Wechselkurse und österreichischer Außenhandel

Zuerst war es die Hartwährungspolitik, dann die Mitgliedschaft im Euroraum, die den Zusammenhang zwischen Wechselkursen und österreichischem Außenhandel in Vergessenheit geraten ließen. Der massive Einbruch des Welthandels im Zuge der Finanzmarktkrise und die jüngste Euroschwäche ge-genüber dem USD rückten ihn jedoch wieder ins Blickfeld. Tatsächlich reagierte der Außenhandel in Österreich in der Krise wesentlich stärker als das BIP, wobei der Handel mit EU-Partnern deutlich stärker einbrach als der Handel mit Drittstaaten. Ausschlaggebend dafür war vor allem der Nachfrageeinbruch auf den österreichischen Exportmärkten, insbesondere jener bei dauerhaften Konsumgütern, Maschinen und Fahrzeugen. Angesichts des massiven Nachfrageausfalls blieb die Wechselkursentwicklung nur von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Offensichtlich haben der Vertrauensverlust in der Krise, aber auch unterschiedliche Reaktionen von Produzenten und Konsumenten oder auch auf Firmenebene die preislich bedingten Reaktionsmechanismen stark gedämpft.Hartwährungspolitik, preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit, externe Nachfrage

The Natural Rate of Interest — Concepts and Appraisal for the Euro Area

Real interest rates in the euro area fluctuated sharply between —4.2% and +7.7% over the past half century. A key question for monetary policy makers and economic agents is: What is the „neutral,” „equilibrium” or „natural” real interest rate to which current rates might eventually move back? In the long run, the natural rate of interest is influenced by productivity developments, population growth and the time preference for consumption over saving. In the medium run, the natural rate may also be influenced by fiscal policy, the structure of financial markets, and inflation risk premiums. Globalization should over time contribute to an international convergence of natural rates. Empirical estimates of the natural rate differ considerably and are associated with large error margins; estimates in „real time” suffer from additional uncertainty. Monetary policy rules based on the natural rate (e.g. Taylor rules, real interest rate gap) should thus be treated with great caution. Monetary policy might use the natural rate to consider appropriate responses to technological and demographic shocks. The majority of recent estimates for the euro area points to a fall in the natural rate to a level as low as 1.5%. This may reflect a more credible monetary policy and deep euro area financial markets, but also slowing productivity growth and a decline in the working-age population. In the future, the growing need for private savings for retirement might lower the natural rate, whereas „fiscal consolidation fatigue” might raise the natural rate.interest rates, monetary policy, monetary policy rules.

Are Euro Cash Holdings in Central and Eastern Europe Driven by Experience or Anticipation? Results from an OeNB Survey

Although euroization is an important phenomenon in emerging markets, still very little is known about who holds how much euro and for what purposes. In this paper, we employ unique survey data to analyze various aspects of foreign currency holdings in five Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs). This allows us to study the impact of expectations and hysteresis on individual behavior. Our results show that a substantial share of the population in the countries under review holds euro cash. We fi nd little evidence that infl ation or exchange rate expectations are important determinants of euroization, whereas variables related to a country’s economic history seem to be of some signifi cance. Our results also indicate that the demand for euro and its use in domestic payments increases as the date of euro adoption approaches.

The Euro Changeover in the New Member States - A Preview

This study discusses issues that can be expected to arise in the context of preparations for the euro changeover in the new Member States. In doing so, it draws on the experiences of those 12 countries that have already introduced the single European currency, with a specific focus on the case of Austria. This experience can be a useful signpost for new Member States, even though their starting conditions differ because the euro already exists and most of the countries in question are on a catching-up route. The paper makes reference to the two main dimensions of the process, namely the noncash and cash changeover. The study stresses the crucial importance of timely preparations and well-devised information for ensuring a smooth changeover. In conclusion, the paper expresses confidence that the new Member States will manage the changeover process successfully when the time has come.

Inflation Differentials in Europe: Past Experience and Future Prospects

This paper analyzes past and potential inflation differentials for current EU Member States and the acceding countries. Although inflation differentials decreased significantly over the last ten years or so within the EU-15/EU-12 and the acceding countries, they are still on top of the policy agenda. Indeed there are a number of potential causes of inflation differentials. They range from cyclical factors via the exchange rate pass-through and oil price shocks to differences in productivity advances and changes in indirect taxes. Regarding the impact of these factors on inflation, a number of similarities can be found across countries. At the same time, because differences exist, e.g. in the cyclical position, the degree of openness, oil intensity or dependency as well as price and productivity levels, inflation differentials are not likely to vanish completely in the future. We also argue that the often cited catching-up factors, such as the Balassa-Samuelson effect, seem to be considerably weaker than generally believed. In addition, inflation differentials could be clearly associated with inappropriate national fiscal and structural policies.inflation differentials