Dynamic CoVaR Modeling

The popular systemic risk measure CoVaR (conditional Value-at-Risk) is widely used in economics and finance. Formally, it is defined as a large quantile of one variable (e.g., losses in the financial system) conditional on some other variable (e.g., losses in a bank's shares) being in distress. In this article, we propose joint dynamic forecasting models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and CoVaR. We also introduce a two-step M-estimator for the model parameters drawing on recently proposed bivariate scoring functions for the pair (VaR, CoVaR). We prove consistency and asymptotic normality of our parameter estimator and analyze its finite-sample properties in simulations. Finally, we apply a specific subclass of our dynamic forecasting models, which we call CoCAViaR models, to log-returns of large US banks. It is shown that our CoCAViaR models generate CoVaR predictions that are superior to forecasts issued from current benchmark models

Regressions under Adverse Conditions

We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, given the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse economic scenarios, which receive increasing interest in managing macroeconomic and financial risks, among many others. In the terminology of the systemic risk literature, our method can be interpreted as a regression for the Marginal Expected Shortfall. We propose a two-step procedure to estimate the new models, show consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator, and propose feasible inference under weak conditions allowing for cross-sectional and time series applications. The accuracy of the asymptotic approximations of the two-step estimator is verified in simulations. Two empirical applications show that our regressions under adverse conditions are valuable in such diverse fields as the study of the relation between systemic risk and asset price bubbles, and dissecting macroeconomic growth vulnerabilities into individual components

Forecast Encompassing Tests for the Expected Shortfall

We introduce new forecast encompassing tests for the risk measure Expected Shortfall (ES). The ES currently receives much attention through its introduction into the Basel III Accords, which stipulate its use as the primary market risk measure for the international banking regulation. We utilize joint loss functions for the pair ES and Value at Risk to set up three ES encompassing test variants. The tests are built on misspecification robust asymptotic theory and we investigate the finite sample properties of the tests in an extensive simulation study. We use the encompassing tests to illustrate the potential of forecast combination methods for different financial assets.Comment: International Journal of Forecasting (2020+, forthcoming

Encompassing tests for value at risk and expected shortfall multi-step forecasts based on inference on the boundary

We propose forecast encompassing tests for the Expected Shortfall (ES) jointly with the Value at Risk (VaR) based on flexible link (or combination) functions. Our setup allows testing encompassing for convex forecast combinations and for link functions which preclude crossings of the combined VaR and ES forecasts. As the tests based on these link functions involve parameters which are on the boundary of the parameter space under the null hypothesis, we derive and base our tests on nonstandard asymptotic theory on the boundary. Our simulation study shows that the encompassing tests based on our new link functions outperform tests based on unrestricted linear link functions for one-step and multi-step forecasts. We further illustrate the potential of the proposed tests in a real data analysis for forecasting VaR and ES of the S&P 500 index

Osband’s principle for identification functions

Given a statistical functional of interest such as the mean or median, a (strict) identification function is zero in expectation at (and only at) the true functional value. Identification functions are key objects in forecast validation, statistical estimation and dynamic modelling. For a possibly vector-valued functional of interest, we fully characterise the class of (strict) identification functions subject to mild regularity conditions.ISSN:0932-5026ISSN:1613-979

The Efficiency Gap

Parameter estimation via M- and Z-estimation is broadly considered to be equally powerful in semiparametric models for one-dimensional functionals. This is due to the fact that, under sufficient regularity conditions, there is a one-to-one relation between the corresponding objective functions - strictly consistent loss functions and oriented strict identification functions - via integration and differentiation. When dealing with multivariate functionals such as multiple moments, quantiles, or the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall), this one-to-one relation fails due to integrability conditions: Not every identification function possesses an antiderivative. The most important implication of this failure is an efficiency gap: The most efficient Z-estimator often outperforms the most efficient M-estimator, implying that the semiparametric efficiency bound cannot be attained by the M-estimator in these cases. We show that this phenomenon arises for pairs of quantiles at different levels and for the pair (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall), where we illustrate the gap through extensive simulations