Scientists' warning on climate change and insects

Climate warming is considered to be among the most serious of anthropogenic stresses to the environment, because it not only has direct effects on biodiversity, but it also exacerbates the harmful effects of other human-mediated threats. The associated consequences are potentially severe, particularly in terms of threats to species preservation, as well as in the preservation of an array of ecosystem services provided by biodiversity. Among the most affected groups of animals are insects—central components of many ecosystems—for which climate change has pervasive effects from individuals to communities. In this contribution to the scientists' warning series, we summarize the effect of the gradual global surface temperature increase on insects, in terms of physiology, behavior, phenology, distribution, and species interactions, as well as the effect of increased frequency and duration of extreme events such as hot and cold spells, fires, droughts, and floods on these parameters. We warn that, if no action is taken to better understand and reduce the action of climate change on insects, we will drastically reduce our ability to build a sustainable future based on healthy, functional ecosystems. We discuss perspectives on relevant ways to conserve insects in the face of climate change, and we offer several key recommendations on management approaches that can be adopted, on policies that should be pursued, and on the involvement of the general public in the protection effort

A global research priority agenda to advance public health responses to fatty liver disease

Background & aims An estimated 38% of adults worldwide have non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). From individual impacts to widespread public health and economic consequences, the implications of this disease are profound. This study aimed to develop an aligned, prioritised fatty liver disease research agenda for the global health community. Methods Nine co-chairs drafted initial research priorities, subsequently reviewed by 40 core authors and debated during a three-day in-person meeting. Following a Delphi methodology, over two rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the priorities, via Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a four-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. The core group revised the draft priorities between rounds. In R2, panellists also ranked the priorities within six domains: epidemiology, models of care, treatment and care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. Results The consensus-built fatty liver disease research agenda encompasses 28 priorities. The mean percentage of ‘agree’ responses increased from 78.3 in R1 to 81.1 in R2. Five priorities received unanimous combined agreement (‘agree’ + ‘somewhat agree’); the remaining 23 priorities had >90% combined agreement. While all but one of the priorities exhibited at least a super-majority of agreement (>66.7% ‘agree’), 13 priorities had 90% combined agreement. Conclusions Adopting this multidisciplinary consensus-built research priorities agenda can deliver a step-change in addressing fatty liver disease, mitigating against its individual and societal harms and proactively altering its natural history through prevention, identification, treatment, and care. This agenda should catalyse the global health community’s efforts to advance and accelerate responses to this widespread and fast-growing public health threat. Impact and implications An estimated 38% of adults and 13% of children and adolescents worldwide have fatty liver disease, making it the most prevalent liver disease in history. Despite substantial scientific progress in the past three decades, the burden continues to grow, with an urgent need to advance understanding of how to prevent, manage, and treat the disease. Through a global consensus process, a multidisciplinary group agreed on 28 research priorities covering a broad range of themes, from disease burden, treatment, and health system responses to awareness and policy. The findings have relevance for clinical and non-clinical researchers as well as funders working on fatty liver disease and non-communicable diseases more broadly, setting out a prioritised, ranked research agenda for turning the tide on this fast-growing public health threat

Associations between herd size, rate of expansion and production, breeding policy and reproduction in spring-calving dairy herds

peer-reviewedDairy herd size is expected to increase in many European countries, given the recent policy changes within the European Union. Managing more cows may have implications for herd performance in the post-quota era. The objective of this study was to characterise spring-calving herds according to size and rate of expansion, and to determine trends in breeding policy, reproduction and production performance, which will inform industry of the likely implications of herd expansion. Performance data from milk recording herds comprising 775 795 lactations from 2555 herds for the years 2004 to 2008 inclusive were available from the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation. Herds were classified into Small (average of 37 cows), Medium (average of 54 cows) and Large (average of 87 cows) and separately into herds that were not expanding (Nil expansion), herds expanding on average by three cows per year (Slow expansion) and herds expanding on average by eight cows per year (Rapid expansion). There was no association between rate of expansion and 305-day fat and protein yield. However, 305-day milk yield decreased and milk protein and fat percentage increased with increasing rate of expansion. There were no associations between herd size and milk production except for protein and fat percentage, which increased with increasing herd size. Average parity number of the cows decreased as rate of expansion increased and tended to decrease as herd size increased. In rapidly expanding herds, cow numbers were increased by purchasing more cattle. The proportion of dairy sires relative to beef sires used in the breeding programme of expanding herds increased and there was more dairy crossbreeding, albeit at a low rate. Similarly, large herds were using more dairy sires and fewer beef sires. Expanding herds and large herds had superior reproductive performance relative to non-expanding and small herds. Animals in expanding herds calved for the first time at a younger age, had a shorter calving interval and were submitted for breeding by artificial insemination at a higher rate. The results give confidence to dairy producers likely to undergo significant expansion post-quota such that, despite managing more cows, production and reproductive performance need not decline. The management skills required to achieve these performance levels need investigation

Experimental and computational study of the influence of pre-damage patterns in unreinforced masonry crack propagation due to induced, repeated earthquakes

Induced seismicity in the north of the Netherlands has recently exposed unprepared, unreinforced masonry structures to considerable earthquake risk. While the ultimate-limit state capacity of the structures is vital to assess the individual’s risk, their behavior during more frequent, lighter earthquakes, leading to ‘lighter damage’, has shown to be strongly linked to economic losses and societal unrest. When observing the light damage caused by minor earthquakes, the existing state of the structure appears to be highly relevant for the final damage intensity and configuration: earthquakes that may have otherwise caused no apparent damage, may intensify existing damage. In particular, incipient damage due to settlements is common in the baked-clay and calcium-silicate brick masonry structures of the region.This paper details the study of full-scale laboratory walls, pre-damaged following typical (crack) patterns caused by settlements and tested with quasi-static lateral loads. The aggravation of the damage during a relevant number of load cycles is monitored using full-field digital image correlation. The damage is quantified objectively using a purposely-developed damage parameter.The tests are used (together with previous studies) to further calibrate computational finite element models, which coupled with detailed soil-structure interaction boundary conditions, are then employed to assess a larger number of structural geometries and pre-damaged configurations exposed to (repeated) induced earthquake acceleration histories.Both experimental and computational approaches show that settlement pre-damage in masonry structures increases the likelihood and the amount of further damage. This is more easily observed when some initial, yet limited damage exists and the masonry wall is exposed to moderate earthquake vibrations in the order of 30 millimeters per second