Infection Curve Flattening via Targeted Interventions and Self-Isolation

Understanding the impact of network clustering and small-world properties on epidemic spread can be crucial in developing effective strategies for managing and controlling infectious diseases. Particularly in this work, we study the impact of these network features on targeted intervention (e.g., self-isolation and quarantine). The targeted individuals for self-isolation are based on centrality measures and node influence metrics. Compared to our previous works on scale-free networks, small-world networks are considered in this paper. Small-world networks resemble real-world social and human networks. In this type of network, most nodes are not directly connected but can be reached through a few intermediaries (known as the small-worldness property). Real social networks, such as friendship networks, also exhibit this small-worldness property, where most people are connected through a relatively small number of intermediaries. We particularly study the epidemic curve flattening by centrality-based interventions/isolation over small-world networks. Our results show that high clustering while having low small-worldness (higher shortest path characteristics) implies flatter infection curves. In reality, a flatter infection curve implies that the number of new cases of a disease is spread out over a longer period of time, rather than a sharp and sudden increase in cases (a peak in epidemic). In turn, this reduces the strain on healthcare resources and helps to relieve the healthcare services

Epidemic modeling and flattening the infection curve in social networks

The main goal of this paper is to model the epidemic and flattening the infection curve of the social networks. Flattening the infection curve implies slowing down the spread of the disease and reducing the infection rate via social-distancing, isolation (quarantine) and vaccination. The nan-pharmaceutical methods are a much simpler and efficient way to control the spread of epidemic and infection rate. By specifying a target group with high centrality for isolation and quarantine one can reach a much flatter infection curve (related to Corona for example) without adding extra costs to health services. The aim of this research is, first, modeling the epidemic and, then, giving strategies and structural algorithms for targeted vaccination or targeted non-pharmaceutical methods for reducing the peak of the viral disease and flattening the infection curve. These methods are more efficient for nan-pharmaceutical interventions as finding the target quarantine group flattens the infection curve much easier. For this purpose, a few number of particular nodes with high centrality are isolated and the infection curve is analyzed. Our research shows meaningful results for flattening the infection curve only by isolating a few number of targeted nodes in the social network. The proposed methods are independent of the type of the disease and are effective for any viral disease, e.g., Covid-19.Comment: in Persian language. Journal of Modelling in Engineering 202

Favorable association between Mediterranean diet (MeD) and DASH with NAFLD among Iranian adults of the Amol Cohort Study (AmolCS)

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an emerging cause of chronic liver diseases and a major health problem worldwide. Dietary patterns may play a critical role in controlling and preventing this disease, but the available evidence is scarce. The current study aims to ascertain the association of adherence to the Dietary Approach to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and Mediterranean diet (MeD) with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) among Iranian adults of the Amol Cohort Study (AmolCS). In a cross-sectional analysis among 3220 adults (55.3% men), age ≥ 18 years (46.96 ± 14.67), we measured usual dietary intake with a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and then calculated dietary pattern scores for DASH and MeD. Sociodemographic and lifestyle factors were collected by a structured questionnaire. The presence and degree of NAFLD were also determined by abdominal sonography. Multiple regression models were used to estimate NAFLD odds across tertiles of DASH and Mediterranean dietary scores. Dietary DASH and Mediterranean components were adjusted for total energy intake, based on the residual methods. After adjusting for multiple potential confounders, we found an inverse association of DASH and MeD with NAFLD (Ptrend = 0.02, and Ptrend = 0.002, respectively). Those in the highest tertiles of adherence to the DASH and MeD had the lowest risk for NAFLD (OR = 0.80, 95%CI = 0.66–0.96, OR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.52–0.78, respectively). The results of logistic analysis of MeD, stratified by gender and abdominal obesity, revealed the favorable association was more pronounced in women (OR = 0.42, 95%CI = 0.29–0.61, Ptrend = 0.004), and in participants with or without abdominal obesity (OR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.47–0.81, Ptrend = 0.03, OR = 0.64, 95%CI = 0.475–0.91, Ptrend = 0.04, respectively). Similar results were obtained for the adherence to DASH diet score with the prevalence of NAFLD patients with abdominal obesity (OR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.57–0.97, Ptrend = 0.04). The findings suggested the favorable association between DASH and MeD with NAFLD in Iranian adults, especially women and subjects with or without abdominal obesity. Further prospective investigations are needed to confirm the integrity of our findings

Designing a new physical activity calorie equivalent food label and comparing its effect on caloric choices to that of the traffic light label among mothers: a mixed-method study

ObjectiveWe designed a new type of ‘physical activity calorie equivalent’ (PACE) food label in Iran to compare its effect with that of the traffic light food label (TLL) on caloric choices.DesignMixed-method study.ParticipantsMothers of school children between the ages of 6–12 years.SettingIn the qualitative phase, 10 focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted with various groups of mothers, and two FGDs were conducted with food science and nutrition experts to design a new PACE label. In the quantitative phase, 496 mothers were randomly assigned to five groups: (1) no nutrition label, (2) current TLL, (3) current TLL + educational brochure, (4) PACE label, and (5) PACE label + brochure. Samples of dairy products, beverages, cakes, and biscuits were presented. ANOVA and multiple linear regressions were applied to examine the association between label types and calories of the selected products as our main outcome.ResultsThe mothers’ perspectives were classified into two sub-themes, the PACE label’s facilitators and barriers. The new PACE label’s characteristics were divided into two subcategories: (a) appearance, and (b) nutritional information, including 14 codes. In the quantitative section, mean calories of the selected foods were lowest in the TLL + brochure group (831.77 kcal; 95% CI: 794.23–869.32), and highest in the PACE label group (971.61; 95% CI: 926.37–1016.84).ConclusionThe new PACE label was a combination of PACE, TLL, and warning labels. It did not significantly affect lower caloric choice, however, the TLL + brochure option was effective in choosing foods with fewer calories.Clinical trial registration: The study was registered in the Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials 23 (IRCT20181002041201N1)

A population-based prospective study on obesity-related non-communicable diseases in northern Iran: rationale, study design, and baseline analysis

BackgroundIran is facing an epidemiological transition with the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, such as obesity-related disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We conducted a population-based prospective study to assess the prevalence and incidence rates of CVDs and obesity-related metabolic disorders and to evaluate the predictive ability of various CVD risk assessment tools in an Iranian population.MethodWe enrolled 5,799 participants in Amol, a city in northern Iran, in 2009–2010 and carried out the first repeated measurement (RM) after seven years (2016–2017). For all participants, demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, hepatobiliary imaging, and electrocardiography data have been collected in the enrollment and the RM. After enrollment, all participants have been and will be followed up annually for 20 years, both actively and passively.ResultsWe adopted a multidisciplinary approach to overcome barriers to participation and achieved a 7-year follow-up success rate of 93.0% with an active follow-up of 5,394 participants aged 18–90 years. In the RM, about 64.0% of men and 81.2% of women were obese or overweight. In 2017, about 16.2% and 5.2% of men had moderate or severe non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, while women had a significantly higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (35.9%), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (20.9%) than men. Of 160 deceased participants, 69 cases (43.1%) died due to CVDs over seven years.ConclusionThe most prevalent obesity-related chronic disease in the study was metabolic syndrome. Across the enrollment and RM phases, women exhibited a higher prevalence of obesity-related metabolic disorders. Focusing on obesity-related metabolic disorders in a population not represented previously and a multidisciplinary approach for enrolling and following up were the strengths of this study. The study outcomes offer an evidence base for future research and inform policies regarding non-communicable diseases in northern Iran

The effectiveness of nutritional interventions on COVID-19 outcomes:A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Despite global efforts to treat and alleviate the outcomes of COVID-19, no consensus has been reached regarding the optimal approach. Some nutrients have been known to be vital for the integrity of the immune system. Although limited interventional studies support this idea, the findings of some cross-sectional and case studies have been encouraging. Aim: The present study will seek to determine the effectiveness of nutritional interventions on the outcomes of COVID-19. Methods: Electronic databases including PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar will be searched for articles published from October 1st, 2019, to January 12th, 2022. Different study designs, both randomized and nonrandomized trials, cross-sectional or cohort studies, and pre and post-interventions will be included. Screening, selection, and extraction of data as well as quality assessment of included studies, will be carried out by two separate reviewers. Any potential conflicts will be resolved through discussion. An appropriate risk of bias assessment tool will be used to appraise the included studies. Then, the results will be synthesized and pooled for meta-analysis. If the meta-analysis is not performed, the reason will be provided. After summarizing the results and providing conclusions, the specific features associated with effective interventions will be presented based on the power of each study

Food and Nutrition Literacy through Formal Education in Iran: A Content Analysis of School Textbooks

Formal education in any society should foster all aspects of students' growth. However, studying the curriculum of the country academic period indicates null food and nutrition. Nutrition, as an essential factor in the health of students, can play an effective role in their academic progress. This study aimed to analyze the content of school textbooks concerning food and nutrition literacy (FNLIT) concept and its components in Iran. Methods: This study is a content analysis of school textbooks during 2020-2021 academic year. All school textbooks published in 2020 for elementary (grades 1st to 6th), junior high school (grades 7th to 9th), as well as high schools (grades 10th to 12th) were included. Content analysis of the textbooks was conducted based on Krippendorf framework using FNLIT component checklist. The reliability assessment using Holsti method was 85.29% for elementary school textbooks and 84.78% for junior high school and high school textbooks. Results: The cognitive domain of FNLIT had the highest frequency (92%) within the text, images, and practice questions of the elementary school textbooks, followed by very few references regarding the skill domain (7%). The value-attitude domain was largely unnoticed (1%). In junior high school textbooks, the total number of FNLIT components was 439, of which the cognitive domain of 308 (70.16%) had the highest frequency, followed by the skill domain with 96 units (21.86%), while only 35 units were identified regarding the value-attitude domain (7.97%). In high school textbooks, 342 units of analysis were identified, 82.16% of which were related to cognition, 14.03% value-attitude domain, and only 3.80% were related to the skill domain. Conclusion: Meager attention is given to FNLIT and its components in school textbooks in Iran, especially concerning skill and value-attitude domains

An overview of food insecurity during the global COVID-19 outbreak: transformative change and priorities for the Middle East

Abstract The consequences of COVID-19 on the economy and agriculture have raised many concerns about global food security, especially in Middle Eastern countries, where unsustainable farming practices are widespread. Regarding the unprecedented crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic and the importance of early implementation of prevention programs, it is essential to understand better its potential impacts on various food security dimensions and indicators in these countries. In this scoping review, research databases were searched using a search strategy and keywords developed in collaboration with librarians. The review includes community trials and observational studies in all population groups. Two researchers separately conducted the literature search, study selection, and data extraction. A narrative synthesis was implemented to summarize the findings. The impacts of COVID-19 on three of four dimensions of food security through the food and nutrition system were identified: availability, accessibility, and stability. Disruption of financial exchanges, transportation, and closing of stores led to reduced production, processing, and distribution sub-systems. Rising unemployment, quitting some quarantined jobs, increasing medical healthcare costs, and increasing food basket prices in the consumption sub-system lead to lower access to required energy and nutrients, especially in the lower-income groups. Increased micronutrient deficiency and decreased immunity levels, increased overweight, obesity and non-communicable diseases would also occur. The current review results predict the effect of COVID-19 on food security, especially in vulnerable populations, and develop effective interventions. This review provides information for policymakers to better understand the factors influencing the implementation of these interventions and inform decision-making to improve food security. PROSPERO identifier: CRD42020185843