Phase II randomised discontinuation trial of brivanib in patients with advanced solid tumours

Background: Brivanib is a selective inhibitor of vascular endothelial growth factor and fibroblast growth factor (FGF) signalling. We performed a phase II randomised discontinuation trial of brivanib in 7 tumour types (soft-tissue sarcomas [STS], ovarian cancer, breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, non-small-cell lung cancer [NSCLC], gastric/esophageal cancer and transitional cell carcinoma [TCC]). Patients and methods: During a 12-week open-label lead-in period, patients received brivanib 800 mg daily and were evaluated for FGF2 status by immunohistochemistry. Patients with stable disease at week 12 were randomised to brivanib or placebo. A study steering committee evaluated week 12 response to determine if enrolment in a tumour type would continue. The primary objective was progression-free survival (PFS) for brivanib versus placebo in patients with FGF2-positive tumours. Results: A total of 595 patients were treated, and stable disease was observed at the week 12 randomisation point in all tumour types. Closure decisions were made for breast cancer, pancreatic cancer, NSCLC, gastric cancer and TCC. Criteria for expansion were met for STS and ovarian cancer. In 53 randomised patients with STS and FGF2-positive tumours, the median PFS was 2.8 months for brivanib and 1.4 months for placebo (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.58, p = 0.08). For all randomised patients with sarcomas, the median PFS was 2.8 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–4.0) for those treated with brivanib compared with 1.4 months (95% CI: 1.3–1.6) for placebo (HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.38–1.07; p = 0.09). In the 36 randomised patients with ovarian cancer and FGF2-positive tumours, the median PFS was 4.0 (95% CI: 2.6–4.2) months for brivanib and 2.0 months (95% CI: 1.2–2.7) for placebo (HR: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.26–1.22). For all randomised patients with ovarian cancer, the median PFS in those randomised to brivanib was 4.0 months (95% CI: 2.6–4.2) and was 2.0 months (95% CI: 1.2–2.7) in those randomised to placebo (HR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.25–1.17; p = 0.11). Conclusion: Brivanib demonstrated activity in STS and ovarian cancer with an acceptable safety profile. FGF2 expression, as defined in the protocol, is not a predictive biomarker of the efficacy of brivanib

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public

A C6orf10/LOC101929163 locus is associated with age of onset in C9orf72 carriers

The G4C2-repeat expansion in C9orf72 is the most common known cause of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and frontotemporal dementia. The high phenotypic heterogeneity of C9orf72 patients includes a wide range in age of onset, modifiers of which are largely unknown. Age of onset could be influenced by environmental and genetic factors both of which may trigger DNA methylation changes at CpG sites. We tested the hypothesis that age of onset in C9orf72 patients is associated with some common single nucleotide polymorphisms causing a gain or loss of CpG sites and thus resulting in DNA methylation alterations. Combined analyses of epigenetic and genetic data have the advantage of detecting functional variants with reduced likelihood of false negative results due to excessive correction for multiple testing in genome-wide association studies. First, we estimated the association between age of onset in C9orf72 patients (n = 46) and the DNA methylation levels at all 7603 CpG sites available on the 450 k BeadChip that are mapped to common single nucleotide polymorphisms. This was followed by a genetic association study of the discovery (n = 144) and replication (n = 187) C9orf72 cohorts. We found that age of onset was reproducibly associated with polymorphisms within a 124.7 kb linkage disequilibrium

Genome-wide analysis of genetic loci associated with Alzheimer disease

Context: Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have recently identified CLU, PICALM, and CR1 as novel genes for late-onset Alzheimer disease (AD). Objectives: To identify and strengthen additional loci associated with AD and confirm these in an independent sample and to examine the contribution of recently identified genes to AD risk prediction in a 3-stage analysis of new and previously published GWAS on more than 35 000 persons (8371 AD cases). Design, Setting, and Participants: In stage 1, we identified strong genetic associations (P<10-3) in a sample of 3006 AD cases and 14 642 controls by combining new data from the population-based Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium (1367 AD cases [973 incident]) with previously reported results from the Translational Genomics Research Institute and the Mayo AD GWAS. We identified 2708 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with P<10-3. In stage 2, we pooled results for these SNPs with the European AD Initiative (2032 cases and 5328 controls) to identify 38 SNPs (10 loci) with P<10-5. In stage 3, we combined data for these 10 loci with data from the Genetic and Environmental Risk in AD consortium (3333 cases and 6995 controls) to identify 4 SNPs with P<1.7 × 10-8. These 4 SNPs were replicated in an independent Spanish sample (1140 AD cases and 1209 controls). Genome-wide association analyses were completed in 2007-2008 and the meta-analyses and replication in 2009. Main Outcome Measure: Presence of Alzheimer disease. Results: Two loci were identified to have genome-wide significance for the first time: rs744373 near BIN1 (odds ratio [OR],1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.06-1.21 per copy of the minor allele; P=1.59×10-11) and rs597668 near EXOC3L2/BLOC1S3/ MARK4 (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29; P=6.45×10-9). Associations of these 2 loci plus the previously identified loci CLU and PICALM with AD were confirmed in the Spanish sample (P<.05). However, although CLU and PICALM were confirmed to be associated with AD in this independent sample, they did not improve the ability of a model that included age, sex, and APOE to predict incident AD (improvement in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve from 0.847 to 0.849 in the Rotterdam Study and 0.702 to 0.705 in the Cardiovascular Health Study). Conclusions: Two genetic loci for AD were found for the first time to reach genome-wide statistical significance. These findings were replicated in an independent population. Two recently reported associations were also confirmed. These loci did not improve AD risk prediction. While not clinically useful, they may implicate biological pathways useful for future research

Mendelian randomization implies no direct causal association between leukocyte telomere length and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

We employed Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate the causal relationship between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) with summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (n = ~ 38,000 for LTL and ~ 81,000 for ALS in the European population; n = ~ 23,000 for LTL and ~ 4,100 for ALS in the Asian population). We further evaluated mediation roles of lipids in the pathway from LTL to ALS. The odds ratio per standard deviation decrease of LTL on ALS was 1.10 (95% CI 0.93–1.31, p = 0.274) in the European population and 0.75 (95% CI 0.53–1.07, p = 0.116) in the Asian population. This null association was also detected between LTL and frontotemporal dementia in the European population. However, we found that an indirect effect of LTL on ALS might be mediated by low density lipoprotein (LDL) or total cholesterol (TC) in the European population