Inferring Past Climate from Moraine Evidence Using Glacier Modelling

Glacier length fluctuations reflect changes in climate, most notably temperature and precipitation. By this reasoning, moraines, which represent former glacier extent, can be used to estimate past climate. However, estimating palaeoclimate from moraines is not a straight-forward process and involves several assumptions. For example, recent studies have suggested that interannual stochastic variability in temperature in a steady-state climate can cause a glacier to experience kilometre-scale fluctuations. Such studies cast doubt on the usefulness of moraines as climate proxy indicators. Detailed glacial geomorphological maps and moraine chronologies have improved our understanding of the spatial and temporal extent of past glacial events in New Zealand. Palaeoclimate estimates associated with these moraines have thus-far come from simple methods, such as the accumulation area ratio, with unquantifiable uncertainties. I used a numerical modelling approach to approximate the present-day glacier mass balance pattern, which includes the effects of snow avalanching on glacier mass balance. I then used the models to reconstruct palaeoclimate for Lateglacial and Holocene glacial events in New Zealand, and to better understand moraine-glacier-climate relationships. The climate reconstructions come from simulating past glacier expansions to specific terminal moraines, but I also simulated glacier fluctuations in response to a previously derived temperature reconstruction, and to interannual stochastic variability in temperature. The purpose behind each simulation was to identify the drivers of significant glacier fluctuations. The modelling results support the hypothesis that New Zealand moraine records reflect past climate, especially changes in temperature. Lateglacial climate was reconstructed to be 2-3 C lower than the present day. This temperature range agrees well with previous estimates from moraines and other climate proxy records in New Zealand. Modelled temperature estimates for the Holocene moraines are slightly colder than those derived from simpler methods, due to a non-linear relationship found between snowline lowering and glacier length. This relationship results from the specific valley shape and glacier geometry, and is likely to occur in other, similarly-shaped glacier valleys. The simulations forced by interannual stochastic variability in temperature do not show significant (>300 m) fluctuations in the glacier terminus. Such fluctuations can not explain the Holocene moraine sequence that I examined, which extends >2 km beyond the present-day glacier terminus. Stochastic temperature change could, however, in part, cause fluctuations in glacier extent during an overall glacier recession. Modelling shows that it is also unlikely that glaciers advanced to Holocene and Lateglacial moraine positions as a result of precipitation changes alone. For these reasons, temperature changes are a necessary part of explaining past glacier extents, especially during the Lateglacial, and the moraines examined here likely reflect changes in mean climate in New Zealand. The glacier modelling studies indicate that simpler methods, such as the accumulation area ratio, can be used to appropriately reconstruct past climate from glacial evidence, as long as the glacier catchment has a straight forward geometry, shallow bed slope and no tributary glaciers. Non-linear relationships between climate change and glacier length develop when valley shape is more complex, and glaciers within these systems are probably better simulated using a modelling approach. Using a numerical modelling approach, it is also possible to gain a greater understanding of glacier response time, length sensitivities, and estimates of ice extent in valleys within the model domain where geomorphic evidence is not available. In this manner, numerical models can be used as a tool for understanding past climate and glacier sensitivity, thus improving the confidence in the palaeoclimate interpretations

A5: Grafton Notch State Park: Glacial Gorges and Streams Under Pressure in the Mahoosic Range, Maine

Guidebook for field trips in Western Maine and Northern New Hampshire: New England Intercollegiate Geological Conference, p. 95-104

Interannual climate variability helps define the mean state of glaciers

Changes in glacier length and extent are indicators of contemporary and archives of past climate changes, but this common climate proxy presents a challenge for inferring a climate signal. Modeling studies suggest that length fluctuations can occur due to interannual climate variability within an unchanging mean climate and that changes in interannual climate variability can also drive changes in average length. This paper quantifies the impacts of interannual climate variability on average glacier length and mass balance, using a flowline model coupled to a simplified mass-balance model. Results illustrate that changes in the magnitude of interannual temperature variability can non-linearly affect the mean glacier length through a mass-balance asymmetry between warm and cold years. This asymmetry is present in models where melt only initiates after a temperature threshold is crossed. Glaciers susceptible to this asymmetry can be identified based on the shape of their mass-balance profiles. The presence of mass-balance asymmetries in glaciological databases is evaluated, but current records are too short for high statistical resolving power. While the asymmetry in this study can affect the average length and mass-balance, its impacts are small, and paleoclimate interpretations from glacier-length changes are likely not notably influenced by this process

The Last Glacial Maximum in Central North Island, New Zealand: Palaeoclimate Inferences from Glacier Modelling

Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions provide data for evaluating the mechanisms of past, natural climate variability. Geometries of former mountain glaciers constrained by moraine mapping afford the opportunity to reconstruct palaeoclimate, due to the close relationship between ice extent and local climate. In this study, we present results from a series of experiments using a 2D coupled energy-balance/ice-flow model that investigate the palaeoclimate significance of Last Glacial Maximum m oraines within nine catchments in the central North Island, New Zealand. We find that the former ice limits can be simulated when present-day temperatures are reduced by between 4 and 7 ◦C, if precipitation remains unchanged from present. The spread in the results between the nine catchments is likely to rep- resent the combination of chronological and model uncer- tainties. The majority of catchments targeted require tem- perature decreases of 5.1 to 6.3 ◦ C to simulate the former glaciers, which represents our best estimate of the tempera- ture anomaly in the central North Island, New Zealand, dur- ing the Last Glacial Maximum. A decrease in precipitation of up to 25 % from present, as suggested by proxy evidence and climate models, increases the magnitude of the required temperature changes by up to 0.8 ◦ C. Glacier model experi- ments using reconstructed topographies that exclude the vol- ume of post-glacial (\u3c 15 ka) volcanism generally increased the magnitude of cooling required to simulate the former ice limits by up to 0.5 ◦ C. Our palaeotemperature estimates ex- pand the spatial coverage of proxy-based quantitative palaeo- climate reconstructions in New Zealand. Our results are also consistent with independent, proximal temperature recon- structions from fossil groundwater and pollen assemblages, as well as similar glacier modelling reconstructions from the central Southern Alps, which suggest air temperatures were ca. 6 ◦ C lower than present across New Zealand during the Last Glacial Maximum

Evaluation of Lateglacial temperatures in the Southern Alps of New Zealand based on glacier modelling at Irishman Stream, Ben Ohau Range

Climate proxy records from the middle to high latitude Southern Hemisphere indicate that a Lateglacial (15,000-11,500 years ago) climate reversal, approximately coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR), interrupted a warming trend during deglaciation. In New Zealand, some palaeoclimate proxy records indicate a cool episode during the ACR (ca 14,500-12,500 years ago), while others do not express a significant change in climate. Recently published moraine maps and ages present an opportunity to improve the palaeoclimate interpretation through numerical modelling of glaciers. We use a coupled energy-balance and ice-flow model to quantify palaeoclimate from past glacier extent constrained by mapped and dated moraines in the headwaters of Irishman Stream, a high-elevation catchment in the Southern Alps. First, a suite of steady-state model runs is used to identify the temperature and precipitation forcing required to fit the modelled glacier to well-dated Lateglacial moraine crests. Second, time dependent glacier simulations forced by a nearby proxy temperature record derived from chironomids are used to assess the fit with the glacial geomorphic record. Steady-state experiments using an optimal parameter set demonstrate that the conditions under which the 13,000 year old moraine formed were 2.3-3.2 *C colder than present with the range in temperature corresponding to a +/- 20% variance in precipitation relative to the present-day. This reconstructed climate change relative to the present-day corresponds to an equilibrium-line altitude of ca 2000 +/- 40 m above sea level (asl), which is ca 400 m lower than present. Time-dependent simulations of glacier length produce ice advance to within 100 m of the 13,000 year old terminal moraine, indicating that the chironomid-based temperature forcing and moraine record provide consistent information about past climate. Our results, together with other climate proxy reconstructions from pollen records and marine sediment cores, support the notion that temperatures during the ACR in New Zealand were ~2-3 *C cooler than today

A minimal clinically important difference measured by the Cambridge Pulmonary Hypertension Outcome Review for patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Funder: National Institute for Health Research; FundRef: https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000272Several patient-reported outcome measures have been developed to assess health status in pulmonary arterial hypertension. The required change in instrument scores needed, to be seen as meaningful to the individual, however remain unknown. We sought to identify minimal clinically important differences in the Cambridge Pulmonary Hypertension Outcome Review (CAMPHOR) and to validate these against objective markers of functional capacity. Minimal clinically important differences were established from a discovery cohort (n = 129) of consecutive incident cases of idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension with CAMPHOR scores recorded at treatment-naïve baseline and 4-12 months following pulmonary arterial hypertension therapy. An independent validation cohort (n = 87) was used to verify minimal clinically important differences. Concurrent measures of functional capacity relative to CAMPHOR scores were collected. Minimal clinically important differences were derived using anchor- and distributional-based approaches. In the discovery cohort, mean (SD) was 54.4 (16.4) years and 64% were female. Most patients (63%) were treated with sequential pulmonary arterial hypertension therapy. Baseline CAMPHOR scores were: Symptoms, 12 (7); Activity, 12 (7) and quality of life, 10 (7). Pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment resulted in significant improvements in CAMPHOR scores (p < 0.05). CAMPHOR minimal clinically important differences averaged across methods for health status improvement were: Symptoms, -4 points; Activity, -4 points and quality of life -3 points. CAMPHOR Activity score change ≥minimal clinically important difference was associated with significantly greater improvement in six-minute walk distance, in both discovery and validation populations. In conclusion, CAMPHOR scores are responsive to pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment. Minimal clinically important differences in pulmonary hypertension-specific scales may provide useful insights into treatment response in future clinical trials

The Last Glacial Maximum in the central North Island, New Zealand: palaeoclimate inferences from glacier modelling

Abstract. Quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions provide data for evaluating the mechanisms of past, natural climate variability. Geometries of former mountain glaciers constrained by moraine mapping afford the opportunity to reconstruct palaeoclimate, due to the close relationship between ice extent and local climate. In this study, we present results from a series of experiments using a 2D coupled energy-balance/ice-flow model that investigate the palaeoclimate significance of Last Glacial Maximum moraines within nine catchments in central North Island, New Zealand. We find that the former ice limits can be simulated when present day temperatures are reduced by between 4 °C and 7 °C, when precipitation remains unchanged from present. The spread in the results between the nine catchments is likely to represent the combination of chronological and model uncertainties. The temperature decrease required to simulate the former glaciers falls in the range of 5.1 °C and 6.3 °C for the majority of catchments targeted, which represents our best estimate of the peak temperature anomaly in central North Island, New Zealand during the Last Glacial Maximum. A decrease in precipitation, as suggested by proxy evidence and climate models, of up to 25 % from present, increases the magnitude of the required temperature changes by up to 0.8 °C. Glacier model experiments using reconstructed topographies that exclude the volume of post-glacial (&lt;15 ka) volcanism, generally increased the magnitude of cooling required to simulate the former ice limits by up to 0.5 °C. Our palaeotemperature estimates expand the spatial coverage of proxy-based quantitative palaeoclimate reconstructions in New Zealand, and are consistent with independent, proximal temperature reconstructions from fossil pollen assemblages, as well as similar glacier modelling reconstructions from central Southern Alps. </jats:p

High-precision 10Be chronology of moraines in the Southern Alps indicates synchronous cooling in Antarctica and New Zealand 42,000 years ago

Millennial-scale temperature variations in Antarctica during the period 80,000 to 18,000 years ago are known to anti-correlate broadly with winter-centric cold–warm episodes revealed in Greenland ice cores. However, the extent to which climate fluctuations in the Southern Hemisphere beat in time with Antarctica, rather than with the Northern Hemisphere, has proved a controversial question. In this study we determine the ages of a prominent sequence of glacial moraines in New Zealand and use the results to assess the phasing of millennial climate change. Forty-four 10Be cosmogenic surface-exposure ages of boulders deposited by the Pukaki glacier in the Southern Alps document four moraine-building events from Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) through to the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (∼18,000 years ago; LGM). The earliest moraine-building event is defined by the ages of nine boulders on a belt of moraine that documents the culmination of a glacier advance 42,000 years ago. At the Pukaki locality this advance was of comparable scale to subsequent advances that, from the remaining exposure ages, occurred between 28,000 and 25,000, at 21,000, and at 18,000 years ago. Collectively, all four moraine-building events represent the LGM. The glacier advance 42,000 years ago in the Southern Alps coincides in Antarctica with a cold episode, shown by the isotopic record from the EPICA Dome C ice core, between the prominent A1 and A2 warming events. Therefore, the implication of the Pukaki glacier record is that as early as 42,000 years ago an episode of glacial cold similar to that of the LGM extended in the atmosphere from high on the East Antarctic plateau to at least as far north as the Southern Alps (∼44°S). Such a cold episode is thought to reflect the translation through the atmosphere and/or the ocean of the anti-phased effects of Northern Hemisphere interstadial conditions to the southern half of the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless of the mechanism, any explanation for the cold episode at 42,000 years ago must account for its widespread atmospheric footprint not only in Antarctica but also within the westerly wind belt in southern mid-latitudes