Contagion effects of the global financial crisis in us and European real economy sectors

This paper empirically investigates the contagion effects of the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009) from the financial sector to the real economy by examining nine sectors of US and developed European region. We provide a regional analysis by testing stock market contagion on the aggregate level and the sector level, on the global level and the domestic/regional level. Results show evidence of global contagion in US and developed European aggregate stock market indices and all US sector indices, implying the limited benefits of portfolio diversification. On the other hand, most of the European regional sectors seem to be immune to the adverse effects of the crisis. Finally, all non-financial sectors of both geographical areas seem to be unaffected by their domestic financial systems. These findings have important implications for policy makers, investors and international organizations

Global crises and contagion: Does the capitalization size matter?

© Duncker und Humblot GmbH. All rights reserved. This paper investigates the spread of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC) to different market capitalization segments across countries and regions. Specifically, it tests for capitalization-specific contagion across both crises and their phases by examining large, medium and small capitalization indices of G-20 equity markets. The analysis across stable and the two crisis periods shows the existence of a stronger large-cap transmission channel for the majority of countries. On the other hand, the contagion dynamics across the phases of the two crises do not provide a clear pattern of a specific cap size-based contagion across all markets. However, there is evidence that the Pacific region and the three cap groups of some individual markets of different regions are less severely affected. Further, all three cap groups of developed markets are mostly affected during the last phase of the ESDC, while emerging and frontier markets show a more diverse pattern of contagion across the phases of both crises. Finally, the Lehman Brothers’ collapse triggers a dramatic increase of the infection rate, while the ESDC seems to be more contagious than the GFC

Direct and Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Implied Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

We investigate the effects of a google trend synthetic index concerning corona virus, as a composite indicator of searching term and theme, on the implied volatility of thirteen major stock markets, covering Europe, Asia, USA and Australia regions by using panel data analysis along with several model specifications and robustness tests. Increased search queries for COVID-19 not only have a direct effect on implied volatility, but also have an indirect effect via stock returns highlighting a risk-aversion channel operating over pandemic conditions. We show that these direct and indirect effects are stronger in Europe relative to the rest of the world. Moreover, in a PVAR framework, a positive shock on stock returns may calm down google searching about COVID-19 in Europe. Our findings suggest that google based anxiety about COVID-19 contagion effects leads to elevated risk-aversion in stock markets. Understanding the links between investors’ decision over a pandemic crisis and asset prices variability is critical for understanding the policy measures needed in markets and economies

Direct and Indirect Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Implied Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis

We investigate the effects of a google trend synthetic index concerning corona virus, as a composite indicator of searching term and theme, on the implied volatility of thirteen major stock markets, covering Europe, Asia, USA and Australia regions by using panel data analysis along with several model specifications and robustness tests. Increased search queries for COVID-19 not only have a direct effect on implied volatility, but also have an indirect effect via stock returns highlighting a risk-aversion channel operating over pandemic conditions. We show that these direct and indirect effects are stronger in Europe relative to the rest of the world. Moreover, in a PVAR framework, a positive shock on stock returns may calm down google searching about COVID-19 in Europe. Our findings suggest that google based anxiety about COVID-19 contagion effects leads to elevated risk-aversion in stock markets. Understanding the links between investors’ decision over a pandemic crisis and asset prices variability is critical for understanding the policy measures needed in markets and economies

Opportunities for international portfolio diversification in the balkans’ markets

This paper examines long and short-run relationships among three emerging Balkan stock markets (Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia), two developed European stock markets (Germany and Greece) and United States (U.S.), during the period 2000 - 2005. We apply Johansen's (1988) cointegration methodology to test the long-run relationships between these markets and Granger's (1969) causality methodology in order to capture short-run cointegration. Our findings are mixed. We provide evidence on long-run relationships between the Bulgarian and Croatian stock markets and the developed markets. On the other hand, there is no any cointegration among the developed markets and the Romanian market. Moreover, there is no cointegrating relationship among the three regional emerging markets, while short-run relationships exist only among the region. These results have crucial implications for investors regarding the benefits of international portfolio diversification

Opportunities for international portfolio diversification in the balkans’ markets

This paper examines long and short-run relationships among three emerging Balkan stock markets (Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia), two developed European stock markets (Germany and Greece) and United States (U.S.), during the period 2000 - 2005. We apply Johansen's (1988) cointegration methodology to test the long-run relationships between these markets and Granger's (1969) causality methodology in order to capture short-run cointegration. Our findings are mixed. We provide evidence on long-run relationships between the Bulgarian and Croatian stock markets and the developed markets. On the other hand, there is no any cointegration among the developed markets and the Romanian market. Moreover, there is no cointegrating relationship among the three regional emerging markets, while short-run relationships exist only among the region. These results have crucial implications for investors regarding the benefits of international portfolio diversification

Lower effectiveness of facet joint infiltration in patients with concurrent facet joint degeneration and active endplate changes

BACKGROUND CONTEXT Facet joint degeneration (FJD) and disc degeneration (DD) with associated endplate (EP) changes, specifically Modic 1 changes, might occur concurrently and therefore pose a challenge in the treatment of lower back pain (LBP). PURPOSE The aim of the present study was to investigate if the presence of active EP changes (Modic 1) would alter the effect of facet joint infiltrations (FJI) for the treatment of concurrent FJD. STUDY DESIGN Prospective cohort study, Level III. PATIENT SAMPLE 42 patients (Male:20, Female:22) with an average of 58±14 years with FJD on conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) receiving a FJI for treatment of lower back pain were included. OUTCOME MEASURES The pain score at baseline, 15 min, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month following FJI as well as the reduction of pain were analyzed. Furthermore, active EP changes on conventional MRI and increased EP metabolic activity on PET/MRI were evaluated and compared. METHODS All the patients underwent a (18F)-NaF PET/MRI, conventional MRI and FJI for symptomatic FJD. Active EP changes on conventional MRI and increased EP metabolic activity on PET/MR were analyzed for conformity. The pain score as well as the pain reduction at the above-mentioned time points were compared between patients with and without increased EP metabolic activity in PET/MRI. RESULTS The LBP reduction was significantly different between patients with (n=20) and without (n=22) active EP changes at 15 minutes (1.3±2.4 vs. 2.9±2.4, p=.03) and 1 month (0.9±2.3 vs. 2.8±2.9, p<.001) following FJI. The minimal clinically important difference for LBP reduction was reached significantly more often in the absence of active EP changes (73%) compared with patients with active EP changes (35%) 1 month following FJI (p=.03). CONCLUSIONS FJI is less effective in LBP reduction of patients with FJD and concurrent active EP changes (eg Modic 1)

Influence of the Anteromedial Portal and Transtibial Drilling Technique on Femoral Tunnel Lengths in ACL Reconstruction: Results Using an MRI-Based Model

BACKGROUND In anatomic anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction, graft placement through the anteromedial (AM) portal technique requires more horizontal drilling of the femoral tunnel as compared with the transtibial (TT) technique, which may lead to a shorter femoral tunnel and affect graft-to-bone healing. The effect of coronal and sagittal femoral tunnel obliquity angle on femoral tunnel length has not been investigated. PURPOSE To compare the length of the femoral tunnels created with the TT technique versus the AM portal technique at different coronal and sagittal obliquity angles using the native femoral ACL center as the starting point of the femoral tunnel. The authors also assessed sex-based differences in tunnel lengths. STUDY DESIGN Descriptive laboratory study. METHODS Magnetic resonance imaging scans of 95 knees with an ACL rupture (55 men, 40 women; mean age, 26 years [range, 16-45 years]) were used to create 3-dimensional models of the femur. The femoral tunnel was simulated on each model using the TT and AM portal techniques; for the latter, several coronal and sagittal obliquity angles were simulated (coronal, 30°, 45°, and 60°; sagittal, 45° and 60°), representing the 10:00, 10:30, and 11:00 clockface positions for the right knee. The length of the femoral tunnel was compared between the techniques and between male and female patients. RESULTS The mean ± SD femoral tunnel length with the TT technique was 40.0 ± 6.8 mm. A significantly shorter tunnel was created with the AM portal technique at 30° coronal/45° sagittal (35.5 ± 3.8 mm), whereas a longer tunnel was created at 60° coronal/60° sagittal (53.3 ± 5.3 mm; P < .05 for both). The femoral tunnel created with the AM portal technique at 45° coronal/45° sagittal (40.7 ± 4.8 mm) created a similar tunnel length as the TT technique. For all techniques, the femoral tunnel was significantly shorter in female patients than male patients. CONCLUSION The coronal and sagittal obliquity angles of the femoral tunnel in ACL reconstruction can significantly affect its length. The femoral tunnel created with the AM portal technique at 45° coronal/45° sagittal was similar to that created with the TT technique. CLINICAL RELEVANCE Surgeons should be aware of the femoral tunnel shortening with lower coronal obliquity angles, especially in female patients

Reverse Total Shoulder Arthroplasty in Patients Who Exceeded Their Life-Expectancy: A Retrospective Study

BACKGROUND Reverse total shoulder arthroplasty (RTSA) has become an established treatment for cuff arthropathy, severe osteoarthritis and in certain fracture cases. Due to the increasingly aging population, patients who have already exceeded their life-expectancy pose a significant challenge to the shoulder surgeon. METHODS Patients older than 83 years who received a RTSA were included. Elective cases were compared to fracture cases. Patient demographics, hospital stay length, complication rate, functional outcome, patient reported outcome scores and mortality were assessed retrospectively. RESULTS We included 110 cases, 48 in the elective group and 62 in the fracture group. The average age at time of surgery was 86.6 ± 3.5 years. Mean follow-up was 30 months. Elective cases had a significant shorter hospital stay length (P = .014). Functional outcome scores showed better results for the elective group with ASES 79 ± 12 vs 69 ± 19 (P = .07), QuickDASH 29 ± 16 vs 37 ± 21 (P = .22), subjective shoulder value 86 ± 14 vs 75 ± 19 (P = .04*) and VAS .7 ± 1.5 vs 2.1 ± 2.5 (P = .02*). There was no significant difference in ROM and mean quality-adjusted-life-years (QALY) with 3.2 ± 1.8 vs 3.5 ± 2.5 years (P = .69). The complication rate requiring surgical intervention was 2.4% in the elective and 6.5% in the fracture group. The 1-year mortality was 3 (6%) respectively 9 (15%). CONCLUSION RTSA in elderly patients can be successful with good functional outcomes. Age should not be a contraindication. Instead, the patient's activity level and quality of life should be taken into account. Elective RTSA show better functional outcome scores and lower complication rates compared to RTSA in proximal humeral fractures

Is routine magnetic resonance imaging necessary in patients with clinically diagnosed frozen shoulder? Utility of magnetic resonance imaging in frozen shoulder

BACKGROUND Shoulder magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is commonly performed in patients with frozen shoulder (FS). However, the necessity of MRI and its diagnostic value is questionable. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to clarify whether routine MRI could identify additional shoulder pathologies not previously suspected in the clinical examination and if any change in the treatment plan based on these additional MRI findings in FS patients was observed. MATERIALS AND METHODS The medical records of all patients who presented in our outpatient clinic with a diagnosis of FS from January 2017 to December 2018 were retrospectively reviewed. Patient demographics, the number of patients who received a shoulder MRI, changes in the diagnosis or identification of structural shoulder pathologies following MRI examination (if performed), as well as any alternation in the initially suggested treatment plan were recorded. RESULTS A total of 609 patients (male: 241, female: 368) diagnosed with an FS and an average age of 52 ± 10 (range: 18 to 81) years were identified. In 403 of the 609 patients (66%), a shoulder MRI was performed. An additional structural shoulder pathology was identified in 89 of 403 (22%) patients following the shoulder MRI, mostly rotator cuff tears (partial: 46/403 [11.4%], full-thickness: 30/403 [7.4%], rerupture following reconstruction: 10/403 [2.5%]) and labrum tears (3/403 [0.7%]). At minimum 2-year follow-up, 11 of 403 (2.7%) patients were treated surgically for the additional pathology identified on the MRI scan consisting of an arthroscopic rotator cuff reconstruction in 10 patients and a labrum refixation in one patient. Five of the 609 (0.8%) patients were treated for refractory FS by arthroscopic capsulotomy. CONCLUSIONS Although additional pathologies were identified in 22% of the patients, a change in treatment plan due to the MRI findings was only observed in 2.7% (37 MRIs needed to identify 1 patient with FS requiring surgery for the additional MRI findings). Therefore, routine use of shoulder MRI scans in patients with FS but without suspicion of an additional pathology may not be indicated