Child and adult mortality in Zimbabwe, 1980-2005

This research applies direct and indirect methods to data from censuses and Demographic and Health Surveys to derive empirical estimates of the level and trends of child and adult mortality in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2005

An application of exponential smoothing methods to weather related data

A Research Report submitted to the Faculty of Science in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the School of Statistics and Actuarial Science. 26 May 2016Exponential smoothing is a recursive time series technique whereby forecasts are updated for each new incoming data values. The technique has been widely used in forecasting, particularly in business and inventory modelling. Up until the early 2000s, exponential smoothing methods were often criticized by statisticians for lacking an objective statistical basis for model selection and modelling errors. Despite this, exponential smoothing methods appealed to forecasters due to their forecasting performance and relative ease of use. In this research report, we apply three commonly used exponential smoothing methods to two datasets which exhibit both trend and seasonality. We apply the method directly on the data without de-seasonalizing the data first. We also apply a seasonal naive method for benchmarking the performance of exponential smoothing methods. We compare both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the methods. The performance of the methods is assessed using forecast accuracy measures. Results show that the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing method with additive seasonality performed best for forecasting monthly rainfall data. The simple exponential smoothing method outperformed the Holt’s and Holt-Winters methods for forecasting daily temperature data

Orphans of the AIDS epidemic? The extent, nature and circumstances of child-headed households in South Africa

There is widespread concern that the number of children living in “child-headed households” is rapidly increasing as a result of AIDS-related adult mortality in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Based on analyses of data from several representative national surveys over the period 2000–2007, this paper examines the extent to which this is the case in South Africa. It explores trends in the number of children living in child-only households and characterises these children relative to children living in households with adults (mixed-generation households). The findings indicate that the proportion of child-only households is relatively small (0.47% in 2006) and does not appear to be increasing. In addition, the vast majority (92.1%) of children resident in child-only households have a living parent. The findings raise critical questions about the circumstances leading to the formation of child-only households and highlight that they cannot for the main part be ascribed to HIV orphaning. Nonetheless, the number of children living in this household form is not insignificant, and their circumstances, when compared with children in mixed-generation households, indicate a range of challenges, including greater economic vulnerability and inadequate service access. We argue that a solitary focus on the HIV epidemic and its related orphaning as the cause of child-only households masks other important issues for consideration in addressing their needs, and risks the development of inappropriate policies, programmes and interventions

South African Child Gauge 2008/2009: children and education

Poster-map [pdf 1.13 MB, print size A1] accompanying South African Child Gauge 2008/2009