Flood Risk Assessment for Urban Drainage System in a Changing Climate Using Artificial Neural Network

Changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change are expected to have negative impact on urban drainage systems, causing increase in flow volumes entering the system. In this paper, two emission scenarios for greenhouse concentration have been used, the high (A1FI) and the low (B1). Each scenario was selected for purpose of assessing the impacts on the drainage system. An artificial neural network downscaling technique was used to obtain local-scale future rainfall from three coarse-scale GCMs. An impact assessment was then carried out using the projected local rainfall and a risk assessment methodology to understand and quantify the potential hazard from surface flooding. The case study is a selected urban drainage catchment in northwestern England. The results show that there will be potential increase in the spilling volume from manholes and surcharge in sewers, which would cause a significant number of properties to be affected by flooding

The National Landslide Database of Great Britain : development, evolution and applications

Landslide inventories are essential because they provide the basis for predictive landslide hazard and susceptibility assessments and because they allow for the manipulation and storage of temporal and spatial data. The National Landslide Database has been developed by the British Geological Survey (BGS). It is the most extensive source of information on landslides in Great Britain with over 15,000 records of landslide events each documented as fully as possible. This information is invaluable for planners and developers as it helps them investigate, avoid or mitigate areas of unstable ground in accordance with Government planning policy guidelines. Therefore, it is vital that the continual verification, collection and updating of landslide information is carried out as part of the Survey’s ‘National Capability’ work. This paper describes the evolution from a static database to one that is continually updated forming part of a suite of national digital hazard products. The history of the National Landslide Database and associated Geographical Information System (GIS) is discussed, together with its application and future development

Landslide management in the UK— the problem of managing hazards in a ‘low-risk’ environment

The UK is a country with limited direct experience of natural disasters. Whilst landslide losses are not negligible and fatalities are rare, accounts are under-reported. Financial losses from landslides are poorly understood but likely to be considerably in excess of £10 million per year. As a result, a strategic management framework has evolved based upon small, low-impact events punctuated by occasional larger events or larger landslides affecting urban areas. We present an overview of the different landslide management mechanisms in the UK and discuss them in context of cases studies to explore their effectiveness. We conclude with three issues that may have implications for landslide management in the UK and other ‘low-risk’ countries. Firstly, the evidence base by which landslide hazards and risks are measured is insufficient and limitations in existing information need to be better understood. Secondly, existing guidance on strategic and responsive management needs to be assessed for its fitness for purpose. Thirdly, we encourage debate about the importance of near misses