No harm, no foul: The outcome bias in ethical judgments

We present six studies demonstrating that outcome information biases ethical judgments of others' ethically-questionable behaviors. In particular, we show that the same behaviors produce more ethical condemnation when they happen to produce bad rather than good outcomes, even if the outcomes are determined by chance. Our studies show that individuals judge behaviors as less ethical, more blameworthy, and punish them more harshly, when such behaviors led to undesirable consequences, even if they saw those behaviors as acceptable before they knew its consequences. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that a rational, analytic mindset can override the effects of one's intuitions in ethical judgments. Implications for both research and practice are discussed.outcome bias, unethical behavior, judgment, ethical decision making

A Behavioral Demonstration of Overconfidence in Judgment

Overprecision—an excessive confidence that one knows the truth—is both the most durable and the least understood form of overconfidence. This article outlines an approach to the study of overprecision that avoids some of the methodological problems of other approaches and better reflects the way uncertainty affects choices in everyday life. We measured the precision in judgment implied by people’s tendency to adjust their point estimates of an uncertain quantity in response to the costs of overestimating or underestimating the correct answer. The results revealed robust overprecision. People adjusted their estimates less than they should have given their actual knowledge, and this effect was driven by their subjective confidence

Inflated Applicants: Attribution Errors in Performance Evaluation by Professionals

When explaining others' behaviors, achievements, and failures, it is common for people to attribute too much influence to disposition and too little influence to structural and situational factors. We examine whether this tendency leads even experienced professionals to make systematic mistakes in their selection decisions, favoring alumni from academic institutions with high grade distributions and employees from forgiving business environments. We find that candidates benefiting from favorable situations are more likely to be admitted and promoted than their equivalently skilled peers. The results suggest that decision-makers take high nominal performance as evidence of high ability and do not discount it by the ease with which it was achieved. These results clarify our understanding of the correspondence bias using evidence from both archival studies and experiments with experienced professionals. We discuss implications for both admissions and personnel selection practices

Is overconfidence a social liability? The effect of verbal versus nonverbal expressions of confidence.

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 116(3) of Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (see record 2019-08943-002). In the article "Is Overconfidence a Social Liability? The Effect of Verbal Versus Nonverbal Expressions of Confidence" by Elizabeth R. Tenney, Nathan L. Meikle, David Hunsaker, Don A. Moore, and Cameron Anderson (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Advance online publication. October 11, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspi0000150), the Editor' Note acknowledging David Dunning as the action editor for this article was omitted. All versions of this article have been corrected.] What are the reputational consequences of being overconfident? We propose that the channel of confidence expression is one key moderator-that is, whether confidence is expressed verbally or nonverbally. In a series of experiments, participants assessed target individuals (potential collaborators or advisors) who were either overconfident or cautious. Targets expressed confidence, or a lack thereof, verbally or nonverbally. Participants then learned targets' actual performance. Across studies, overconfidence was advantageous initially-regardless of whether targets expressed confidence verbally or nonverbally. After performance was revealed, overconfident targets who had expressed confidence verbally were viewed more negatively than cautious targets; however, overconfident targets who had expressed confidence nonverbally were still viewed more positively than cautious ones. The one condition wherein nonverbal overconfidence was detrimental was when confidence was clearly tied to a falsifiable claim. Results suggest that, compared with verbal statements, nonverbal overconfidence reaps reputational benefits because of its plausible deniability. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved)

(Too) optimistic about optimism: The belief that optimism improves performance.

A series of experiments investigated why people value optimism and whether they are right to do so. In Experiments 1A and 1B, participants prescribed more optimism for someone implementing decisions than for someone deliberating, indicating that people prescribe optimism selectively, when it can affect performance. Furthermore, participants believed optimism improved outcomes when a person's actions had considerable, rather than little, influence over the outcome (Experiment 2). Experiments 3 and 4 tested the accuracy of this belief; optimism improved persistence, but it did not improve performance as much as participants expected. Experiments 5A and 5B found that participants overestimated the relationship between optimism and performance even when their focus was not on optimism exclusively. In summary, people prescribe optimism when they believe it has the opportunity to improve the chance of success-unfortunately, people may be overly optimistic about just how much optimism can do

Effect of BMP Implementation on Storm Flow Quality of Two Northwestern Arkansas Streams

The effectiveness of management practices in improving quality of runoff from agricultural land areas has been reported based primarily on results from plot- and field-scale studies. There is limited information available on watershed scales, particularly when the dominant agricultural land use is pasture. The objective of this study was to determine whether a program of Best Management Practice (BMP) implementation in the Lincoln Lake watershed of northwestern Arkansas was effective in reducing storm stream flow concentrations and mass transport of nitrate nitrogen (NO3-N), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), ortho-phosphorus (PO4-P), total phosphorus (TP), chemical oxygen demand (COD), and total suspended solids (TSS). Storm flow quality of the two main tributaries to Lincoln Lake was monitored from September 1991 to April 1994. Significant decreases (from 23 to 75% per year) in both concentrations and mass transport of NO3-N, NH3-N, TKN, and COD occurred concurrently with BMP implementation. The decreases in nitrogen and COD concentrations and mass transport are attributed to BMP implementation, and the BMP most responsible for these decreases is most likely nutrient management