Assessing the Impact of Industrial Oil Development, Human Population Growth, and Post-Conflict Regrowth in an African Biodiversity Hotspot

Understanding the drivers of human population growth and landscape fragmentation surrounding protected areas is vital to the success of conservation initiatives worldwide. However, the drivers of land cover change and population growth can be complex. While natural population growth is a primary cause of population growth in Africa, migration due to major anthropogenic events is increasingly common in Sub-Saharan Africa. Unprecedented mineral and oil extraction is currently occurring in Africa, often in areas of high conservation importance. Additionally, conflict often plays a large role in human migration through refugee resettlement, and many people in the region are now moving in hopes of economic improvements. I used a mixed-methods approach to understand the landscape level impacts of industrial oil development, armed conflict, and human migration has had on the Murchison Falls Conservation Area (MFCA), in northwestern Uganda. Using land cover mapping, historical gridded population data, and stakeholder interviews, I assessed changes in land cover fragmentation and conversion in 2002-2014, and quantified changes in human population density in the districts surrounding MFCA in 1969-2014. I found that that the three oil-impacted districts have a unique and increasing population growth trend compared to the non-oil impacted districts and the national average of Uganda. Population density in oil-impacted districts increased by 73%, while non-oil impacted districts increased by 29%. These districts were also marked with higher proportional increases in total developed land and land cover fragmentation in the natural land cover class compared to non-oil impacted districts. The communities in oil-impacted districts are facing distinct challenges related to land tenure security, human health, compensation, and inter-ethnic relations. Post-conflict repopulation and industrial agriculture growth also had a major impact on both agricultural expansion, as well as inter-community conflicts due to landholder rights and land grabbing. In the district of the study area most impacted by post-conflict regrowth, agriculture increased by 95% between 2002 and 2016. This study provides an increased understanding of how oil and other major anthropogenic events can shape and alter human-environment interactions outside of a globally important protected area

Setting a research agenda to improve community health: An inclusive mixed-methods approach in Northern Uganda.

BackgroundThe United Nations Sustainable Development Goals stress the importance of equitable partnerships in research and practice that integrate grass-roots knowledge, leadership, and expertise. However, priorities for health research in low-and-middle income countries are set almost exclusively by external parties and priorities, while end-users remain "researched on" not "researched with". This paper presents the first stage of a Community-Based Participatory Research-inspired project to engage communities and public-health end-users in setting a research agenda to improve health in their community.MethodsPhotovoice was used in Kuc, Gulu District, Uganda to engage community members in the selection of a research topic for future public health research and intervention. Alcohol-Use Disorders emerged from this process the health issue that most negatively impacts the community. Following identification of this issue, a cross-sectional survey was conducted using the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (n = 327) to triangulate Photovoice findings and to estimate the prevalence of Alcohol-Use Disorders in Kuc. Logistic regression was used to test for associations with demographic characteristics and Alcohol-Use Disorders.ResultsPhotovoice generated four prominent themes, including alcohol related issues, sanitation and compound cleanliness, water quality and access, and infrastructure. Alcohol-Use Disorders were identified by the community as the most important driver of poor health. Survey results indicated that 23.55% of adults in Kuc had a probable Alcohol Use Disorder, 16.45 percentage points higher than World Health Organization estimates for Uganda.ConclusionsCommunity members engaged in the participatory, bottom-up approach offered by the research team to develop a research agenda to improve health in the community. Participants honed in on the under-researched and underfunded topic of Alcohol-Use Disorders. The findings from Photovoice were validated by survey results, thereby solidifying the high prevalence of Alcohol-Use Disorders as the health outcome that will be targeted through future long-term research and partnership

Implications of Spatial Data Variations for Protected Areas Management: An Example from East Africa

Geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies have become an important tool for visualizing conservation management and developing solutions to problems associated with conservation. When multiple organizations separately develop spatial data representations of protected areas, implicit error arises due to variation between data sets. We used boundary data produced by three conservation organizations (International Union for the Conservation of Nature, World Resource Institute, and Uganda Wildlife Authority), for seven Ugandan parks, to study variation in the size represented and the location of boundaries. We found variation in the extent of overlapping total area encompassed by the three data sources, ranging from miniscule (0.4 %) differences to quite large ones (9.0 %). To underscore how protected area boundary discrepancies may have implications to protected area management, we used a landcover classification, defining crop, shrub, forest, savanna, and grassland. The total area in the different landcover classes varied most in smaller protected areas (those less than 329 km2), with forest and cropland area estimates varying up to 65 %. The discrepancies introduced by boundary errors could, in this hypothetical case, generate erroneous findings and could have a significant impact on conservation, such as local-scale management for encroachment and larger-scale assessments of deforestation

The impact of industrial oil development on a protected area landscape: demographic and social change at Murchison Falls Conservation Area, Uganda

Unprecedented mineral and oil extraction is occurring in Africa, often in important areas of conservation. This is especially true in the Murchison Falls Conservation Area (MFCA) in northwestern Uganda. We assessed land fragmentation and conversion between 2002 and 2014 and quantified changes in human population density in the districts surrounding MFCA between 1969 and 2014 to understand landscape level impacts of oil development on the MFCA landscape. We found that three districts with ongoing oil development have increased population more rapidly (+ 69.3%) than districts without oil development (+ 27.6%), as well as the national average of Uganda (+ 41.5%). These districts also had higher proportional increases in total developed land cover and fragmentation in natural land cover. This study provides an increased understanding of how oil can shape human-environment interactions outside of globally important protected areas

Topographic and spectral data resolve land cover misclassification to distinguish and monitor wetlands in western Uganda

Wetlands provide vital wildlife habitat and ecosystem services, but changes in human land use has made them one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems. Although wetlands are generally protected by law, growing human populations increasingly drain and clear them to provide agricultural land, especially in tropical Africa. Managing and conserving wetlands requires accurately monitoring their spatial and temporal extent, often using remote sensing, but distinguishing wetlands from other land covers can be difficult. Here, we report on a method to separate wetlands dominated by papyrus (Cyperus papyrus L.) from spectrally similar grasslands dominated by elephant grass (Pennisetum purpureum Schumach.). We tested whether topographic, spectral, and temperature data improved land cover classification within and around Kibale National Park, a priority conservation area in densely populated western Uganda. Slope and reflectance in the mid-IR range best separated the combined papyrus/elephant grass pixels (average accuracy: 86%). Using a time series of satellite images, we quantified changes in six land covers across the landscape from 1984 to 2008 (papyrus, elephant grass, forest, mixed agriculture/bare soil/short grass, mixed tea/shrub, and water). We found stark differences in how land cover changed inside versus outside the park, with particularly sharp changes next to the park boundary. Inside the park, changes in land cover varied with location and management history: elephant grass areas decreased by 52% through forest regeneration but there was no net difference in papyrus areas. Outside the park, elephant grass and papyrus areas decreased by 61% and 39%, mostly converted to agriculture. Our method and findings are particularly relevant in light of social, biotic, and abiotic changes in western Uganda, as interactions between climate change, infectious disease, and changing human population demographics and distribution are predicted to intensify existing agricultural pressure on natural areas

The impact of industrial oil development on a protected area landscape: population pressure and struggles for land at Murchison Falls Conservation Area, Uganda.

Unprecedented mineral and oil extraction is occurring in Africa, often in important areas of conservation. This is especially true in the Murchison Falls Conservation Area (MFCA) in northwestern Uganda. We assessed land fragmentation and conversion between 2002 and 2014 and quantified changes in human population density in the districts surrounding MFCA between 1969 and 2014 to understand landscape level impacts of oil development on the MFCA landscape. We found that three districts with ongoing oil development have increased population more rapidly (+ 69.3%) than districts without oil development (+ 27.6%), as well as the national average of Uganda (+ 41.5%). These districts also had higher proportional increases in total developed land cover and fragmentation in natural land cover. This study provides an increased understanding of how oil can shape human-environment interactions outside of globally important protected areas

Perceptions of risk in communities near parks in an African biodiversity hotspot

Understanding conservation and livelihood threats in park landscapes is important to informing conservation policy. To identify threats, we examined perceived risks of residents living near three national parks in Uganda. We used cross-sectional household data to document, rank, and measure severity of perceived risks. Three risk categories, grouped into protected area, climate, and health, were cited by 80 % of respondents and received the highest severity scores. Elevation, proximity to the park, local forest loss, recent population change, and measures of poverty were the most important variables in predicting whether or not an individual identified these risks as the most or second most severe risk. Health issues were cited throughout the landscape, while problems attributed to climate (mainly insufficient rainfall) were reported to be most severe farther from the park. Increased population density was associated with increased perceived risk of health challenges, but decreased perceived risks attributed to the park and climate. Participatory risk mapping provides the opportunity to make standardized comparisons across sites, to help identify commonalities and differences, as a first step to examining the degree to which conservation management might address some of these local challenges and where mitigation techniques might be transferable between different sites or conflict scenarios

Now there is no land: a story of ethnic migration in a protected area landscape in western Uganda

Migration is a major factor shaping protected area landscapes. Combining historical narratives with interview, census, and satellite data, we investigate the ways in which migration has transformed the landscape surrounding Kibale National Park in western Uganda. We show that the region has gone from sparsely populated bushland to densely settled subsistence agricultural landscape occupied by tens of thousands of small-scale farming households since the last half of the twentieth century. Population density closer to the park has grown to 1.5 times higher than places more distant from the park. Migration to areas near the park has not necessarily been driven by economic benefits from the park itself, but rather by important push and pull factors at different scales. Results indicate that understanding the social and cultural underpinnings of human migration to, and environmental change along, the borders of protected areas is fundamental to developing appropriate people–park policy as a result of neighboring land use intensification brought about by changing demographics