The paper describes the application of decision support systems to solving complex management problems in business systems. The aim of decision support system application is to help the decision makers in the process of solving complex management problems and to improve the quality of decisions made in such circumstances

The economic and social importance of saline soils and saltwaters during the late neolithic of the Pannonian plain and the central Balkans

The importance of salt in human and animal diets suggests that the local resources of saline soils, watercourses, and marshes with saline water had to be well known to past populations. Based on the analysis of the environs of a large number of Late Neolithic and Early Eneolithic sites, this research assumes the great importance of such resources. This paper examines the spatial relationships between settlements and these resources, in the example of five Late Neolithic settlements from the territories of the Pannonian Plain and the Central Balkans. The goals of the research are to provide an initial step in the reconstruction of potential locations for salt exploitation, and provide a better understanding of each settlement and, subsequently, its role and function in the local Neolithic settlement system. The research considers previously published results of the pedological analysis of the settlement environments and archaeological investigations of the settlements. If certain micro-regions and regions did not provide possibilities for the extraction of salt for both animal and human utilisation, salt, and probably cattle, had to be procured through exchange networks. However, if livestock could not be grazed in areas abundant in salt, then salt would have to be added to the animals’ diet. We conclude that Late Neolithic settlements should not be observed in isolation, but rather аs parts of wider settlement systems including exchange networks with salt as a major commodity. This represents one of the crucial factors for the understanding of cultural development during the 5th millennium BC

Solving complex management problems by applying decision support systems

U cilju obezbeđenja da se poslovni system efikasno prilagođava promenama na tržištu, mora se posvetiti posebna pažnja procesima rešavanja kompleksnih menadžerskih problema. S obzirom da za jednostavnije probleme u poslovnoj praksi postoje utvrđene procedure i načini za njihovo rešavanje, od značaja je da se utvrdi procedura za rešavanje kompleksnih menadžerskih problema. Rešavanje kompleksnih menadžerskih problema sprovedeno po utvrđenoj proceduri, dakle po definisanim fazama, olakšava donosiocu odluke čitav postupak jer ga upućuje kako da organizuje aktivnosti na rešavanju problema skraćuje vreme rešavanja problema, povećava kvalitet donošenih odluka a samim tim i manju verovatnoću pojave nepovoljnih rezultata. U radu je opisana primena sistema za podršku odlučivanju za rešavanje kompleksnih menadžerskih problema u poslovnim sistemima. Primena sistema za podršku odlučivanju ima za cilj da donosiocima odluka pomogne u procesu rešavanja kompleksnih menadžerskih problema i da poboljša kvalitet odluka.In order to provide efficient adjustment of the business system to the changes in the market, one must pay special attention to the processes of solving complex management problems. Considering that there are established procedures and ways of solving simple problems in business practice, it is also important to establish a procedure for solving complex management problems. The solving of complex management problems conducted by established procedure, i.e. by defined phases, makes the whole act a lot more easier for the decision maker, because it directs him how to organize the problem solving activities, shortens the time of problem solving increases the quality of decisions made, whereby the unwanted results are less likely to happen. The paper describes the application of decision support systems to solving complex management problems in business systems. The aim of decision support system application is to help the decision makers in the process of solving complex management problems and to improve the quality of decisions made in such circumstances

Organizational and management change in industry 4.0

Key elements of Industry 4.0 are collaborative innovation, comprehensive integration, IoT, data driven and organizational change. This paper focus is analysis organizational change in new business environment. Management system in industry 4.0 can be viewed through three cycles: strategy, element and management cycle. Strategy cycle addresses on developing sustainable competitiveness or new capability. Element cycle is based on data driven-technology, business process and organizational structure. Management cycle is based on leadership role. Element cycle is analyzed, concrete organizational structure transformation to minimum viable organization (MVO) and management support for this process. Steps, phases and concepts for achieving MVO are discussed in this paper