Bank lending to the production sector: credit crunch or extra-credit?

This paper provides empirical evidence to support the theory that, in Italy, over the course of the past two years, even though a considerable slowdown in bank lending has been recorded, there has not been a credit crunch. After a first section dedicated to a descriptive analysis of the data, the paper presents an econometric estimation of the production sector’s demand for bank loans. An Error Correction Model (ECM) is used – estimated for the pre-crisis period (1998.Q2 – 2007.Q2) and applied both with the one and two step procedure – which considers lending as a function of the added value of the private sector, of the gross operating margin to nominal added value ratio (a proxy for self-financing) and of the real interest rate applied to loans. To test the robustness of the results obtained in the first specification of the model, we remove the assumption of weak exogeneity of the independent variables of the single equation model and construct a multivariate multi-equation model (VECM). All of the different approaches and methods adopted provided similar results: as expected, the demand for credit increases as real added value increases and decreases as the cost of lending and self-financing increase. The dynamic out-of-sample forecast of the model, relating to the two-year period of economic and financial crisis (2007.Q3 – 2009.Q2), shows that the actual loan stock remained well above the “theoretical” level forecasted on the basis of the functional relationships estimated before the crisis. This delta (which can be defined as “extra-credit”) is interpreted as the outcome of a rightward shift of the credit supply curve, rather than a leftward shift as would have happened in a credit crunch scenario.credit crunch, Italian banks, bank lending, production sector, loan demand, error correction model, cointegration

Fractional Spectral Moments for Digital Simulation of Multivariate Wind Velocity Fields

In this paper, a method for the digital simulation of wind velocity fields by Fractional Spectral Moment function is proposed. It is shown that by constructing a digital filter whose coefficients are the fractional spectral moments, it is possible to simulate samples of the target process as superposition of Riesz fractional derivatives of a Gaussian white noise processes. The key of this simulation technique is the generalized Taylor expansion proposed by the authors. The method is extended to multivariate processes and practical issues on the implementation of the method are reported.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure

Efficacy of Prucalopride in bowel cleansing before colonoscopy. Results of a pilot study

Colonoscopy is a crucial diagnostic instrument for colorectal cancer screening and an adequate bowel preparation is definitely decisive for the success of the procedure. Especially in elderly patients, bowel cleansing is considered a big issue, because it is often poorly tolerated for many reasons (like inability to swallow large volume of liquids or unlikable taste); this can cause a suboptimal preparation that may lead to miss a neoplastic lesion. There is relatively little data about how to improve preparation tolerability. The purpose of our pilot study was to analyze the effect of prucalopride (Resolor®), a highly selective serotonin 5HT4 receptor agonist used for chronic constipation for its ability to stimulate gastrointestinal peristalsis, undertaken the day before colonoscopy, followed by half volume of polyethylene glycol solution. We found that this can be a good and safe method to achieve an adequate and better-tolerated colon cleansing

Mapping sustainable development in a capability perspective

The importance of the notion of sustainable development has been advocated, among others, by Amartya Sen. In Sen’s view it is necessary to depart from the general strategy of defining sustainable development only in terms of fulfilment of needs and to use the broader perspective of enhancing human freedoms on a sustainable basis. The ultimate goal of this paper is to outline a possible operative map of sustainable development as intended in the capability approach. Our proposed operative outline concentrates on the role of instrumental freedoms and institutions, and it is based on the traditional themes – economic, environmental and social – of sustainability. For each considered theme we select a set of variables and frame them in the driving forces, response and state variables framework. State variables represent constitutive freedoms, the achieved functionings chosen from the capability set. Their variations are produced by driving forces variables. The latter are, in turn, influenced by response variables as triggered by institutional efficiency and effectiveness, upheld by instrumental freedoms. We eventually map each set of variables in order to point out how instrumental freedoms and institutions influence sustainable human development.capabilities, institutions, instrumental freedoms, sustainable development

Intergenerational family ties and the diffusion of cohabitation in Italy

Cohabitation has been spreading in the population during the last thirty years, and this is one of the most striking aspects of wider social changes that have taken place throughout the industrialized world. However, this change did not take place uniformly across Europe. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the current debate around the compatibility of cohabitation experiences with the Italian cultural context. Using an individual-level diffusion approach we obtain results that are consistent with the crucial role that family ties play in the choice of cohabitation in place of (or before) marriage.cohabitation, diffusion, family ties, first union, Italy

The impact of health behaviors and life quality on gender differences in mortality

Since gender-specific mortality differences are known a great deal of research has been conducted on this subject. The resulting hypotheses for explaining male excess mortality can be sub-divided into two basic categories: the biological approach (focusing on biological and genetic factors) and the non-biological approach (focusing on behavioral and environmental factors). It has been proven impossible to explain the observed trends in mortality differences between women and men by relying solely on one of the two groups of theories. Recent studies indicate that the majority of the female survival advantage can be attributed to gender behaviors while the impact of biological factors seems to be limited to 1-2 years in life expectancy at birth. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of gender-specific health behaviors and gender differences in life quality using micro level data for Western Germany.Germany, life styles, mortality, sex differentials

Epidemics of Liquidity Shortages in Interbank Markets

Financial contagion from liquidity shocks has being recently ascribed as a prominent driver of systemic risk in interbank lending markets. Building on standard compartment models used in epidemics, in this work we develop an EDB (Exposed-Distressed-Bankrupted) model for the dynamics of liquidity shocks reverberation between banks, and validate it on electronic market for interbank deposits data. We show that the interbank network was highly susceptible to liquidity contagion at the beginning of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis, and that the subsequent micro-prudential and liquidity hoarding policies adopted by banks increased the network resilience to systemic risk---yet with the undesired side effect of drying out liquidity from the market. We finally show that the individual riskiness of a bank is better captured by its network centrality than by its participation to the market, along with the currently debated concept of "too interconnected to fail"

Environmental Audit improvements in industrial systems through FRAM

Environmental risk management requires specific methodologies to focus audit activities on the most critical elements of production systems. Limited resources require a clear motivation to put attention on specific technological, human, organizational components, and often should address the monitor of interactions among these elements. Recent research in environmental risk looks at methods to deal with complexity as interesting tools to reduce real impacts on pollution and consumption. In this paper, we provide evidence of the advantage in using the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), not only to identify the criticalities of a complex production system but to provide a methodology to continuously improve the audit activities in parallel with the introduction of technique to reduce environmental risk. The case study presents the evolution of environmental audit in a sinter plant, proving the need for a review of the criticality list and the successful application of FRAM to refocus the control activities