Modelling sustainable international tourism demand to the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil’s North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. Economic progress of the region has been achieved at a cost of destroying large areas of the Amazon rain forest. In this scenario, the tourism industry would seem to have the potential to contribute to sustainable economic development in the North region of Brazil. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.forecasting;conditional volatility models;Brazilian Amazon;international tourism demand;time series modelling

Modelling the Growth and Volatility in Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO’s World Heritage List. For the potential negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.Daily International Tourim; Conditional Mean Models; Conditional Volatility Models.

"Modelling and Forecasting Daily International Mass Tourism to Peru"

Peru is a South American country that is divided into two parts by the Andes Mountains. The rich historical, cultural and geographic diversity has led to the inclusion of ten Peruvian sites on UNESCO's World Heritage List. For the potentially negative impacts of mass tourism on the environment, and hence on future international tourism demand, to be managed appropriately require modelling growth rates and volatility adequately. The paper models the growth rate and volatility (or the variability in the growth rate) in daily international tourist arrivals to Peru from 1997 to 2007. The empirical results show that international tourist arrivals and their growth rates are stationary, and that the estimated symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models all fit the data extremely well. Moreover, the estimates resemble those arising from financial time series data, with both short and long run persistence of shocks to the growth rate in international tourist arrivals.

Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world’s greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world’s environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Pará (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil’s North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Pará, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.Brazilian Amazon; International Tourism Demand; Time Series Modelling; Conditional Volatility Models; Forecasting.

"Modelling Sustainable International Tourism Demand to the Brazilian Amazon"

The Amazon rainforest is one of the world's greatest natural wonders and holds great importance and significance for the world's environmental balance. Around 60% of the Amazon rainforest is located in the Brazilian territory. The two biggest states of the Amazon region are Amazonas (the upper Amazon) and Para (the lower Amazon), which together account for around 73% of the Brazilian Legal Amazon, and are the only states that are serviced by international airports in Brazil's North region. The purpose of this paper is to model and forecast sustainable international tourism demand for the states of Amazonas, Para, and the aggregate of the two states. By sustainable tourism is meant a distinctive type of tourism that has relatively low environmental and cultural impacts. Economic progress brought about by illegal wood extraction and commercial agriculture has destroyed large areas of the Amazon rainforest. The sustainable tourism industry has the potential to contribute to the economic development of the Amazon region without destroying the rainforest. The paper presents unit root tests for monthly and annual data, estimates alternative time series models and conditional volatility models of the shocks to international tourist arrivals, and provides forecasts for 2006 and 2007.

Bayesian logistic regression for presence-only data

Presence-only data are referred to situations in which a censoring mechanism acts on a binary response which can be partially observed only with respect to one outcome, usually denoting the \textit{presence} of an attribute of interest. A typical example is the recording of species presence in ecological surveys. In this work a Bayesian approach to the analysis of presence-only data based on a two levels scheme is presented. A probability law and a case-control design are combined to handle the double source of uncertainty: one due to censoring and the other one due to sampling. In the paper, through the use of a stratified sampling design with non-overlapping strata, a new formulation of the logistic model for presence-only data is proposed. In particular, the logistic regression with linear predictor is considered. Estimation is carried out with a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm with data augmentation, which does not require the a priori knowledge of the population prevalence. The performance of the new algorithm is validated by means of extensive simulation experiments using three scenarios and comparison with optimal benchmarks. An application to data existing in literature is reported in order to discuss the model behaviour in real world situations together with the results of an original study on termites occurrences data

Afinal de contas, a inteligência artificial não é inteligente: à procura de uma definição neurocientífica compreensível da inteligência

This paper explores a series of thoughts about the meaning of intelligence in neuroscience and computer science. This work aims to present an understandable definition that fits our contemporary artificial intelligence background. The research methodology of this essay lies in existing theories of artificial intelligence, focused on computer science and neuroscience. I analyze the relationship between intelligence and neuroscience and Hawkin’s Thousand Brains Theory, an approach to show what it is an intelligent agent according to neuroscience. Here, the main result relies on the verification that intelligence is only possible in the neocortex. According to this result, the study performs a second critical analysis aiming to demonstrate why there is no artificial intelligence today.Este trabajo explora una serie de reflexiones sobre el significado de la inteligencia en la neurociencia y la informática. El objetivo de este trabajo es presentar una definición comprensible que se ajuste a nuestro entorno contemporáneo de inteligencia artificial. Se analiza la relación entre la inteligencia y la neurociencia y presento la teoría de los mil cerebros de Hawkins, un enfoque para mostrar qué es un agente inteligente según la neurociencia. Aquí, el principal resultado se basa en la comprobación de que la inteligencia sólo es posible en el neocórtex. De acuerdo con este resultado, el estudio hace un segundo análisis crítico con el objetivo de demostrar por qué no existe la inteligencia artificial en la actualidad. La metodología de investigación de este ensayo se basa en las teorías existentes sobre la inteligencia artificial, centradas en la informática y la neurociencia.Este trabalho explora uma série de reflexões sobre o significado da inteligência na neurociência e informática. O objetivo desse trabalho é apresentar uma definição compreensível que se ajuste ao nosso ambiente contemporâneo de inteligência artificial. Analisa-se a relação entre inteligência e a neurociência e a teoria dos mil cérebros de Hawkins, uma abordagem para mostrar que é um agente inteligente segundo a neurociência. O principal resultado se baseia na comprovação de que a inteligência só é possível na neocórtex. De acordo com esse resultado, o estudo faz uma segunda análise crítica com o objetivo de demonstrar por que não existe inteligência artificial na atualidade. A metodologia aplicada a esta pesquisa baseou-se nas teorias existentes sobre a inteligência artificial, centradas na informática e na neurociência