Scaling of seismicity induced by nonlinear fluid-rock interaction after an injection stop

Fluid injections into unconventional reservoirs, performed for fluid-mobility enhancement, are accompanied by microseismic activity also after the injection. Previous studies revealed that the triggering of seismic events can be effectively described by nonlinear diffusion of pore fluid pressure perturbations where the hydraulic diffusivity becomes pressure dependent. The spatiotemporal distribution of postinjection-induced microseismicity has two important features: the triggering front, corresponding to early and distant events, and the back front, representing the time-dependent spatial envelope of the growing seismic quiescence zone. Here for the first time, we describe analytically the temporal behavior of these two fronts after the injection stop in the case of nonlinear pore fluid pressure diffusion. We propose a scaling law for the fronts and show that they are sensitive to the degree of nonlinearity and to the Euclidean dimension of the dominant growth of seismicity clouds. To validate the theoretical finding, we numerically model nonlinear pore fluid pressure diffusion and generate synthetic catalogs of seismicity. Additionally, we apply the new scaling relation to several case studies of injection-induced seismicity. The derived scaling laws describe well synthetic and real data

Autonomous decision-making against induced seismicity in deep fluid injections

The rise in the frequency of anthropogenic earthquakes due to deep fluid injections is posing serious economic, societal, and legal challenges to geo-energy and waste-disposal projects. We propose an actuarial approach to mitigate this risk, first by defining an autonomous decision-making process based on an adaptive traffic light system (ATLS) to stop risky injections, and second by quantifying a "cost of public safety" based on the probability of an injection-well being abandoned. The ATLS underlying statistical model is first confirmed to be representative of injection-induced seismicity, with examples taken from past reservoir stimulation experiments (mostly from Enhanced Geothermal Systems, EGS). Then the decision strategy is formalized: Being integrable, the model yields a closed-form ATLS solution that maps a risk-based safety standard or norm to an earthquake magnitude not to exceed during stimulation. Finally, the EGS levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is reformulated in terms of null expectation, with the cost of abandoned injection-well implemented. We find that the price increase to mitigate the increased seismic risk in populated areas can counterbalance the heat credit. However this "public safety cost" disappears if buildings are based on earthquake-resistant designs or if a more relaxed risk safety standard or norm is chosen.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, conference (International Symposium on Energy Geotechnics, 26-28 September 2018, Lausanne, Switzerland

Understanding Slow Deformation Before Dynamic Failure

Slow deformation and fracturing have been shown to be leading mechanisms towards failure, marking earthquake ruptures, flank eruption onsets and landslide episodes. The common link among these processes is that populations of microcracks interact, grow and coalesce into major fractures. We present (a) two examples of multidisciplinary field monitoring of characteristic “large scale” signs of impending deformation from different tectonic setting, i.e. the Ruinon landslide (Italy) and Stromboli volcano (Italy) (b) the kinematic features of slow stress perturbations induced by fluid overpressures and relative modelling; (c) experimental rock deformation laboratory experiments and theoretical modelling investigating slow deformation mechanisms, such stress corrosion crack growth. We propose an interdisciplinary unitary and integrated approach aimed to: (1) transfer of knowledge between specific fields, which up to now aimed at solve a particular problem; (2) quantify critical damage thresholds triggering instability onset; (3) set up early warning models for forecasting the time of rupture with application to volcanology, seismology and landslide risk prevention.Published229-2472.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle roccereserve