Three Essays on the Effectiveness of Voluntary Forest Certification.

In Central Africa, finite contracts, weak local forest law, and poor monitoring erode incentives for firms to manage forests responsibly. In response, voluntary, independent certification of forest management practices has emerged as a policy tool. If firms choose to participate, in return for certified compliance with the standard they earn a price premium. Is voluntary forest certification effective at improving sustainable forest management? In this dissertation, I focus on Forest Stewardship Council’s Forest Management Certification (FSC) certification in Central Africa. I evaluate FSC effectiveness by investigating three questions. First, do FSC participants improve the environmental quality of their harvesting behavior? Second, does the net effect of FSC activities improve development outcomes for locals? And third, which forests participate in FSC and why? Do the highest priority forests participate? To answer these questions, I use multiple data sets and identification strategies. The data range from primary data collected from Congolese households along a certified forest border to a national panel of timber outcomes in Cameroon to a regional biogeographical dataset spanning Gabon, Cameroon, and Congo. Across the three chapters, my dissertation finds FSC effectiveness to be compromised by three policy design features: a relative standard for harvesting practices, process indicators for a multidimensional standard, and voluntary selection into the policy.PhDEconomicsUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/113559/1/jdoremus_1.pd

The Effects of Recreational Cannabis Access on Labor Markets: Evidence from Colorado

Recreational cannabis markets possibly increase labor demand through investments in facilities for growing, processing, and retail sales of cannabis, as well as through other industries such as manufacturing, leisure, and hospitality. However, this increase in labor demand may vary substantially across counties within a state as most states with legal recreational canna-bis allow individual counties to ban commercial cannabis sales. Meanwhile, labor supply may change through positive and negative effects from cannabis use. Using county-level Colorado data from 2011 to 2018 and exploiting variation across counties in the existence and timing of the start of dispensary sales, we test for changes in the unemployment rate, employment, and wages, overall and by industry subsector. Consistent with an increase in labor demand, we estimate that the sale of recreational cannabis through dispensaries is associated with a0.7 percentage point decrease in the unemployment rate with no effect on the size of the labor force. We also find a 4.5% increase in the number of employees, with the strongest effects found in manufacturing. We find no effect on wages. Given the lack of a reduction in labor force participation or wages, negative effects on labor supply are likely limited, in line with the existing literature. The decrease in unemployment, coupled with an increase in the number of employees, indicates that labor demand effects likely dominate effects on labor supply. Our results suggest that policymakers considering recreational access to cannabis should anticipate a possible increase in employment

Off-label Use of Recreational Cannabis: Acid Reflux in Colorado

Medical cannabis access has been shown to affect clinical health outcomes and health care spending. Unlike medical access, which requires a doctor\u27s recommendation for treatment and only applies to the limited conditions approved under the state\u27s medical cannabis program, recreational access makes cannabis available over-the-counter (OTC). This may create additional benefits through off-label cannabis use to treat unlisted conditions, such as acid reflux, which affects two out of three Americans. Using the roll out of recreational dispensaries in Colorado in 2014, we estimate the change in retailers\u27 market share of antacid medications using a difference-in-differences design. Antacid market share decreases after a dispensary enters a county by 0.85 percentage points. Decreases come from histamine receptor antagonists and proton pump inhibitors. Decreased antacid use may occur through direct substitution for OTC antacids, through changes in dietary behaviors that reduce antacid use, or both. More work is needed to disentangle these two effects

Using Recreational Cannabis to Treat Insomnia: Evidence from Over-the-Counter Sleep Aid Sales in Colorado

This study seeks to understand whether people substitute between recreational cannabis and conventional over-the-counter (OTC) sleep medications. UPC-level grocery store scanner data in a multivariable panel regression design were used to compare the change in the monthly market share of sleep aids with varying dispensary-based recreational cannabis access (existence, sales, and count) in Colorado counties between 12/2013 and 12/2014. We measured annually-differenced market shares for sleep aids as a portion of the overall OTC medication market, thus accounting for store-level demand shifts in OTC medication markets and seasonality, and used the monthly changes in stores’ sleep aid market share to control for short-term trends. Relative to the overall OTC medication market, sleep aid market shares were growing prior to recreational cannabis availability. The trend reverses (a 236% decrease) with dispensary entry (−0.33 percentage points, 95% CI −0.43 to −0.24, p \u3c 0.01) from a mean market share growth of 0.14 ± 0.97. The magnitude of the market share decline increases as more dispensaries enter a county and with higher county-level cannabis sales. The negative associations are driven by diphenhydramine- and doxylamine-based sleep aids rather than herbal sleep aids and melatonin. These findings support survey evidence that many individuals use cannabis to treat insomnia, although sleep disturbances are not a specific qualifying condition under any U.S. state-level medical cannabis law. Investigations designed to measure the relative effectiveness and side effect profiles of conventional OTC sleep aids and cannabis-based products are urgently needed to improve treatment of sleep disturbances while minimizing potentially serious negative side effects

Simpler is Better: Predicting Consumer Vehicle Purchases in the Short Run

When agencies such as the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establish future greenhouse gas emissions standards for new vehicles, forecasting future vehicle purchases due to changes in fuel economy and prices provides insight into regulatory impacts. We compare predictions from a nested logit model independently developed for US EPA to a simple model where past market share predicts future market share using data from model years 2008, 2010, and 2016. The simple model outperforms the nested logit model for all goodness-of-prediction measures for both prediction years. Including changes in vehicle price and fuel economy increases bias in forecasted market shares. This bias suggests price increases are correlated with unobserved increases in vehicle quality, changes in preferences, or brand-specific changes in market size but not cost pass-through. For 2010, past shares predict better than a nested logit model despite a major shock, the economic disruption caused by the Great Recession. Observed share changes during this turbulent period may offer upper bounds for policy changes in other contexts: the largest observed change in market share across the two horizons is 6.6% for manufacturers in 2016 and 3.4% for an individual vehicle in 2010

Fragmenting Forests: The Double Edge of Effective Forest Monitoring

The link between ineffective forest monitoring and forest degradation is well known. Under REDD+, monitoring stands to become more important as a means of maintaining incentive. Little attention however has been paid to the possible adverse consequences of forest monitoring. Our research develops a spatially explicit, agent-based model (ABM) of timber extraction in a Congo Basin forest concession to investigate the potential conservation impact of more effective monitoring. We modeled the building of access roads, and logging of legal timber and illegal timber, where illegal timber may be interpreted broadly to include prohibited species, smaller trees, or trees in areas where cutting is not permitted. We investigated road building under (1) random spot monitoring of logging sites and (2) monitoring of logged trunks at checkpoints. Our findings indicate that although more effective monitoring can reduce illegal harvesting, it can also lead to construction of denser road networks and higher levels of forest fragmentation, with an implied loss of biodiversity. These insights are particularly relevant in the context of REDD+, as they suggest that some monitoring strategies may lead to more forest fragmentation, even as they help reduce emissions

Individual Tree Detection in Large-Scale Urban Environments using High-Resolution Multispectral Imagery

We introduce a novel deep learning method for detection of individual trees in urban environments using high-resolution multispectral aerial imagery. We use a convolutional neural network to regress a confidence map indicating the locations of individual trees, which are localized using a peak finding algorithm. Our method provides complete spatial coverage by detecting trees in both public and private spaces, and can scale to very large areas. We performed a thorough evaluation of our method, supported by a new dataset of over 1,500 images and almost 100,000 tree annotations, covering eight cities, six climate zones, and three image capture years. We trained our model on data from Southern California, and achieved a precision of 73.6% and recall of 73.3% using test data from this region. We generally observed similar precision and slightly lower recall when extrapolating to other California climate zones and image capture dates. We used our method to produce a map of trees in the entire urban forest of California, and estimated the total number of urban trees in California to be about 43.5 million. Our study indicates the potential for deep learning methods to support future urban forestry studies at unprecedented scales

Climate Change Meets the Law of the Horse

The climate change policy debate has only recently turned its full attention to adaptation - how to address the impacts of climate change we have already begun to experience and that will likely increase over time. Legal scholars have in turn begun to explore how the many different fields of law will and should respond. During this nascent period, one overarching question has gone unexamined: how will the legal system as a whole organize around climate change adaptation? Will a new distinct field of climate change adaptation law and policy emerge, or will legal institutions simply work away at the problem through unrelated, duly self-contained fields, as in the famous Law of the Horse? This Article is the first to examine that question comprehensively, to move beyond thinking about the law and climate change adaptation to consider the law of climate change adaptation. Part I of the Article lays out our methodological premises and approach. Using a model we call Stationarity Assessment, Part I explores how legal fields are structured and sustained based on assumptions about the variability of natural, social, and economic conditions, and how disruptions to that regime of variability can lead to the emergence of new fields of law and policy. Case studies of environmental law and environmental justice demonstrate the model’s predictive power for the formation of new distinct legal regimes. Part II applies the Stationarity Assessment model to the topic of climate change adaptation, using a case study of a hypothetical coastal region and the potential for climate change impacts to disrupt relevant legal doctrines and institutions. We find that most fields of law appear capable of adapting effectively to climate change. In other words, without some active intervention, we expect the law and policy of climate change adaptation to follow the path of the Law of the Horse - a collection of fields independently adapting to climate change - rather than organically coalescing into a new distinct field. Part III explores why, notwithstanding this conclusion, it may still be desirable to seek a different trajectory. Focusing on the likelihood of systemic adaptation decisions with perverse, harmful results, we identify the potential benefits offered by intervening to shape a new and distinct field of climate change adaptation law and policy. Part IV then identifies the contours of such a field, exploring the distinct purposes of reducing vulnerability, ensuring resiliency, and safeguarding equity. These features provide the normative policy components for a law of climate change adaptation that would be more than just a Law of the Horse. This new field would not replace or supplant any existing field, however, as environmental law did with regard to nuisance law, and it would not be dominated by substantive doctrine. Rather, like the field of environmental justice, this new legal regime would serve as a holistic overlay across other fields to ensure more efficient, effective, and just climate change adaptation solutions

Unintended Impacts from Forest Certification: Evidence from Indigenous Aka Households in Congo

Does Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) certification of “responsible” commercial forestry change nutrition, health and wealth for indigenous peoples, like the Aka of the Congo Basin? Using hand-collected data from the boundary of a certified and an uncertified forest in the Republic of Congo five years after certification, I compare nutrition, health, and wealth using questions that are locally salient and survey timing designed to reach seminomadic hunter-gatherers. Though I only observe outcomes after certification, using a spatial regression discontinuity design I find suggestive evidence that activities to satisfy forest certification may cause increased food insecurity and illness frequency for Aka households. I find no evidence of increased material wealth; instead, the poorest 15th percentile is poorer for Aka households. Non-Aka households are unaffected. Activities to satisfy FSC include a road connection, likely requested by non-Aka households, which in combination with hunting restrictions may decrease food security for Aka hunter-gatherers

How Does Eco-Label Competition Affect Environmental Benefits? The Case of Central Africa’s Forests

Increasingly, non-governmental organization (NGO) and industry eco-labels compete. Environmental benefits may increase or decrease with entry by an industry label, depending on the shape of consumers’ willingness to pay and the shape of the distribution of forest compliance costs. Using geospatial data from forests in Cameroon and Gabon to proxy for compliance costs, I test whether lower compliance cost forests are more likely to participate in stricter labels. Next, I use a semi-nonparametric estimator to estimate parameters for willingness to pay and the distribution of forest compliance costs to calculate benefits with and without label competition. I find that, in this context, eco-label competition decreases environmental benefits by 17%. The industry label lures away a sufficient number of forests that would have chosen an NGO standard in autarky, overwhelming gains from broader participation and a stricter NGO standard. The distribution of forest compliance cost is skewed toward high cost forests. Willingness to pay is bowed: initial increases in protection have a high marginal willingness-to-pay but additional increases are less valuable. Industry certified wood prices are predicted to be 14–28% higher than uncertified wood. NGO certified wood prices are predicted to be 9–17% higher than industry certified wood