Changes in cirrus cloudiness and their relationship to contrails

Condensation trails, or contrails, formed in the wake of high-altitude aircraft have long been suspected of causing the formation of additional cirrus cloud cover. More cirrus is possible because 10 - 20% of the atmosphere at typical commercial flight altitudes is clear but ice-saturated. Since they can affect the radiation budget like natural cirrus clouds of equivalent optical depth and microphysical properties, contrail -generated cirrus clouds are another potential source of anthropogenic influence on climate. Initial estimates of contrail radiative forcing (CRF) were based on linear contrail coverage and optical depths derived from a limited number of satellite observations. Assuming that such estimates are accurate, they can be considered as the minimum possible CRF because contrails often develop into cirrus clouds unrecognizable as contrails. These anthropogenic cirrus are not likely to be identified as contrails from satellites and would, therefore, not contribute to estimates of contrail coverage. The mean lifetime and coverage of spreading contrails relative to linear contrails are needed to fully assess the climatic effect of contrails, but are difficult to measure directly. However, the maximum possible impact can be estimated using the relative trends in cirrus coverage over regions with and without air traffic. In this paper, the upper bound of CRF is derived by first computing the change in cirrus coverage over areas with heavy air traffic relative to that over the remainder of the globe assuming that the difference between the two trends is due solely to contrails. This difference is normalized to the corresponding linear contrail coverage for the same regions to obtain an average spreading factor. The maximum contrail-cirrus coverage, estimated as the product of the spreading factor and the linear contrail coverage, is then used in the radiative model to estimate the maximum potential CRF for current air traffic

Potential Radiative Impact of Contrail Coverage over Continental USA Estimated from AVHRR Data

Contrails are a potential factor in anthropogenic climate change because they often form in aircraft exhaust and can develop into persistent cirrus clouds. Air traffic is currently increasing a

Global Distribution of Contrail Radiative Forcing

The global distribution of radiative forcing by persistent linear contrails has been estimated for 1992 and 2050 using global contrail cover computed for aircraft fuel consumption scenarios for the two periods, a detailed prescription of the radiative properties of the Earth’s surface and the cloudy atmosphere, and flux computations with an established radiative transfer model. The computed global mean radiative forcing by line-shaped contrails is ∼0.02 Wm-2 in 1992 and ∼0.1 Wm-2 in 2050. At northern mid-latitudes, the zonal mean forcing is five times larger than the global mean. Diffuse contrails and indirect effects of aircraft emissions on natural cirrus are not included in this study. Thus, the results are considered a minimum estimate of contrail effects

Radiative forcing by contrails

A parametric study of the instantaneous radiative impact of contrails is presented using three different radiative transfer models for a series of model atmospheres and cloud parameters. Contrails are treated as geometrically and optically thin plane parallel homogeneous cirrus layers in a static atmosphere. The ice water content is varied as a function of ambient temperature. The model atmospheres include tropical, midlatitude, and subarctic summer and winter atmospheres. Optically thin contrails cause a positive net forcing at top of the atmosphere. At the surface the radiative forcing is negative during daytime. The forcing increases with the optical depth and the amount of contrail cover. At top of the atmosphere, a mean contrail cover of 0.1% with average optical depth of 0.2 to 0.5 causes about 0.01 to 0.03 Wm"-"2 daily mean instantaneous radiative forcing. Contrails cool the surface during the day and heat the surface during the night, and hence reduce the daily temperature amplitude. The net effect depends strongly on the daily variation of contrail cloud cover. The indirect radiative forcing due to particle changes in natural cirrus clouds may be of the same magnitude as the direct one due to additional cover. (orig.)80 refs.Available from TIB Hannover: RR 6341(108) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman