Chapter 457. Belief function theory based decision support methods: Application to torrent protection work effectiveness and reliability assessment

International audienceCivil engineering protection works mitigate natural risks in mountains, such as torrents. Analysing their effectiveness at several scales is an essential issue in the risk management. Based on expert knowledge, used methods have been developed under risky environment. However, decision is made under uncertainty because of 1) the lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena and 2) the het-erogeneity of available information and 3) the reliability of sources.In this paper, we propose to help decision-makers with advanced multicriteria decision making methods (MCDMs). Combining classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories, they make it possible decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context. COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of effectiveness assessment

L'Espagne de l'ancien régime.

"Bibliographie": v. 1, p. [285]-291; v. 2, p. [441]-451; v. 3, p. [375]-387.La société.--Les institutions.--La richesse et la civilisation.Mode of access: Internet

Decision-Aid Methods Based on Belief Function Theory with Application to Torrent Protection

International audienceIn mountainous areas, decision-makers must find the best solution to protect elements-at-torrential risk. The decision process involves several criteria and is based on imperfect information. Classical Multi-Criteria Decision-Aiding methods (MCDAs) are restricted to precise criteria evaluation for decision-making under a risky environment and suffer of rank reversal problems. To bridge these gaps, several MCDAs have been recently developed within belief function theory framework. The aims of this chapter are to introduce how these methods can be applied in practice and to introduce their general principles. To show their applicability to the real-life problem, we apply them to the Decision-Making Problem (DMP) comprising the comparison of several protective alternatives against torrential floods and selection of the most efficient one. We finally discuss the method improvements to promote their practical implementation