Developing the food, water, and energy nexus for food and energy scenarios with the World trade model

The food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus has gained increased attention, resulting in numerous studies on management approaches. Themes of resource use, and their subsequent scarcity and economic rents, which are within the application domain of the World Trade Model, are ripe for study, with the continuing development of forward- and backward-facing economic data. Scenarios of future food and energy demand, relating to supply chains, as well as direct and indirect resource uses, are modelled in this paper. While it is possible to generate a substantial number of economic and environmental scenarios, our focus is on the development of an overarching approach involving a range of scenarios. We intend to establish a benchmark of possibilities in the context of the debates surrounding the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) and the Green New Deal. Our approach draws heavily from the existing literature on international agreements and targets, notably that of COP21, whose application we associate with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). Relevant factor uses and scarcity rent increases are found and localized, e.g., on the optimal qualities of water, minerals, and land. A clear policy implication is that, in all scenarios, processes of energy transition, raw material use reduction, and recycling must be strengthened

Testing the SDG targets on water and sanitation using the world trade model with a waste, wastewater, and recycling framework

In this article, we employ an extended world trade model and rectangular choice of technology (WTM/RCOT) framework, which minimizes global factor costs subject to satisfying final demand and respecting region-specific factor constraints, to calculate the economic costs of achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for water and sanitation. We estimate how achieving these goals will affect factor use, trade balances, scarcity rents, and production in 19 regions of the world, drawing on an expanded database developed from the GTAP9 database, the developed model involves 64 technology columns and 74 rows of factors of production. On a theoretical level, this model contributes to the existing literature on the topic by using endogenous cost estimates that consider shifts in production and factor scarcity rents and by considering recycling and wastes within an input-output model, in which wastes can be modelled as input resources as well as waste outputs. We find that the additional factor costs of meeting the water and sanitation targets of the SDGs exceed US$100 billion annually, with a total cost of US$3.3 trillion from 2015 to 2030. These figures are similar to other recent works on the subject despite methodological differences. It also suggests that the worldwide SDG targets can be achieved with moderate costs relative to the total global GDP, especially in comparison to the high estimated cost of inaction. Predictably, in areas working toward water and sanitation SDGs (areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, regions in South Asia, etc.), factor use costs increase, but not commensurately with the growth of coverage some regions, such as areas of South America, notably have higher factor use costs along in proportion to the coverage. Indeed, Sub-Saharan Africa, which needs the highest increase in coverage, will not likely have as large increases in factor uses and would barely get scarcity rents. In general, regions with higher SDG targets will require further trade, especially additional imports of inputs such as chemicals and energy products. This trade will increase factor earnings in factor rich regions such as the European Union, Japan, and Korea. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.This work was started having support by US National Science Foundation CNH grant # 1115025 , “Impacts of Global Change Scenarios on Ecosystem Services from the World's Rivers

Restricting water withdrawals of the thermal power sector: An input-output analysis for the northeast of the United States

As water scarcity and pollution of sources become increasingly severe and widespread, competition over this resource intensifies. Unlike much of the rest of the world, thermal power plants in the US are the biggest users of water due to heavy reliance on once-through cooling technology. This cooling technology withdraws large amounts of water and discharges it back almost in its entirety but at higher temperatures. These water withdrawals are increasingly subjected to legislation intended to reduce the effects of thermal pollution. We utilize an interregional input-output model for quantifying the money costs and the shifts in the distribution of power production by state and by technology when withdrawals and discharges of fresh water are restricted. This model allows for the choice among alternative power generation technologies with different cost structures within each state. We analyze a Baseline scenario for 2010 and alternative scenarios that impose constraints on water withdrawals and inter-state power transmission. Based on an annual analysis, we conclude that this region can satisfy its electric power requirements while fully complying with legislated water restrictions at moderate cost by compensating the curtailment of output from some plants by otherwise unutilized capacities of other plants in the region. When we revisit the analysis using a monthly time step, however, sharp seasonal variations exhibit a strong impact on economic costs. In the summer months, intra-state transmission does not suffice, and regional demand cannot be met in the absence of substantial inter-state transmission. © 2018This study is based on work supported by U. S. National Science Foundation Award No. 1049181 , “A Regional Earth System Model of the Northeast Corridor: Analyzing 21st Century Climate and Environment.

Developing the food, water, and energy nexus for food and energy scenarios with the world trade model

The food, energy, and water (FEW) nexus has gained increased attention, resulting in numerous studies on management approaches. Themes of resource use, and their subsequent scarcity and economic rents, which are within the application domain of the World Trade Model, are ripe for study, with the continuing development of forward-and backward-facing economic data. Scenarios of future food and energy demand, relating to supply chains, as well as direct and indirect resource uses, are modelled in this paper. While it is possible to generate a substantial number of economic and environmental scenarios, our focus is on the development of an overarching approach involving a range of scenarios. We intend to establish a benchmark of possibilities in the context of the debates surrounding the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) and the Green New Deal. Our approach draws heavily from the existing literature on international agreements and targets, notably that of COP21, whose application we associate with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP). Relevant factor uses and scarcity rent increases are found and localized, e.g., on the optimal qualities of water, minerals, and land. A clear policy implication is that, in all scenarios, processes of energy transition, raw material use reduction, and recycling must be strengthened. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Testing the SDG targets on water and sanitation using the world trade model with a waste, wastewater, and recycling framework

In this article, we employ an extended world trade model and rectangular choice of technology (WTM/RCOT) framework, which minimizes global factor costs subject to satisfying final demand and respecting region-specific factor constraints, to calculate the economic costs of achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for water and sanitation. We estimate how achieving these goals will affect factor use, trade balances, scarcity rents, and production in 19 regions of the world, drawing on an expanded database developed from the GTAP9 database, the developed model involves 64 technology columns and 74 rows of factors of production. On a theoretical level, this model contributes to the existing literature on the topic by using endogenous cost estimates that consider shifts in production and factor scarcity rents and by considering recycling and wastes within an input-output model, in which wastes can be modelled as input resources as well as waste outputs. We find that the additional factor costs of meeting the water and sanitation targets of the SDGs exceed US$100 billion annually, with a total cost of US$3.3 trillion from 2015 to 2030. These figures are similar to other recent works on the subject despite methodological differences. It also suggests that the worldwide SDG targets can be achieved with moderate costs relative to the total global GDP, especially in comparison to the high estimated cost of inaction. Predictably, in areas working toward water and sanitation SDGs (areas such as Sub-Saharan Africa, regions in South Asia, etc.), factor use costs increase, but not commensurately with the growth of coverage—some regions, such as areas of South America, notably have higher factor use costs along in proportion to the coverage. Indeed, Sub-Saharan Africa, which needs the highest increase in coverage, will not likely have as large increases in factor uses and would barely get scarcity rents. In general, regions with higher SDG targets will require further trade, especially additional imports of inputs such as chemicals and energy products. This trade will increase factor earnings in factor rich regions such as the European Union, Japan, and Korea. © 2019 Elsevier B.V