The producer service sector in Italy: Long-term growth and its local determinants

This paper analyses the local determinants of producer service growth in Italy, focusing on agglomeration economies, and taking into account the particular features of this sector with respect to manufacturing. Using an OECD classification, we estimate a dynamic specification allowing for transitory dynamics around the long-run employment path derived from a model in which both demand and supply factors are considered. Compared with the prevailing modelling approach, the spatial scope of externalities is extended to include possible interactions across different urban areas. Our main findings are the following. Long-run employment growth is positively affected by Marshall-Arrow-Romer externalities, with a minor role played by urbanization externalities, a result similar to that obtained by more recent research on the Italian manufacturing sector and its industrial districts. Among the remaining supply factors, human capital exerts a positive influence on the long-run employment level in producer services industry; among demand factors, the size of the local market appears to be important, given the still incomplete tradability of service output. Significant interactions across urban areas are shown to occur; in particular, positive knowledge externalities on local productivity appear to be induced by location in urban areas contiguous to cities specializing in producer services.agglomeration economies, human capital, producer services

On vector autoregressive modeling in space and time

Despite the fact that it provides a potentially useful analytical tool, allowing for the joint modeling of dynamic interdependencies within a group of connected areas, until lately the VAR approach had received little attention in regional science and spatial economic analysis. This paper aims to contribute in this field by dealing with the issues of parameter identification and estimation and of structural impulse response analysis. In particular, there is a discussion of the adaptation of the recursive identification scheme (which represents one of the more common approaches in the time series VAR literature) to a space-time environment. Parameter estimation is subsequently based on the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method, a standard approach in structural VAR analysis. As a convenient tool to summarize the information conveyed by regional dynamic multipliers with a specific emphasis on the scope of spatial spillover effects, a synthetic space-time impulse response function (STIR) is introduced, portraying average effects as a function of displacement in time and space. Asymptotic confidence bands for the STIR estimates are also derived from bootstrap estimates of the standard errors. Finally, to provide a basic illustration of the methodology, the paper presents an application of a simple bivariate fiscal model fitted to data for Italian NUTS 2 regions.structural VAR model, spatial econometrics, identification, space-time impulse response analysis

Foreign trade, home linkages and the spatial transmission of economic fluctuations in Italy

During the recent global recession both the export-oriented northern Italian regions and those in the far less open South experienced a sharp decline in economic activity. One of the possible explanations is the existence of strong domestic linkages propagating foreign demand shocks from North to South. To assess the scope of the spatial transmission of global and local disturbances across Italian regions, in this paper we specify and estimate a bivariate structural spatial VAR model featuring GDP and foreign exports as endogenous variables. A standard gravity equation approach is implemented to model unobserved domestic regional trade flows, while regional sales on foreign markets are related to global trade fluctuations and local shocks to competitiveness, broken down into a national and an idiosyncratic component. In line with expectations, strong domestic linkages are uncovered on the basis of model estimation results. The latter show that even less export-oriented Italian regions, although broadly unaffected on impact, may eventually experience a sharp output decline following a fall in global trade of the size observed in the recent recession.panel VAR model, trade linkages, spatial econometrics

Dynamic macroeconomic effects of public capital: evidence from regional Italian data

This paper assesses the effects of public capital in Italy on the main macroeconomic aggregates: GDP, private capital and labour. A cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model, in line with recent advancements in the field, allows us to take into account the complex nexus of direct and indirect links between the variables. We find a persistent increase in GDP in response to a positive shock to public capital; this result is mainly attributable to a strong stimulus exerted by public infrastructures on private capital (crowding in). The positive effects of public capital are quite pervasive across Italy, albeit to differing extents. In particular, a higher elasticity of GDP to public capital is estimated for the South, whereas marginal productivity turns out to be higher in the Centre-North. This suggests that public capital has a lower economic return in the South, bearing out the existence of a potential conflict between equity and efficiency goals. Finally, we indirectly document the existence of positive spillover effects at the regional level, allowing individual regions to benefit from the endowment of public capital in the rest of the country.public capital, crowding in effects, Italian regional divides, VAR models

Mapping local productivity advantages in Italy: industrial districts, cities or both?

We compare the magnitude of local productivity advantages associated with two different spatial concentration patterns in Italy – urban areas and industrial districts. The former have high population density and host a wide range of economic activities, while the latter are marked by a high concentration of small firms producing relatively homogenous goods. Using data from a large sample of Italian manufacturing firms observed over the 1995-2006 period, we detect local productivity advantages for both urban areas and industrial districts. However, firms located in urban areas reap a larger productivity premium than those operating within districts. The advantages of industrial districts have declined over time; those of urban areas have remained stable. Differences in the composition of firm employees between white- and blue-collars explain a small fraction of the urban productivity premium. The quantile regressions show how more productive firms gain larger benefits by locating in urban areas. Our analysis raises the question of whether Italian industrial districts are less fit than urban areas to prosper in a world characterized by advancing globalization and the growing use of ICT.urban areas, industrial districts, agglomeration economies, productivity, white- and blue-collars, Italian economy

MAPPING LOCAL PRODUCTIVITY ADVANTAGES IN ITALY: INDUSTRIAL DISTRICTS, CITIES OR BOTH?

In this paper we compare the magnitude of local productivity advantages associated to two different spatial concentration patterns in Italy, i.e. urban areas (UA) and industrial districts (ID). UA typically display a huge concentration of population and host a wide range of economic activities, while ID are located outside UA and exhibit a strong concentration of small firms producing relatively homogenous goods. We use a very large sample of Italian manufacturing firms observed over the 1995-2006 period and resort to a wide set of econometric techniques in order to test the robustness of main empirical findings. We detect local productivity advantages for both UA and ID. However, firms located in UA attain a larger Total Factor Productivity (TFP) premium than those operating within ID. Besides, it turns out that the advantages of ID have declined over time, while those of UA remained stable. Differences in the white-blue collars composition of the local labor force appear to explain only a minor fraction of the estimated spatial TFP differentials. Production workers (blue collars) turn out to be more productive in ID, while non-production workers (white collars) are more efficiently employed in UA. By analyzing the quantiles of the sample TFP distribution, we document how higher average TFP levels within UA do not seem to be mainly driven by a selection effect pushing less efficient firms out of the market. Rather, a firm sorting effect appears to stand out, suggesting that more productive firms gain strong benefits from locating in UA. On the whole, our analysis raises the question whether Italian ID are less fit than UA to prosper in a changing world, characterized by increased globalization and by the growing use of information technologies.

On the sub-optimality cost of immediate annuitization in DC pension funds

We consider the position of a member of a defined contribution (DC) pension scheme having the possibility of taking programmed withdrawals at retirement. According to this option, she can defer annuitization of her fund to a propitious future time, that can be found to be optimal according to some criteria. This option, that adds remarkable flexibility in the choice of pension benefits, is not available in many countries, where immediate annuitization is compulsory at retirement. In this paper, we address and try to answer the questions: "Is immediate annuitization optimal? If it is not, what is the cost to be paid by the retiree obliged to annuitize at retirement?". In order to do this, we consider the model by [7] and extend it in two different ways. In the first extension, we prove a theorem that provides necessary and sufficient conditions for immediate annuitization being always optimal. The – not surprising – result is that compulsory immediate annuitization turns out to be sub-optimal. We then quantify the extent of sub-optimality, by defining the sub-optimality cost as the loss of expected present value of consumption from retirement to death and measuring it in many typical situations. We find that it varies in relative terms between 6% and 40%, depending on the risk aversion. In the second extension, we make extensive numerical investigations of the model and seek the optimal annuitization time. We find that the optimal annuitization time depends on personal factors such as the retiree's risk aversion and her subjective perception of remaining lifetime. It also depends on the financial market, via the Sharpe ratio of the risky asset. Optimal annuitization should occur a few years after retirement with high risk aversion, low Sharpe ratio and/or short remaining lifetime, and many years after retirement with low risk aversion, high Sharpe ratio and/or long remaining lifetime. This paper supports the availability of programmed withdrawals as an option to retirees of DC pension schemes, by giving an idea about the extent of loss in wealth suffered by a retiree who cannot choose programmed withdrawals, but is obliged to annuitize immediately on retirement.Defined contribution pension scheme; decumulation phase; optimal annuitization time; cost of sub-optimality

Explaining labor productivity differentials on Italian regions

Labor productivity convergence is a key factor in the catching up process of less developed regions. For the regional economies as a whole labor productivity differentials can be traced back to three distinct determinants: - composition effects due to the peculiar structure of the regional economy; a lower than average productivity level could, for instance, be due to the fact that a greater share or the regional labor force is employed in sectors that are denoted by lower productivity at the aggregate level; - different regional endowments, within each given industry, of physical and human capital per worker; - differing levels of total factor productivity (TFP). The study aims at explaining substantial and persistent regional differentials in labor productivity in Italy providing: 1. an assessment of the role played by the three factors above outlined in the variuos regions; 2. an empirical evaluation of the role played by some of the relevant factors suggested in the related literature (e.g., public and social capital, R&D expenditure, international openness, financial markets development, agglomeration and diversification economies, geographic factors), in explaining regional TFP differentials. The empirical analysis makes use of a particularly rich data set including annual regional accounts and capital stock data for 17 industries covering the period 1970-1994. Estimates of human capital broken down by region and industry are produced by the authors pooling information from the Labor force survey and Bank of Italy’s Survey of households income and wealth. The analysis of structural composition effects is carried out by means of the shift-share technique proposed by Esteban (2000), while a cointegrated panel model is used to estimate total factor productivity by region and sector. In an attempt to assess the relevance of spatial externalities in explaining regional TFP levels the final regression analysis makes use of spatial econometric techniques.

Agglomeration within and between regions: Two econometric based indicators

We propose two indexes to measure the agglomeration forces acting within and between different regions. Unlike the existing measures of agglomeration, our model-based indexes allow for simultaneous treatment of both aspects. Local plant diffusion in a given industry is modelled as a spatial error components process (SEC). Maximum likelihood inference on model parameters is dealt with, including the problem of data censoring. The statistical properties of standard agglomeration indexes in the data environment provided by our SEC model are then treated. Finally, our methodology is applied to Italian census data for both manufacturing and service industries.agglomeration, spatial autocorrelation, spatial error components model

High quality exports and consumers’ trust: a development perspective

We analyze the impact of the effectiveness of internal regulation for the development of internal and export markets for credence goods, particularly for a developing country which is an exporter (or a potential exporter). In the model, since goods of actual different quality can be sold as high quality goods, expected quality is a function of consumers’ beliefs about the effectiveness of regulation. Foreign consumers, who cannot observe foreign regulation as closely as domestic ones, may partly base their expectations on the level of development of the exporting country. Low effectiveness, negative stereotype and low consumers’ trust may cause a failure in the market for high quality, and there may be a trap of underdevelopment and no high quality exports. The main policy implications are that increasing the effectiveness of regulation improves export prospects; standard setting and enforcement by external actors, such as supermarkets, or NGOs in the case of certain niche markets, is likely to be beneficial