Three applications to French national electricity loadVRIJE UNIVERSITEIT

State-space modelling for high frequency dat

Intermittent energy sources availability in case of cold peaks in future climate

International audienceIndicators Wind capacity factors: based on three power curves representative of three wind turbine generator classes (IEC classes) and 10m-wind speed. 10m-wind speed is extrapolated at hub height. Solar capacity factors: based on performance ratio (see Jerez et. Al 2015). Solar radiation, as well as other meteorological fields (wind, temperature) can be used to define different indicators. Heating Degree Day weighted by population: based on thresholded 15°C deviation for temperature weighted by population (Eurostat) Electricity consumption: Based on a linear model using Heating degree day weighted by population adapted for each country. Intermittent energy source availability during cold peaks in future climate Context CLIM4ENERGY project, as part of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), aims to provide climate products tailored for the energy sector. The European electric power system is very sensitive to temperatures. The increase of intermittent renewable energies in the energy mix introduces an additional vulnerability to weather conditions. The contribution of intermittent renewable energies is analysed through wind and solar capacity factors built using meteorological fields (wind speed, radiation and temperature). Analysis at different time scales is necessary to help energy practitioners to take short and long term decisions. Objectives Design indicators tailored to the energy sector based on meteorological fields to anticipate the risk of imbalance. ➢ Winter: small change ➢ Cold events: small change ➢ Dispersion (France): almost no impact of climate change compared to interannual variability ➢ Winter: significant and robust change ➢ Cold events: significant and robust change ➢ Dispersion (France): major impact of climate change compared to interannual variability ➢ Winter: small change ➢ Cold events: small change ➢ Dispersion (France): small impact of climate change compared to interannual variabilit