Who defaults on their home mortgage?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Pairing the NYSBD's data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) enables us to identify the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages (in New York State). Like many previous studies, we find strong racial and ethnic disparities in lending practices, but we do not find conclusive evidence that HMDA-measurable forms of discrimination increased a borrower's probability of default. After controlling for other factors, we find that the interest rates charged to black and Latino borrowers tended to be higher than the ones charged to their white and non-Latino counterparts. This may be one reason why blacks and Latinos tend to default at a higher rate, but other factors, such as the tendency of black and Latino borrowers to take out larger loans than their white and non-Latino counterparts, may also have contributed to the higher default rate among black and Latino borrowers.mortgage; default; foreclosure; discrimination

Essays on Economic Policy: Income Inequality and Health Insurance

This dissertation contains economic analyses of two critical social issues facing the United States at the dawn of the 21st century: income inequality and the affordability of health insurance. The chapter on income inequality uses the Solow Model of economic growth to model the evolution of inequality over time. In steady state, differences in household saving rates generate differences in household capital income. Households that save more accumulate more capital and have higher steady-state income. Tax policy affects the distribution of income through its influence on household saving rates. Increasing the tax rate on labor income causes a greater percentage decrease in the steady-state saving rates of relatively low savers, thus increasing pre-tax income inequality. Conversely, increasing the tax rate on capital income reduces pre-tax income inequality because it causes a greater percentage decrease in the steady-state saving rates of relatively high savers. Empirical tests of the model using data from the March Current Population Survey and NBER\u27s TAXSIM model suggest that higher taxes on wage income are associated with higher levels of income inequality. A high degree of correlation among the average marginal tax rates prevents us from drawing inferences about the effect that taxation of capital income has on inequality. The chapter on health insurance examines states\u27 efforts to make health insurance more accessible and affordable to small employers by restricting insurers\u27 ability to set premium rates on the basis of health status and other factors which predict a group\u27s future medical needs. The chapter presents evidence that rating restrictions reduce health insurance coverage rates and increase market concentration in the insurance industry. From the perspective of a public policymaker however, such reforms may still be desirable if they increase the ability of less healthy individuals to obtain and afford health insurance coverage

Forecasting the New York State Economy with “Terraced” VARs and Coincident Indices

This paper introduces “Terraced” Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling, which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts. In an application of our Terraced VAR framework, we have estimated coincident indices of economic activity for the United States, New York State and the six largest metropolitan areas of New York State and incorporated them into Terraced VARs, which forecast the unemployment rate, total non-farm employment, real wages and average hours worked in manufacturing in those regions

Who defaults on their home mortgage?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Pairing the NYSBD's data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) enables us to identify the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages (in New York State). Like many previous studies, we find strong racial and ethnic disparities in lending practices, but we do not find conclusive evidence that HMDA-measurable forms of discrimination increased a borrower's probability of default. After controlling for other factors, we find that the interest rates charged to black and Latino borrowers tended to be higher than the ones charged to their white and non-Latino counterparts. This may be one reason why blacks and Latinos tend to default at a higher rate, but other factors, such as the tendency of black and Latino borrowers to take out larger loans than their white and non-Latino counterparts, may also have contributed to the higher default rate among black and Latino borrowers

Who enters the foreclosure process?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Our analysis of the NYSBD data suggests that borrowers in default who took larger loans are more likely to progress to a foreclosure filing. It also suggests that reducing principal balances may reduce the foreclosure rate, but might have an adverse effect on the mortgage industry. Given the frequent criticism of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), it is no surprise that defaulted borrowers whose mortgages were modified via HAMP progress to a lis pendens filing a higher rate than defaulted borrowers without a modification or with a non-HAMP modification. After controlling for delinquency length (and other factors) however, we find that the HAMP program may have been effective in helping defaulted borrowers avoid foreclosure

Who enters the foreclosure process?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). The data enables us to identify the financial characteristics that make a defaulted borrower more (or less) likely to enter the foreclosure process. Our analysis of the NYSBD data suggests that borrowers in default who took larger loans are more likely to progress to foreclosure. It also suggests that reducing principal balances may reduce the foreclosure rate, but might have an adverse effect on the mortgage industry. Given the frequent criticism of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), it is no surprise that defaulted borrowers whose mortgages were modified via HAMP progress to a lis pendens filing a higher rate than defaulted borrowers without a modification or with a non-HAMP modification. After controlling for delinquency length (and other factors) however, we find that the HAMP program may have been effective in helping defaulted borrowers avoid foreclosure

Who defaults on their home mortgage?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Pairing the NYSBD's data with data on originations from the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) enables us to identify the race and ethnicity of borrowers who defaulted on their home mortgages (in New York State). Like many previous studies, we find strong racial and ethnic disparities in lending practices, but we do not find conclusive evidence that HMDA-measurable forms of discrimination increased a borrower's probability of default. After controlling for other factors, we find that the interest rates charged to black and Latino borrowers tended to be higher than the ones charged to their white and non-Latino counterparts. This may be one reason why blacks and Latinos tend to default at a higher rate, but other factors, such as the tendency of black and Latino borrowers to take out larger loans than their white and non-Latino counterparts, may also have contributed to the higher default rate among black and Latino borrowers

Who enters the foreclosure process?

Since February 2010, detailed information on every home mortgage default and foreclosure in New York State must be filed with the New York State Banking Department (NYSBD). Our analysis of the NYSBD data suggests that borrowers in default who took larger loans are more likely to progress to a foreclosure filing. It also suggests that reducing principal balances may reduce the foreclosure rate, but might have an adverse effect on the mortgage industry. Given the frequent criticism of the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), it is no surprise that defaulted borrowers whose mortgages were modified via HAMP progress to a lis pendens filing a higher rate than defaulted borrowers without a modification or with a non-HAMP modification. After controlling for delinquency length (and other factors) however, we find that the HAMP program may have been effective in helping defaulted borrowers avoid foreclosure

Economic Dimensions of the Foreclosure Crisis: A Focus on the New York City MSA

Employing Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data on loan originations from 2004 – 2010 and 2010 New York State preforeclosure filing notices, this study seeks to identify the correlation between some characteristics of census tracts and the distribution of pre-foreclosure filing notices and high cost loans within the New York City metropolitan area from 2006 through 2012. The findings are examined within the context of the census tracts within which borrowers resided. American Community Survey data on employment-population ratios, poverty rates, and median household income were then matched to our HMDA-PFF dataset to obtain a measure of the relationship of particular census tract variables to default rates. Our analysis of the data finds that differences in census tract characteristics have a statistically significant effect on default and foreclosure patterns

Essays on economic policy: Income inequality and health insurance

The chapter on income inequality uses the Solow Model of economic growth to model the evolution of inequality over time. In steady state, differences in household saving rates generate differences in household capital income. Households that save more accumulate more capital and have higher steady-state income. Tax policy affects the distribution of income through its influence on household saving rates. Increasing the tax rate on labor income causes a greater percentage decrease in the steady-state saving rates of relatively low savers, thus increasing pre-tax income inequality. Conversely, increasing the tax rate on capital income reduces pre-tax income inequality because it causes a greater percentage decrease in the steady-state saving rates of relatively high savers. Empirical tests of the model using data from the March Current Population Survey and NBER’s TAXSIM model suggest that higher taxes on wage income are associated with higher levels of income inequality. A high degree of correlation among the average marginal tax rates prevents us from drawing inferences about the effect that taxation of capital income has on inequality. The chapter on health insurance examines states’ efforts to make health insurance more accessible and affordable to small employers by restricting insurers’ ability to set premium rates on the basis of health status and other factors which predict a group’s future medical needs. The chapter presents evidence that rating restrictions reduce health insurance coverage rates and increase market concentration in the insurance industry. From the perspective of a public policymaker however, such reforms may still be desirable if they increase the ability of less healthy individuals to obtain and afford health insurance coverage