The Inefficient Use of Macroeconomic Information in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Emerging Markets

This paper presents empirical evidence that security analysts do not efficiently use publicly available macroeconomic information in their earnings forecasts for emerging market stocks. Analysts completely ignore forecasts on political stability, while these provide valuable information for firm-level earnings growth. Analysts do incorporate output growth forecasts, but these actually bear no relevant information for firm-level earnings growth. Inflation forecasts are taken into account correctly. In addition, the information environment appears to be crucially important in emerging markets, as we find evidence that analysts handle macroeconomic information in a better way for more transparent firms

A Recommitment Strategy for Long Term Private Equity Fund Investors

This paper develops a reinvestment strategy for private equity which aims to keep its portfolio weight equal to a desired strategic allocation, while taking into account the illiquid nature of private equity. Historical simulations (1980-2005) show that our dynamic strategy is capable of maintaining a stable investment level that is close to the target. This does not only hold for unrestricted portfolios, but also for investments limited to buyout or venture capital, a specific region, or management experience. This finding is of great importance for investors, because private equity funds have a finite lifetime and uncertain cash flows

The Success Of Stock Selection Strategies In Emerging Markets: Is It Risk Or Behavioral Bias?

We examine competing explanations, based on risk and behavioral models, for the profitability of stock selection strategies in emerging markets. We document that both emerging market risk and global risk factors cannot account for the significant excess returns of selection strategies based on value, momentum and earnings revisions indicators. The findings for value and momentum strategies are consistent with the evidence from developed markets supporting behavioral explanations. In addition, for value stocks, the most important behavioral bias appears to be related to underestimation of long-term growth prospects, as indicated by overly pessimistic analysts' earnings forecasts and above average earnings revisions for longer postformation horizons and by quite rapidly improving earnings growth expectations. Furthermore, we find that overreaction effects play a limited role for the earnings revisions strategy, as there is no clear return reversal up until five years after portfolio formation, setting this strategy apart from momentum strategies

The nearly Newtonian regime in Non-Linear Theories of Gravity

The present paper reconsiders the Newtonian limit of models of modified gravity including higher order terms in the scalar curvature in the gravitational action. This was studied using the Palatini variational principle in [Meng X. and Wang P.: Gen. Rel. Grav. {\bf 36}, 1947 (2004)] and [Dom\'inguez A. E. and Barraco D. E.: Phys. Rev. D {\bf 70}, 043505 (2004)] with contradicting results. Here a different approach is used, and problems in the previous attempts are pointed out. It is shown that models with negative powers of the scalar curvature, like the ones used to explain the present accelerated expansion, as well as their generalization which include positive powers, can give the correct Newtonian limit, as long as the coefficients of these powers are reasonably small. Some consequences of the performed analysis seem to raise doubts for the way the Newtonian limit was derived in the purely metric approach of fourth order gravity [Dick R.: Gen. Rel. Grav. {\bf 36}, 217 (2004)]. Finally, we comment on a recent paper [Olmo G. J.: Phys. Rev. D {\bf 72}, 083505 (2005)] in which the problem of the Newtonian limit of both the purely metric and the Palatini formalism is discussed, using the equivalent Brans--Dicke theory, and with which our results partly disagree.Comment: typos corrected, replaced to match published versio

The Economic Value of Fundamental and Technical Information in Emerging Currency Markets

We measure the economic value of information derived from macroeconomic variables and from technical trading rules for emerging markets currency investments. Our analysis is based on a sample of 21 emerging markets with a floating exchange rate regime over the period 1997-2007 and explicitly accounts for trading restrictions on foreign capital movements by using non-deliverable forward data. We document that both types of information can be exploited to implement profitable trading strategies. In line with evidence from surveys of foreign exchange professionals concerning the use of fundamental and technical analysis, we find that combining the two types of information improves the risk-adjusted performance of the investment strategies

Tuberculosis Drug Resistance and HIV Infection, the Netherlands

In the Netherlands during 1993–2001, multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among newly diagnosed patients was more frequent in those with HIV coinfection (5/308, 1.6%) than in those with no HIV infection (39/646, 0.6%; adjusted odds ratio 3.43, p = 0.015). Four of the 5 patients coinfected with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV were foreign-born. DNA fingerprint analysis suggested that transmission had occurred outside the Netherlands

Genomic evidence for distinct carbon substrate preferences and ecological niches of Bathyarchaeota in estuarine sediments

Investigations of the biogeochemical roles of benthic Archaea in marine sediments are hampered by the scarcity of cultured representatives. In order to determine their metabolic capacity, we reconstructed the genomic content of four widespread uncultured benthic Archaea recovered from estuary sediments at 48% to 95% completeness. Four genomic bins were found to belong to different subgroups of the former Miscellaneous Crenarcheota Group (MCG) now called Bathyarchaeota: MCG-6, MCG-1, MCG-7/17 and MCG-15. Metabolic predictions based on gene content of the different genome bins indicate that subgroup 6 has the ability to hydrolyse extracellular plant-derived carbohydrates, and that all four subgroups can degrade detrital proteins. Genes encoding enzymes involved in acetate production as well as in the reductive acetyl-CoA pathway were detected in all four genomes inferring that these Archaea are organo-heterotrophic and autotrophic acetogens. Genes involved in nitrite reduction were detected in all Bathyarchaeota subgroups and indicate a potential for dissimilatory nitrite reduction to ammonium. Comparing the genome content of the different Bathyarchaeota subgroups indicated preferences for distinct types of carbohydrate substrates and implicitly, for different niches within the sedimentary environment

Tuberculosis Acquired Outside of Households, Rural Vietnam

Using population-based data from rural Vietnam, we assessed tuberculosis (TB) transmission within and outside of households. Eighty-three percent of persons with recent household TB were infected by different strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis than were their household members. This result argues against the effectiveness of active TB case finding among household members

Familial hemiplegic migraine and episodic ataxia type-2 are caused by mutations in the Ca2+ channel gene CACNL1A4

Genes for familial hemiplegic migraine (FHM) and episodic ataxia type-2 (EA-2) have been mapped to chromosome 19p13. We characterized a brain- specific P/Q-type Ca2+ channel α1-subunit gene, CACNLIA4, covering 300 kb with 47 exons. Sequencing of all exons and their surroundings revealed polymorphic variations, including a (CA)(n)-repeat (D19S1150), a (CAG)(n)- repeat in the 3'-UTR, and different types of deleterious mutations in FHM and EA-2. In FHM, we found four different missense mutations in conserved functional domains. One mutation has occurred on two different haplotypes in unrelated FHM families. In EA-2, we found two mutations disrupting the reading frame. Thus, FHM and EA-2 can be considered as allelic channelopathies. A similar etiology may be involved in common types of migraine