Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity estimates of triplex RT-PCR compared to reference RT-PCR and PCR assays for CSFV and ASFV.

<p>Diagnostic sensitivity and specificity estimates of triplex RT-PCR compared to reference RT-PCR and PCR assays for CSFV and ASFV.</p

Viruses used to determine analytical specificity of the triplex RT-PCR assay.

<p>Viruses used to determine analytical specificity of the triplex RT-PCR assay.</p

Comparison of triplex RT-PCR with reference RT-PCR and PCR assays for detection of CSFV and ASFV in experimental and field samples.

<p>Comparison of triplex RT-PCR with reference RT-PCR and PCR assays for detection of CSFV and ASFV in experimental and field samples.</p

Description of symbols used in the model.

<p>Description of symbols used in the model.</p

Primer and probes used in the triplex RT-PCR.

<p>Primer and probes used in the triplex RT-PCR.</p

Analytical sensitivity of triplex and reference method PCRs on samples from experimentally infected animals.

<p>(A) Viral RNA, extracted from blood samples taken at various time points post challenge from 2 animals (circles or squares) experimentally infected with CSFV and analysed by triplex RT-PCR (filled symbols) or CSFV RT-nPCR-TaqMan assay (open symbols). (B) Viral RNA, extracted from homogenised spleen samples taken from 6 pigs euthanized at various time points post challenge with ASFV and analysed by triplex RT-PCR (filled symbols) and ASFV-PCR (open symbols).</p

Performance of the estimation algorithm over three series of 100 simulations (test, 2007, 2001).

<p>Performance of the estimation algorithm over three series of 100 simulations (test, 2007, 2001).</p

Estimation output for the 2007 UK outbreak.

<p>Top left: posterior probabilities of transmissions (dot sizes proportional to probabilities). Top right: tree with the highest posterior probability mapped in space (black arrows). Bottom: posterior distributions (histograms) of mean latency duration (; left) and mean transmission distance (; right); dotted-dashed curves: prior distributions; solid lines: posterior medians; dotted lines: posterior quantiles 0.025 and 0.975.</p

Estimation output for the 2001 UK outbreak (Darlington cluster).

<p>Top left: posterior probabilities of transmissions (dot sizes proportional to probabilities). Top right: tree with the highest posterior probability mapped in space (black arrows). Bottom: posterior distributions (histograms) of mean latency duration (; left) and mean transmission distance (; right); dotted-dashed curves: prior distributions; solid lines: posterior medians; dotted lines: posterior quantiles 0.025 and 0.975.</p

Direct acyclic graph illustrating the dependencies in the model.

<p>Bold letters are used to represent sets of variables, with one variable per farm, e.g. . For a full description of the symbols, see <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002768#pcbi-1002768-t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>.</p