Approaches for combining primary care electronic health record data from multiple sources: a systematic review of observational studies

OBJECTIVE: To identify observational studies which used data from more than one primary care electronic health record (EHR) database, and summarise key characteristics including: objective and rationale for using multiple data sources; methods used to manage, analyse and (where applicable) combine data; and approaches used to assess and report heterogeneity between data sources. DESIGN: A systematic review of published studies. DATA SOURCES: Pubmed and Embase databases were searched using list of named primary care EHR databases; supplementary hand searches of reference list of studies were retained after initial screening. STUDY SELECTION: Observational studies published between January 2000 and May 2018 were selected, which included at least two different primary care EHR databases. RESULTS: 6054 studies were identified from database and hand searches, and 109 were included in the final review, the majority published between 2014 and 2018. Included studies used 38 different primary care EHR data sources. Forty-seven studies (44%) were descriptive or methodological. Of 62 analytical studies, 22 (36%) presented separate results from each database, with no attempt to combine them; 29 (48%) combined individual patient data in a one-stage meta-analysis and 21 (34%) combined estimates from each database using two-stage meta-analysis. Discussion and exploration of heterogeneity was inconsistent across studies. CONCLUSIONS: Comparing patterns and trends in different populations, or in different primary care EHR databases from the same populations, is important and a common objective for multi-database studies. When combining results from several databases using meta-analysis, provision of separate results from each database is helpful for interpretation. We found that these were often missing, particularly for studies using one-stage approaches, which also often lacked details of any statistical adjustment for heterogeneity and/or clustering. For two-stage meta-analysis, a clear rationale should be provided for choice of fixed effect and/or random effects or other models

Association of Relative Age in the School Year With Diagnosis of Intellectual Disability, Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder, and Depression

IMPORTANCE: Young relative age within the school year has previously been associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) diagnosis and, based on limited evidence, diagnosis of intellectual disability. No study to date has examined the association between relative age and diagnosis of depression. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the associations with intellectual disability and ADHD and investigate a potential novel association between relative age and childhood depression. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This population-based cohort study of 1 042 106 children aged 4 to 15 years used electronic record data collected before January 3, 2017, from more than 700 general practices contributing to the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to explore the association between relative age and the incidence of intellectual disability, ADHD, and depression before age 16 years. Data were analyzed between July 2017 and January 2019. EXPOSURES: Relative age within school year determined by month of birth and categorized into four 3-month groups. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Intellectual disability, ADHD, and depression. RESULTS: In the total cohort of 1 042 106 children, 532 876 were male (51.1%) and the median age at study entry was 4.0 years (interquartile range, 4.0-5.0). There was evidence that being born in the last quarter of the school year (ie, being the youngest group in a school year) was associated with diagnosis of intellectual disability (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.18-1.42), ADHD (aHR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.28-1.45), and depression (aHR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.08-1.59) compared with being born in the first quarter. A graded association was seen with intermediate age groups at a smaller increased risk of each diagnosis compared with the oldest group, with aHRs for intellectual disability for those born in the second quarter of 1.06 (95% CI, 0.96-1.17) and for those born in the third quarter of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.09-1.32); aHRs for ADHD for those born in the second quarter of 1.15 (95% CI, 1.08-1.23) and for those born in the third quarter of 1.31 (95% CI, 1.23-1.40); and aHRs for depression for those born in the second quarter of 1.05 (95% CI, 0.85-1.29) and for those born in the third quarter of 1.13 (95% CI, 0.92-1.38). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, relative youth status in the school year is associated with an increased risk of diagnosis of ADHD, intellectual disability, and depression in childhood. Further research into clinical and policy interventions to minimize these associations appears to be needed

Low cognitive ability in early adulthood is associated with reduced lung function in middle age: the Vietnam Experience Study

Objective Reduced lung function has been linked to poorer cognitive ability later in life. In the present study, the authors examined the converse: whether there was a prospective association between cognitive ability in early adulthood and lung function in middle age.Methods Participants were 4256 male Vietnam-era US veterans. Cognitive ability was assessed by the Army General Technical Test on enlistment when participants were, on average, 20 years old (range: 17-34). Data on ethnicity and place of service were extracted from army files. Smoking behaviour, alcohol consumption, basic socio-demographics and whether participants had a physician-diagnosed chronic disease were determined by telephonic interview in middle age in 1985. Forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) was measured by spirometry at a 3-day medical examination in 1986. Height and weight were also measured.Results In linear regression models, poor cognitive ability in early adulthood was associated with reduced lung function in middle age, first adjusting for age and height, beta=0.17, p<0.001, then additionally adjusting for circumstantial, socio-demographic, lifestyle and health factors, beta=0.12, p=0.001. The same results were obtained when the analysis was confined to nonsmokers.Conclusion Not only is lung function related to subsequent cognitive ability, but poor cognitive ability earlier in life is also associated with reduced lung function in middle age

A self-controlled case series to assess the effectiveness of beta blockers for heart failure in reducing hospitalisations in the elderly

Background: To determine the suitability of using the self-controlled case series design to assess improvements in health outcomes using the effectiveness of beta blockers for heart failure in reducing hospitalisations as the example. Methods: The Australian Government Department of Veterans' Affairs administrative claims database was used to undertake a self-controlled case-series in elderly patients aged 65 years or over to compare the risk of a heart failure hospitalisation during periods of being exposed and unexposed to a beta blocker. Two studies, the first using a one year period and the second using a four year period were undertaken to determine if the estimates varied due to changes in severity of heart failure over time. Results: In the one year period, 3,450 patients and in the four year period, 12, 682 patients had at least one hospitalisation for heart failure. The one year period showed a non-significant decrease in hospitalisations for heart failure 4-8 months after starting beta-blockers, (RR, 0.76; 95% CI (0.57-1.02)) and a significant decrease in the 8-12 months post-initiation of a beta blocker for heart failure (RR, 0.62; 95% CI (0.39, 0.99)). For the four year study there was an increased risk of hospitalisation less than eight months post-initiation and significant but smaller decrease in the 8-12 month window (RR, 0.90; 95% CI (0.82, 0.98)). Conclusions: The results of the one year observation period are similar to those observed in randomised clinical trials indicating that the self-controlled case-series method can be successfully applied to assess health outcomes. However, the result appears sensitive to the study periods used and further research to understand the appropriate applications of this method in pharmacoepidemiology is still required. The results also illustrate the benefits of extending beta blocker utilisation to the older age group of heart failure patients in which their use is common but the evidence is sparse.Emmae N Ramsay, Elizabeth E Roughead, Ben Ewald, Nicole L Pratt and Philip Rya

Protocol for an observational cohort study investigating personalised medicine for intensification of treatment in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: the PERMIT study

INTRODUCTION: For people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) who require an antidiabetic drug as an add-on to metformin, there is controversy about whether newer drug classes such as dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) or sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) reduce the risk of long-term complications compared with sulfonylureas (SU). There is widespread variation across National Health Service Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in drug choice for second-line treatment in part because National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines do not specify a single preferred drug class, either overall or within specific patient subgroups. This study will evaluate the relative effectiveness of the three most common second-line treatments in the UK (SU, DPP4i and SGLT2i as add-ons to metformin) and help target treatments according to individual risk profiles. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The study includes people with T2DM prescribed one of the second-line treatments-of-interest between 2014 and 2020 within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink linked with Hospital Episode Statistics and Office of National Statistics. We will use an instrumental variable (IV) method to estimate short-term and long-term relative effectiveness of second-line treatments according to individuals' risk profiles. This method minimises bias from unmeasured confounders by exploiting the natural variation in second-line prescribing across CCGs as an IV for the choice of prescribed treatment. The primary outcome to assess short-term effectiveness will be change in haemoglobin A1c (%) 12 months after treatment initiation. Outcome measures to assess longer-term effectiveness (maximum ~6 years) will include microvascular and macrovascular complications, all-cause mortality and hospital admissions during follow-up. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (20-064) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Research Ethics Committee (21395). Results, codelists and other analysis code will be made available to patients, clinicians, policy-makers and researchers

Chance mechanisms affecting the burden of metastases

BACKGROUND: The burden of cancer metastases within an individual is commonly used to clinically characterize a tumor's biological behavior. Assessments like these implicitly assume that spurious effects can be discounted. Here the influence of chance on the burden of metastasis is studied to determine whether or not this assumption is valid. METHODS: Monte Carlo simulations were performed to estimate tumor burdens sustained by individuals with cancer, based upon empirically derived and validated models for the number and size distributions of metastases. Factors related to the intrinsic metastatic potential of tumors and their host microenvironments were kept constant, to more clearly demonstrate the contribution from chance. RESULTS: Under otherwise identical conditions, both the simulated numbers and the sizes of metastases were highly variable. Comparable individuals could sustain anywhere from no metastases to scores of metastases, and the sizes of the metastases ranged from microscopic to macroscopic. Despite the marked variability in the number and sizes of the metastases, their respective growth times were rather more narrowly distributed. In such situations multiple occult metastases could develop into fully overt lesions within a comparatively short time period. CONCLUSION: Chance can have a major effect on the burden of metastases. Random variability can be so great as to make individual assessments of tumor biology unreliable, yet constrained enough to lead to the apparently simultaneous appearance of multiple overt metastases

Long-term effects of bariatric surgery on acute kidney injury: a propensity-matched cohort in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

OBJECTIVE: Bariatric surgery is an effective method of weight reduction and has been associated with acute kidney injury (AKI) as a perioperative event. However, the long-term effects of the weight reduction after surgery on AKI are unknown. The objective of this study is to quantify the association of bariatric surgery with later risk of AKI. DESIGN: This study uses a propensity score-matched cohort of patients from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink database with and without bariatric surgery to compare rates of AKI episodes derived from linkage to the Hospital Episode Statistics. SETTING: England, UK. PARTICIPANTS: We included 2643 patients with bariatric surgery and 2595 patients without. RESULTS: Results were compatible with an increased risk of AKI in the first 30 days following surgery compared with patients without surgery, but AKI incidence was substantially decreased in patients with bariatric surgery during long-term follow-up (rate ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.23 to 0.61) even after accounting for chronic kidney disease status at baseline. Over the whole period of follow-up, bariatric surgery had a net protective effect on risk of AKI (rate ratio 0.45, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery was associated with protective effects on AKI incidence during long-term follow-up. While the risk of AKI may be increased within the first 30 days, the net effect seen was beneficial.RM is supported by a Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (201375/Z/16/Z). KB holds a Sir Henry Dale fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (107731/Z/15/Z). RLB is an NIHR Research Professor and supported by funding from the Rosetrees Trust and the Sir Jules Thorn Charitable Trust. LS is supported by a senior clinical fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (098504/Z/12/Z). IJD is funded by an unrestricted grant from GlaxoSmithKline

Solving Nonlinear Parabolic Equations by a Strongly Implicit Finite-Difference Scheme

We discuss the numerical solution of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations, exhibiting finite speed of propagation, via a strongly implicit finite-difference scheme with formal truncation error $\mathcal{O}\left[(\Delta x)^2 + (\Delta t)^2 \right]$. Our application of interest is the spreading of viscous gravity currents in the study of which these type of differential equations arise. Viscous gravity currents are low Reynolds number (viscous forces dominate inertial forces) flow phenomena in which a dense, viscous fluid displaces a lighter (usually immiscible) fluid. The fluids may be confined by the sidewalls of a channel or propagate in an unconfined two-dimensional (or axisymmetric three-dimensional) geometry. Under the lubrication approximation, the mathematical description of the spreading of these fluids reduces to solving the so-called thin-film equation for the current's shape $h(x,t)$. To solve such nonlinear parabolic equations we propose a finite-difference scheme based on the Crank--Nicolson idea. We implement the scheme for problems involving a single spatial coordinate (i.e., two-dimensional, axisymmetric or spherically-symmetric three-dimensional currents) on an equispaced but staggered grid. We benchmark the scheme against analytical solutions and highlight its strong numerical stability by specifically considering the spreading of non-Newtonian power-law fluids in a variable-width confined channel-like geometry (a "Hele-Shaw cell") subject to a given mass conservation/balance constraint. We show that this constraint can be implemented by re-expressing it as nonlinear flux boundary conditions on the domain's endpoints. Then, we show numerically that the scheme achieves its full second-order accuracy in space and time. We also highlight through numerical simulations how the proposed scheme accurately respects the mass conservation/balance constraint.Comment: 36 pages, 9 figures, Springer book class; v2 includes improvements and corrections; to appear as a contribution in "Applied Wave Mathematics II

Sequence Homology at the Breakpoint and Clinical Phenotype of Mitochondrial DNA Deletion Syndromes

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) deletions are a common cause of mitochondrial disorders. Large mtDNA deletions can lead to a broad spectrum of clinical features with different age of onset, ranging from mild mitochondrial myopathies (MM), progressive external ophthalmoplegia (PEO), and Kearns-Sayre syndrome (KSS), to severe Pearson syndrome. The aim of this study is to investigate the molecular signatures surrounding the deletion breakpoints and their association with the clinical phenotype and age at onset. MtDNA deletions in 67 patients were characterized using array comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) followed by PCR-sequencing of the deletion junctions. Sequence homology including both perfect and imperfect short repeats flanking the deletion regions were analyzed and correlated with clinical features and patients' age group. In all age groups, there was a significant increase in sequence homology flanking the deletion compared to mtDNA background. The youngest patient group (<6 years old) showed a diffused pattern of deletion distribution in size and locations, with a significantly lower sequence homology flanking the deletion, and the highest percentage of deletion mutant heteroplasmy. The older age groups showed rather discrete pattern of deletions with 44% of all patients over 6 years old carrying the most common 5 kb mtDNA deletion, which was found mostly in muscle specimens (22/41). Only 15% (3/20) of the young patients (<6 years old) carry the 5 kb common deletion, which is usually present in blood rather than muscle. This group of patients predominantly (16 out of 17) exhibit multisystem disorder and/or Pearson syndrome, while older patients had predominantly neuromuscular manifestations including KSS, PEO, and MM. In conclusion, sequence homology at the deletion flanking regions is a consistent feature of mtDNA deletions. Decreased levels of sequence homology and increased levels of deletion mutant heteroplasmy appear to correlate with earlier onset and more severe disease with multisystem involvement

Selection of Medical Diagnostic Codes for Analysis of Electronic Patient Records. Application to Stroke in a Primary Care Database

BACKGROUND: Electronic patient records from primary care databases are increasingly used in public health and health services research but methods used to identify cases with disease are not well described. This study aimed to evaluate the relevance of different codes for the identification of acute stroke in a primary care database, and to evaluate trends in the use of different codes over time.METHODS: Data were obtained from the General Practice Research Database from 1997 to 2006. All subjects had a minimum of 24 months of up-to-standard record before the first recorded stroke diagnosis. Initially, we identified stroke cases using a supplemented version of the set of codes for prevalent stroke used by the Office for National Statistics in Key health statistics from general practice 1998 (ONS codes). The ONS codes were then independently reviewed by four raters and a restricted set of 121 codes for 'acute stroke' was identified but the kappa statistic was low at 0.23.RESULTS: Initial extraction of data using the ONS codes gave 48,239 cases of stroke from 1997 to 2006. Application of the restricted set of codes reduced this to 39,424 cases. There were 2,288 cases whose index medical codes were for 'stroke annual review' and 3,112 for 'stroke monitoring'. The frequency of stroke review and monitoring codes as index codes increased from 9 per year in 1997 to 1,612 in 2004, 1,530 in 2005 and 1,424 in 2006. The one year mortality of cases with the restricted set of codes was 29.1% but for 'stroke annual review,' 4.6% and for 'stroke monitoring codes', 5.7%.CONCLUSION: In the analysis of electronic patient records, different medical codes for a single condition may have varying clinical and prognostic significance; utilisation of different medical codes may change over time; researchers with differing clinical or epidemiological experience may have differing interpretations of the relevance of particular codes. There is a need for greater transparency in the selection of sets of codes for different conditions, for the reporting of sensitivity analyses using different sets of codes, as well as sharing of code sets among researchers