Working Paper 13-10 - Electric cars: Back to the future?

The main objective of the paper is to evaluate the development of the EV in a couple of selected energy scenarios, to address the influence climate policy and the presence of nuclear energy can have on this development and to estimate the impact of different EV penetration rates on electricity demand. Throughout the paper, it becomes clear that, in the absence of specific, dedicated EV public programmes, policies and measures aimed at curbing climate change spark off the penetration of EVs, especially on a longer time horizon (up to 2030): with post 2012 climate policy in place, the pure EV penetration in 2020 attains approximately 2% of the road vehicle fleet while in 2030, around 5% of the road vehicle fleet will be electrically propelled. In the time span up to 2020, the electricity consumption of the EVs is rather small: it ranges between 0.4 and 0.5 TWh. It isn't until 2025 and 2030 that EVs start to have a more visible impact on electricity consumption, stretching out between 1.2 and 1.4 TWh which represents approximately 1% of the total final electricity demand in 2030. Nuclear energy can then be a modest incentive for EVs through, assuming perfect market functioning, a decrease in electricity prices, hence triggering a slightly higher EV penetration. This paper assumes that no specific dedicated policies are in place to stimulate the upsurge of EVs. If policy makers decide they want to support and even intensify the expansion of EVs considering their positive impact on oil independency, climate change, transport efficiency and possibly job retention/creation, further policy measures (beyond climate policy) embedded in a long term national master plan are of utmost importance.Electric vehicles, Electricity demand, Climate change

Working Paper 16-09 - EU Energy/Climate package and energy supply security in Belgium

In December 2008, the European Union adopted an integrated Energy/Climate package which steps up the Union's energy and climate policy ambitions to a new level and outlines how the effort will be shared among the Member States. This paper underlines the benefits of the EU Energy/Climate package in terms of energy supply security for Belgium, and more specifically the positive impacts the twin target – greenhouse gas emissions reduction and development of renewable energy sources – has on our dependence on fossil fuels. More specifically, the paper shows that substitutions in favour of renewables and a decrease in energy demand including the demand for electricity, which are the key responses of the Belgian energy system to the Energy/Climate package, not only allow to keep a balanced fuel mix in power  generation in 2020 but also lead to reduced overall fossil fuel imports relative to baseline projections. They also water down the trend towards an increased dependency on natural gas imports. Net imports of fossil fuels decrease by 9% in 2020 compared to baseline trends. Compared to the year 2005, they increase only slightly by 3%. The growth of natural gas imports is limited to 11% over the same period, against +21% in the baseline.Climate policy, Energy policy, Fossil fuels, Renewable energy sources, Supply security

Working Paper 09-11 - Impact of the EU Climate-Energy Package on the Belgian energy system and economy - Update 2010 Study commissioned by the Belgian federal authority

By the end of 2008, the Federal Planning Bureau published the Working Paper 21-08. This Working Paper described and analysed the impact of the EU Climate-Energy Package on the Belgian energy system and economy. Since then, however, a lot has changed: the macroeconomic projections altered radically further to the financial and economic crisis, recent developments in the field of oil and gas supply and demand made fossil fuel price projections to be revised upwards and a number of energy efficiency measures were agreed upon and put into law in the course of 2008 and 2009. All this made the 2008 study less relevant whilst only 2 years old. This study report then updates the analysis reported in the Working Paper 21-08 and dedicates special attention to the stepping up to -30% for the EU greenhouse gas reduction target. It is based on the new economic and policy context and benefits from recent analyses of the European Commission conducted at EU level.Climate policy, Economic efficiency, Energy policy, Greenhouse gas emissions, Long-term energy projections, Macroeconomic impact

Working Paper 21-08 - Impact of the EU Energy and Climate Package on the Belgian energy system and economy - Study commissioned by the Belgian federal and three regional authorities

In order to prepare for the negotiations on the EU Energy and Climate Package, the Federal Planning Bureau was asked by the Belgian federal and regional authorities to conduct a study on the impact of the January 2008 European Commission's proposal. In the course of this study, various scenarios were run. Next to a baseline, two main alternative scenarios were scrutinised: the 20/20 and 30/20 target scenarios, standing for an EU reduction of respectively 20% and 30% of GHG emissions in the year 2020 compared to the level of 1990 and a 20% mandatory EU share of RES in Gross Final Energy Demand in 2020. The report then includes an analysis of the impact of both scenarios on the Belgian energy system and economy as well as on GHG emissions.Energy policy, Climate policy, Economic efficiency, Long-term energy projections, Greenhouse gas emissions, Macroeconomic impact

Working Paper 16-10 - The PLANET model - Methodological Report: Modelling of Short Sea Shipping and Bus-Tram-Metro

This Working Paper describes the methodological changes in the Modal and Time Choice module of the PLANET model, further to the endogenisation of short see shipping for international transport and the splitting of the Bus-Tram-Metro aggregate into three distinct transport modes.Freight and passenger transport model, Long-term transport projections

Working Paper 14-09 - Analyse de l’impact de différents schémas théoriques d’une taxe routière en Belgique

New measures need to be taken in order to reduce the negative impact of transport. This study presents various theoretical schemes for the introduction of road pricing in Belgium and analyses their impact on transport, the environment and welfare by using the PLANET model. The internalisation of external costs, while difficult to implement in the short term, improves welfare significantly. In order to improve welfare, a road tax system aimed at lorries exclusively should allow for a suitable differentiation according to the actual periods of transport. Extending the road pricing system so as to include vans has a positive effect on welfare and also avoids shifting part of the road freight to vans. Extending road pricing to all road motor vehicles (lorries, vans and individual cars) significantly improves welfare, road congestion and the average speed on the road network. On the other hand, it induces a very marked surge in the demand for rail and other public transport (buses, trams and metros), which would almost certainly exceed the capacity of existing infrastructures. Potential management problems of rail and other public transport such as buses, trams and metros could be avoided if the generalisation of the road pricing system to all road motor vehicles were combined with the withdrawal of subsidies for public transport.Long-term projection, External costs of transport, Transport policy, Passenger and freight transport

Perspectives d'évolution à long terme du transport en Belgique et conséquences sur la consommation d'énergie et les émissions de CO2

?Transport is the activity that has experienced the most dramatic increase in energy consumption and CO 2 emissions during the last ten years and this trend is likely to continue in a « business as usual» context over the next thirty years. This last result is one of the main outcomes of a recent study of the Federal Planning Bureau, « Belgian energy outlook to 2030 » describing and analysing long-term energy scenarios. Given this reference trend, an alternative scenario has been evaluated that simulates the impact of modal shift to the detriment of road transport and of higher loading factors of vehicles, from the viewpoint of both energy consumption and environmental implications. The main results of this evaluation at the horizon 2030 are presented in this paper.Transport activity, long term perspectives, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, modal shift