Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of the Effective Implementation of Water Quality Improvement Programs for Citarum River, West Java, Indonesia

Pollution of rivers is a challenge for many countries. In the Citarum watershed, Indonesia, where pollution has been an emerging issue nationwide, many programs and policies have been set up. However, implementation of all the planned programs and the significance of their contributions toward water quality improvement of the Citarum River have not been analyzed. In this paper, we present original research on evaluating water quality programs planned to achieve outputs by using uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for a river. The essential inputs included: (1) key parameters, (2) priority planned programs, and (3) interrelationships between programs, parameters, and the level of successfulness of water quality control programs. The first and second inputs were prepared simultaneously using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The latter was obtained using the Delphi method to obtain the related stakeholders’ opinions. Finally, we explore Monte Carlo simulation to analyze parameter uncertainty and sensitivity contributing to the program’s effectiveness. By implementing all the water quality control programs, the results showed that cadmium, BOD, and fecal coliform were the most affected parameters. In addition, the most effective programs to improve the pollution index were domestic waste, farming, solid waste, and water resource programs. If those programs were implemented collectively, the probability of reducing the pollution index was within a range 2.01–36.22% from the base case

Preliminary Estimation On Air Pollution Load Over Bogor City Towards Development Of Clean Air Action Plan

Emission inventory (EI) data are crucial to provide source apportionment and relative strength of various air pollutant sources in a city. The process of EI compilation can be either bottom-up or top-down, which depends on data availability and other resources. For a city like Bogor, known as a buffer zone of the capital of the Republic of Indonesia, these EI data are now available only for greenhouse gases (GHGs) but not for the air pollutants. Therefore, a top-down EI was designed and implemented for the city in the base year of 2016. Note that the sources of activity data were compiled from the previously arranged GHGs EI database as well as some other data gathered from the local authority. We adopted the EI framework of the Atmospheric Brown Cloud Emission Inventory Manual spreadsheet for the compilation. We included SO2, CO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, NMVOC, and PM components (black carbon and organic carbon). Point sources, area sources, as well as mobile sources, were considered in the emission estimation. The latter species were included as they are known as strong short-lived climate-forcing pollutants (SLCPs). On-road transport contributed significantly to SO2, NMVOC, and PM2.5, with a portion of 60-86% of the total emission. Industrial combustion sources dominated the shares to the total emissions of NOx (91%) and CO (92%). Based on this baseline information, we then proposed the source wise clean air action plan for the city in order to reduce the emission. A more accurate and up to date EI database should be done through a survey to get local representative activity data and to be compiled on a regular basis