Recurrent event survival analysis predicts future risk of hospitalization in patients with paroxysmal and persistent atrial fibrillation

BackgroundIn patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) or persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF) symptom burden and fear of hospital readmission are major causes of reduced quality of life. We attempted to develop a prediction model for future atrial fibrillation hospitalization (AFH) risk in PAF and PeAF patients including all previously experienced AFHs in the analysis, as opposed to time to first event.MethodsRecurrent event survival analysis was used to model the impact of past AFHs on the risk of future AFHs. A recurrent event was defined as a hospitalization due to a new episode of AF. Death or progression to permanent AF were included as competing risks.ResultsWe enrolled 174 patients with PAF or PeAF, mean follow up duration was 1279 days, and 325 AFHs were observed. Median patient age was 63.0 (IQR 52.2-68.0), 29% had PAF, and 71% were male. Highly significant predictors of future AFH risk were PeAF (HR 3.20, CI 2.01-5.11) and number of past AFHs observed (HR for 1 event: 2.97, CI 2.04-4.32, HR for ≥2 events: 7.54, CI 5.47-10.40).ConclusionIn PAF and PeAF patients, AF type and observed AFH frequency are highly significant predictors of future AFH risk. The developed model enables risk prediction in individual patients based on AFH history and baseline characteristics, utilizing all events experienced by the patient. This is the first time recurrent event survival analysis has been used in AF patients

Association of genetic variants previously implicated in coronary artery disease with age at onset of coronary artery disease requiring revascularizations

BACKGROUND:The relation between burden of risk factors, familial coronary artery disease (CAD), and known genetic variants underlying CAD and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels is not well-explored in clinical samples. We aimed to investigate the association of these measures with age at onset of CAD requiring revascularizations in a clinical sample of patients undergoing first-time coronary angiography. METHODS:1599 individuals (mean age 64 years [min-max 29-96 years], 28% women) were genotyped (from blood drawn as part of usual clinical care) in the Copenhagen area (2010-2014). The burden of common genetic variants was measured as aggregated genetic risk scores (GRS) of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered in genome-wide association studies. RESULTS:Self-reported familial CAD (prevalent in 41% of the sample) was associated with -3.2 years (95% confidence interval -4.5, -2.2, p<0.0001) earlier need of revascularization in sex-adjusted models. Patients with and without familial CAD had similar mean values of CAD-GRS (unweighted scores 68.4 vs. 68.0, p = 0.10, weighted scores 67.7 vs. 67.5, p = 0.49) and LDL-C-GRS (unweighted scores 58.5 vs. 58.3, p = 0.34, weighted scores 63.3 vs. 61.1, p = 0.41). The correlation between the CAD-GRS and LDL-C-GRS was low (r = 0.14, p<0.001). In multivariable adjusted regression models, each 1 standard deviation higher values of LDL-C-GRS and CAD-GRS were associated with -0.70 years (95% confidence interval -1.25, -0.14, p = 0.014) and -0.51 years (-1.07, 0.04, p = 0.07) earlier need for revascularization, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Young individuals presenting with CAD requiring surgical interventions had a higher genetic burden of SNPs relating to LDL-C and CAD (although the latter was statistically non-significant), compared with older individuals. However, the absolute difference was modest, suggesting that genetic screening can currently not be used as an effective prediction tool of when in life a person will develop CAD. Whether undiscovered genetic variants can still explain a "missing heritability" in early-onset CAD warrants more research

Percutaneous atrial appendage occlusion for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation : a systematic review

This review aims to evaluate systematically the safety and efficacy of percutaneous left atrial appendage occlusion (PLAAO) in stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). A systematic review of peer-reviewed journals on PLAAO before June 2011 was performed on three electronic databases. Fourteen studies were identified for evaluation. Overall, implantation was successful in 93% of all cases. Periprocedural mortality and stroke rates were 1.1% and 0.6%, respectively. The incidences of pericardial effusion/cardiac tamponade and device embolisation were 4% and 0.7%, respectively. At the time of the latest follow-up (up to 40 months), the overall incidence of stroke among all studies was 1.4% per annum. Existing evidence suggests that PLAAO is a relatively safe treatment for patients with AF. However, there is a need for further evaluation of its efficacy in the form of large and well-designed randomised controlled trials.8 page(s