Biased probability judgement: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample

International audienceMany economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of the respondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findings also indicate that the observed biases are related to individual economic outcomes, which suggests potential policy relevance of our findings

Disordered Electrons in a Strong Magnetic Field: Transfer Matrix Approaches to the Statistics of the Local Density of States

We present two novel approaches to establish the local density of states as an order parameter field for the Anderson transition problem. We first demonstrate for 2D quantum Hall systems the validity of conformal scaling relations which are characteristic of order parameter fields. Second we show the equivalence between the critical statistics of eigenvectors of the Hamiltonian and of the transfer matrix, respectively. Based on this equivalence we obtain the order parameter exponent $\alpha_0\approx 3.4$ for 3D quantum Hall systems.Comment: 4 pages, 3 Postscript figures, corrected scale in Fig.