Perspectives d'évolution à long terme du transport en Belgique et conséquences sur la consommation d'énergie et les émissions de CO2

Abstract

?Transport is the activity that has experienced the most dramatic increase in energy consumption and CO 2 emissions during the last ten years and this trend is likely to continue in a « business as usual» context over the next thirty years. This last result is one of the main outcomes of a recent study of the Federal Planning Bureau, « Belgian energy outlook to 2030 » describing and analysing long-term energy scenarios. Given this reference trend, an alternative scenario has been evaluated that simulates the impact of modal shift to the detriment of road transport and of higher loading factors of vehicles, from the viewpoint of both energy consumption and environmental implications. The main results of this evaluation at the horizon 2030 are presented in this paper.Transport activity, long term perspectives, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, modal shift