An orders-of-magnitude AHP supply chain risk assessment framework

In the current business environment, both managers and researchers have realized that assessing and managing risk in a supply chain operation is crucial to business success. Furthermore, the traditional assessment methodologies are unable to deal with intangible criteria which are crucial factor in the analysis. Thus, we develop an orders-of-magnitude AHP (OM-AHP) based ex-ante supply chain risk assessment model, to enable the comparison of the tangible and intangible elements that influence supply chain risks. In the application of OM-AHP method to risk assessment it also became apparent a formal guiding structure of how to pivot using OM-AHP did not exist. A formal method is proposed that can significantly reduce the number of needed comparisons and improve the consistency with pairwise comparisons matrices under any AHP decision. The process of the proposed supply chain risk assessment framework consists of three phases: risk identification, risk assessment, and risk ranking and analysis. An illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed risk assessment framework. The results are organized in a 2-way risk matrix based on their probability and consequence severity and tested for robustness via sensitivity analysis

A peer-to-peer dynamic adaptive consensus reaching model for the group AHP decision making

Consensus reaching models are widely applied in group decision making problems to improve the group\u27s consensus level before making a common decision. Within the context of the group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a novel consensus reaching model in a dynamic decision environment is proposed. A Markov chain method can be used to determine the decision makers\u27 weights of importance for the aggregation process with respect to the group members\u27 opinion transition probabilities. The proposed group consensus reaching model facilitates a peer to peer opinion exchange process which relieves the group of the need for a moderator by using an automatic feedback mechanism. Moreover, as the elements in the group decision framework change in a dynamic decision making problem, this model provides feedback suggestions that adaptively adjust for each of the decision makers depending on his credibility in each round. The full process of the dynamic adaptive consensus reaching model is presented and its properties are discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of our model

Bilateral relations between China and the United States: Policy prioritization with the ANP

Improving relations between the People\u27s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (US) and ensuring that they work together as allies rather than as competitors can serve as a stabilizing force against armed conflict, particularly with surrounding nations. The economic, social, and political relationships between the PRC and US have progressed along a hilly journey. As the second largest economy in the world, the PRC has continued to develop its military and is determined to climb the technological ladder. This growth has led the US and the PRC to be referred to as a G-2 of superpowers. As the US hegemony continues to weaken this G-2 relationship is becoming more important. With significant economic, political, and security issues at stake it is crucial that efforts to strengthen these relations are prioritized and implemented. A rigorous prioritization process, the Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used herein to prioritize the efforts and initiatives in the G-2 relationship. The model is presented with results and the extensive sensitivity analysis present additional insight into the suggested solutions. © 2013 Systems Engineering Society of China and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Gaining consensus in a moderated group: A model with a twofold feedback mechanism

The group Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is an effective tool to collect experts’ wisdom to evaluate complex decision making problems. Because judgments are always diverse in the real world, it is crucial to adequately support the consensus reaching process. In this paper, we develop a convergent group AHP consensus reaching model with a twofold feedback mechanism, which consists of both a judgment and a weighting feedback mechanism. In each round of this dynamic and interactive model, the most incompatible expert is asked to revise her judgment according to the judgment feedback mechanism. If the expert rejects the suggestion, her weight of importance will be adjusted downward based on the compatibility within the group by the weighting feedback mechanism. The proof of convergence of this consensus reaching model with the twofold mechanism is also provided and discussed. Hence this proposed consensus reaching process supports the leader or client in reaching a successful decision with a dispersed group of experts. The proposed consensus reaching model is applied to the brake pad supplier selection problem of Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. The empirical example demonstrates that the proposed methodology provides an operational decision framework for companies to select suitable suppliers in the supplier involvement under the environment of collaborative product development (SICPD) through its successful application in that contex

Big Data in the Big D

Presentation paper for the 2017 International Conference on Knowledge Management. This paper uses a link prediction algorithm based on Node Embedding to map disease nodes in order to discover disease associations more precisely and predict the risk of certain diseases

Big Data in the Big D

Presentation for the 2017 International Conference on Knowledge Management. This presentation describes the use of a link prediction algorithm based on node embedding to map disease nodes and reveal relationships among various diseases

The causal effect of schizophrenia on fractures and bone mineral density: a comprehensive two-sample Mendelian randomization study of European ancestry

Abstract Background Schizophrenia was clinically documented to co-occur with fractures and aberrant bone mineral density (BMD), but the potential causal relationship remained unclear. This study aimed to test the causal effects between schizophrenia and fractures as well as aberrant BMD by conducting Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. Methods Two-sample MR was utilized, based on instrumental variables from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of schizophrenia as exposure, to identify the causal association of schizophrenia with mixed fractures, fractures at different body sites (including skull and facial bones, shoulder and upper arm, wrist and hand, and femur) and BMDs of forearm (FA), femoral neck (FN), lumbar spine (LS) and estimated BMD (eBMD). Multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) analysis was performed to minimize the confounding effect of body mass index (BMI). Results Result from inverse variance weighting (IVW) method provided evidence schizophrenia increased the risk of fractures of skull and facial bones [odds ratio (OR) = 1.0006, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0003 to 1.0010] and femur [OR =1.0007, 95% CI: 1.0003 to 1.0011], whereas, decreased the level of eBMD [β (95%CI): -0.013 (-0.021, -0.004)]. These causal effects still existed after adjusting for BMI. Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. However, no causal effect of schizophrenia on fracture or BMD in other parts was detected. Conclusion The current finding confirmed that schizophrenia was causally associated with the fractures of skull, face and femur as well as eBMD, which might remind psychiatrists to pay close attention to the fracture risk in schizophrenic patients when formulating their treatment strategies

Additional file 1 of The causal effect of schizophrenia on fractures and bone mineral density: a comprehensive two-sample Mendelian randomization study of European ancestry

Additional file 1: Table S1. Instrumental variables used for Mendelian randomization. Table S2. Mendelian randomization results for causal effect of schizophrenia on fracture. IVW, inverse-variance weighted; WM, Weighted median. Table S3. Results of heterogeneity test, sensitivity analysis and power for Mendelian. Table S4. Mendelian randomization results for causal effect of schizophrenia on FN and LS BMD IVW, inverse-variance weighted; WM, Weighted median. Table S5. Results of MVMR analyses of the causal effect of schizophrenia on fracture and BMD adjusting for BMI