Stochastic Species Turnover and Stable Coexistence in a Species-Rich, Fire-Prone Plant Community

Understanding the mechanisms that maintain diversity is important for managing ecosystems for species persistence. Here we used a long-term data set to understand mechanisms of coexistence at the local and regional scales in the Cape Floristic Region, a global hotspot of plant diversity. We used a dataset comprising 81 monitoring sites, sampled in 1966 and again in 1996, and containing 422 species for which growth form, regeneration mode, dispersal distance and abundances at both the local (site) and meta-community scales are known. We found that species presence and abundance were stable at the meta-community scale over the 30 year period but highly unstable at the local scale, and were not influenced by species' biological attributes. Moreover, rare species were no more likely to go extinct at the local scale than common species, and that alpha diversity in local communities was strongly influenced by habitat. We conclude that stochastic environmental fluctuations associated with recurrent fire buffer populations from extinction, thereby ensuring stable coexistence at the meta-community scale by creating a “neutral-like” pattern maintained by niche-differentiation

Salmonella Strains Isolated from Galápagos Iguanas Show Spatial Structuring of Serovar and Genomic Diversity

It is thought that dispersal limitation primarily structures host-associated bacterial populations because host distributions inherently limit transmission opportunities. However, enteric bacteria may disperse great distances during food-borne outbreaks. It is unclear if such rapid long-distance dispersal events happen regularly in natural systems or if these events represent an anthropogenic exception. We characterized Salmonella enterica isolates from the feces of free-living Galápagos land and marine iguanas from five sites on four islands using serotyping and genomic fingerprinting. Each site hosted unique and nearly exclusive serovar assemblages. Genomic fingerprint analysis offered a more complex model of S. enterica biogeography, with evidence of both unique strain pools and of spatial population structuring along a geographic gradient. These findings suggest that even relatively generalist enteric bacteria may be strongly dispersal limited in a natural system with strong barriers, such as oceanic divides. Yet, these differing results seen on two typing methods also suggests that genomic variation is less dispersal limited, allowing for different ecological processes to shape biogeographical patterns of the core and flexible portions of this bacterial species' genome

Climate velocity and the future global redistribution of marine biodiversity

Anticipating the effect of climate change on biodiversity, in particular on changes in community composition, is crucial for adaptive ecosystem management but remains a critical knowledge gap. Here, we use climate velocity trajectories, together with information on thermal tolerances and habitat preferences, to project changes in global patterns of marine species richness and community composition under IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Our simple, intuitive approach emphasizes climate connectivity, and enables us to model over 12 times as many species as previous studies. We find that range expansions prevail over contractions for both RCPs up to 2100, producing a net local increase in richness globally, and temporal changes in composition, driven by the redistribution rather than the loss of diversity. Conversely, widespread invasions homogenize present-day communities across multiple regions. High extirpation rates are expected regionally (for example, Indo-Pacific), particularly under RCP8.5, leading to strong decreases in richness and the anticipated formation of no-analogue communities where invasions are common. The spatial congruence of these patterns with contemporary human impacts highlights potential areas of future conservation concern. These results strongly suggest that the millennial stability of current global marine diversity patterns, against which conservation plans are assessed, will change rapidly over the course of the century in response to ocean warming. © 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited