Modelling for sustainable cities: Conceptual approach and an audit of existing sectoral models for transport, air pollution, land use, and population modelling.

Urban modelling theories and operational models date back to the sixties and seventies, and have been constantly improved since then. It seems therefore that there should be no problem with addressing city sustainability issues. After all, these models claimed to be tools to help planners in choosing the best policies, exactly the same objectives that we need sustainability models to fulfil. The problem is that urban models have ignored many problems considered today as most pressing. They have not only ignored environmental issues, but also most quality of life issues. If we look at diagrams by Wilson (1981, p.265; 1977, p.3) or Wegener (1994), it is clear that these models focus on land use (understood as location and intensity of activities) and transport problems. The name “urban model” might be then misleading. This does not mean that environmental problems were not modelled at all: they were, but this research area was outside the interests of urban researchers and planners. One possibility for the way forward is to use old models, integrate them and extend them to include missing components. In order to do this, one should first specify the components to be included in the integrated model, taking the sustainability concept and the new modelling objectives as a point of reference

Population and labour force projections for 27 European countries, 2002-052: impact of international migration on population ageing: Projections de population et de population active pour 27 pays européens 2002-052: impact de la migration internationale sur le vieillissement de la population

Population and labour force projections are made for 27 selected European countries for 2002-052, focussing on the impact of international migration on population and labour force dynamics. Starting from single scenarios for fertility, mortality and economic activity, three sets of assumptions are explored regarding migration flows, taking into account probable policy developments in Europe following the enlargement of the EU. In addition to age structures, various support ratio indicators are analysed. The results indicate that plausible immigration cannot offset the negative effects of population and labour force ageing

LONG-TERM REGIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF MIGRATION IN EUROPE - ASSESSMENT METHOD AND SELECTED RESULTS

The paper presents a method of assessment of the long-term impact of migration on the development of population and labour force in 287 regions of Europe in 31 countries. The first stage of the study was to prepare population projections in several variants. An important issue was to address the problem of the availability and quality of data on international migration. The measurement of the impact of migration on total population and labour force was conducted by comparing the percentage changes in population and labour force obtained in various simulations. The impact on the age structure was examined by analyzing demographic and labour force dependency ratios. A method of comparing the impact of various components of population change: natural change and different categories of migration flows (extra-European migration, international migration within Europe and internal migration) was proposed. In the second part of the paper, selected results of the simulations, showing potential long-term consequences of the observed migration flows, were presented. Special attention was paid to the regional differences in the consequences

Methodology for the estimation of annual population stocks by citizenship group, age and sex in the EU and EFTA countries

The paper addresses selected computational issues related to the challenge of dealing with poor statistics on international migration. Partial results of the on-going Eurostat-funded project on “Modelling of statistical data on migration and migrant population” (MIMOSA) are presented. The focus is on the data on population stocks by broad group of citizenship, sex and age. After a brief overview of the main problems with data on population by citizenship for 31 European countries (27 European Union countries, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland), a range of computational methods is proposedincluding cohort-wise interpolation, cohort-component projections, cohort-wise weights propagation and proportional fitting methods, as well as other, auxiliary methods. The algorithm for choosing the best method for estimating missing data on population stock by broad citizenship (nationals, foreigners – EU27 citizens, foreigners – non EU27 citizens), five-year age group (up to 85+) and sex on 1st January 2002–2006 is proposed and illustrated by examples of its application for selected countries

INVESTING IN YOUR FUTUREThis report presents results of an

within the framework of the ESPON 2013 Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The partnership behind the ESPON Programme consists of the EU Commission and the Member States of the EU27, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Each partner is represented in the ESPO

The Impact of Demographic and Migration Flows on Serbia

Like almost all the European countries, Serbia is experiencing population ageing as a result of low fertility and increasing life expectancy. At the same time, economic activity rates there are lower than in many other countries. Negative natural change and emigration mean that Serbia’s overall population is declining. Will these processes continue into the future? How might fertility, mortality and economic activity develop and what impact will this have on population and labour force size and structures? What effect might Serbia’s potential membership of the European Union have? What, in particular, are the potential migration scenarios and their possible consequences? Which policies might be the most effective in counter-balancing population ageing and the potential labour deficit? To answer these questions, demographic experts from the Central European Forum for Migration and Population Research, IOM Warsaw and the Institute of Social Sciences in Belgrade conducted an impact study in order to provide a better understanding of the consequences of demographic and migratory trends for Serbia in the medium term, which is to say, thirty years. This publication gives an account of both the research conducted within that study and its results. In Chapter 2, the research methods adopted are described and the basic indicators defined. Chapter 3 contains an overview of past demographic, migratory and economic activity trends and a description of the assumptions for the future adopted in the forecasts. The forecast results, including a discussion of the impact of migration, are presented in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 considers various policy developments, while the Annex discusses selected issues in respect of data

Replacement migration revisited: simulations of the effects of selected population and labor market strategies for the ageing Europe, 2002–2052

This paper contains the selected results of research concerning the impact of international migration on population dynamics and labor force resources in 27 European countries over the 2002–2052 period. The study presents a set of simulations prepared under various assumptions on target population size and selected proxy indicators of population and labor force structures. The concept of “replacement migration’’ is used to illustrate the magnitude of the expected deficit and structural imbalance of the population and labor force in the first half of the 21st century. The results are the basis for making general recommendations for future population, migration, and labor market policy strategies in Europe, taking into account the long-term plausibility of the proposed solutions. It is argued that only a combination of policies aimed at increasing fertility and labor force participation, together with reasonable-level immigration, can help meet socioeconomic challenges posed by population aging

INVESTING IN YOUR FUTUREThis report presents results of an

within the framework of the ESPON 2013 Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The partnership behind the ESPON Programme consists of the EU Commission and the Member States of the EU27, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Each partner is represented in the ESPO