EC-Earth3-AerChem: A global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model, describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and outline the new features compared with the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under preindustrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the preindustrial control simulation is on average -0.09 W m-2 with a standard deviation due to interannual variability of 0.25 W m-2, showing no significant drift. The global surface air temperature in the simulation is on average 14.08 ∼ C with an interannual standard deviation of 0.17 ∼ C, exhibiting a small drift of 0.015 ± 0.005 ∼ C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 ∼ C, and its transient climate response is estimated at 2.1 ∼ C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread across ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), the surface air temperature climatology for 1995-2014 has an average bias of -0.86 ± 0.05 ∼ C with a standard deviation across ensemble members of 0.35 ∼ C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.02 ∼ C with a corresponding standard deviation of 0.05 ∼ C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant effects on the global climate from the second half of the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091-2100) of 4.9 ∼ C above the preindustrial mean. A 0.5 ∼ C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 ∼ C

Diagnosis of aortic graft infection : a case definition by the management of aortic graft infection collaboration (MAGIC)

Objective/Background The management of aortic graft infection (AGI) is highly complex and in the absence of a universally accepted case definition and evidence-based guidelines, clinical approaches and outcomes vary widely. The objective was to define precise criteria for diagnosing AGI. Methods A process of expert review and consensus, involving formal collaboration between vascular surgeons, infection specialists, and radiologists from several English National Health Service hospital Trusts with large vascular services (Management of Aortic Graft Infection Collaboration [MAGIC]), produced the definition. Results Diagnostic criteria from three categories were classified as major or minor. It is proposed that AGI should be suspected if a single major criterion or two or more minor criteria from different categories are present. AGI is diagnosed if there is one major plus any criterion (major or minor) from another category. (i) Clinical/surgical major criteria comprise intraoperative identification of pus around a graft and situations where direct communication between the prosthesis and a nonsterile site exists, including fistulae, exposed grafts in open wounds, and deployment of an endovascular stent-graft into an infected field (e.g., mycotic aneurysm); minor criteria are localized AGI features or fever ≥38°C, where AGI is the most likely cause. (ii) Radiological major criteria comprise increasing perigraft gas volume on serial computed tomography (CT) imaging or perigraft gas or fluid (≥7 weeks and ≥3 months, respectively) postimplantation; minor criteria include other CT features or evidence from alternative imaging techniques. (iii) Laboratory major criteria comprise isolation of microorganisms from percutaneous aspirates of perigraft fluid, explanted grafts, and other intraoperative specimens; minor criteria are positive blood cultures or elevated inflammatory indices with no alternative source. Conclusion This AGI definition potentially offers a practical and consistent diagnostic standard, essential for comparing clinical management strategies, trial design, and developing evidence-based guidelines. It requires validation that is planned in a multicenter, clinical service database supported by the Vascular Society of Great Britain & Ireland

Aerosols in the Pre-industrial Atmosphere

Purpose of Review: We assess the current understanding of the state and behaviour of aerosols under pre-industrial conditions and the importance for climate. Recent Findings: Studies show that the magnitude of anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial period calculated by climate models is strongly affected by the abundance and properties of aerosols in the pre-industrial atmosphere. The low concentration of aerosol particles under relatively pristine conditions means that global mean cloud albedo may have been twice as sensitive to changes in natural aerosol emissions under pre-industrial conditions compared to present-day conditions. Consequently, the discovery of new aerosol formation processes and revisions to aerosol emissions have large effects on simulated historical aerosol radiative forcing. Summary: We review what is known about the microphysical, chemical, and radiative properties of aerosols in the pre-industrial atmosphere and the processes that control them. Aerosol properties were controlled by a combination of natural emissions, modification of the natural emissions by human activities such as land-use change, and anthropogenic emissions from biofuel combustion and early industrial processes. Although aerosol concentrations were lower in the pre-industrial atmosphere than today, model simulations show that relatively high aerosol concentrations could have been maintained over continental regions due to biogenically controlled new particle formation and wildfires. Despite the importance of pre-industrial aerosols for historical climate change, the relevant processes and emissions are given relatively little consideration in climate models, and there have been very few attempts to evaluate them. Consequently, we have very low confidence in the ability of models to simulate the aerosol conditions that form the baseline for historical climate simulations. Nevertheless, it is clear that the 1850s should be regarded as an early industrial reference period, and the aerosol forcing calculated from this period is smaller than the forcing since 1750. Improvements in historical reconstructions of natural and early anthropogenic emissions, exploitation of new Earth system models, and a deeper understanding and evaluation of the controlling processes are key aspects to reducing uncertainties in future

Femtosecond wavepacket dynamics on strongly coupled potential energy surfaces

An overview is given of various results of ab initio quantum dynamical simulations on conically intersecting potential energy surfaces. Here, the nonadiabatic coupling effects are typically very strong, leading to a femtosecond (fs) population decay of the upper electronic state and to a diffuse appearance of the corresponding band in the electronic spectrum. For the lower electronic state we demonstrate the possibility of a bifurcation of the wavepacket that can lead to a manifestation of the geometric phase. The examples chosen to illustrate these phenomena are triatomic hydrogen, sulfur dioxide, and the radical cation of benzene. The latter systems features a complex “web” of different multidimensional, partly coalescing, conical intersections between up to eight potential energy surfaces. The resulting stepwise femtosecond decay processes give rise to a highly complex vibronic dynamics that is currently being modeled to an increasing degree of sophistication

Measurement and effect of the critical gas saturation and relative permeability on the production of methane from geopressured aquifers of saturated brine

The attempt to measure critical gas saturation at pressures in the range of 5000 to 10,000 psi failed. It proved impossible, with the funds and time available, to conclude a successful suite of experiments. The problem was centered on the inability to maintain adequate seals on the end plates of the apparatus. Numerical simulation confirmed that the level of critical gas saturation required for methane to be produced profitably from geopressured aquifers was unrealistically high. Most of the water driven geopressured gas reservoirs located through a study of the USGS files revealed that there is in general an inadequate level of available data on them. Furthermore, the size of these reservoirs were in general so small that their total gas content would not merit any significant expenditure to win the residual, trapped gas

Carbon dioxide for the recovery of (residual) crude oil. Final report

The original plan of the work was altered with the agreement of the various contract officers from that of emphasis on the use of additives in improving the efficiency of carbon dioxide to a plan for developing a thorough understanding of the mechanism and basic efficiency of carbon dioxide as a recovery agent for residual crude oil. As this program proceeded, the results obtained from the physical model studies were not those anticipated from prior theoretical studies and laboratory experiments which had not been physically scaled. This required that the work be continued to no more than define and establish as unequivocally as possible the actual mechanism by which carbon dioxide might recover some of the reputed hundreds of billions barrels of residual oil in reservoirs in the United States. Only in this way could a proper evaluation of the potential of the process be defined and hopefully, subsequently, improved. The work has now been completed and leads to the conclusion that the recovery of residual oil by carbon dioxide depends on solution of the carbon dioxide in the oil and the displacement of the resulting solution by the continuing gas drive, or, alternately, a substitute water drive. The efficiency of the process will depend on the diffusion of carbon dioxide into the residual oil prior to the breakthrough of the latter and the residual oil phase saturation to the concurrent gas drive. 17 references, 16 figures