Adjustment in Mexico's Crop Sector to Some Policy Changes Implemented in the 1990's

This paper contains analysis of potential effects of changes in the structure of farm support resulting from policy change in Mexico undertaken over the period 1989 to 2002. The analysis is based on observed changes in the level and composition of support as measured for the PSE. This information is used together with a model of Mexico's crop sector, the PEM, to derive predictions of policy effects and their implications for adjustment. These predictions are then compared with data revealing trends in crop production, yields, farm employment and purchased input use. The paper concludes that policy changes were a significant contributory factor to crop sector adjustment, but that other factors must have been at play as well.Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

Global Trade Reforms and Income Distribution in Developing Countries

This paper examines the effects of trade and domestic agricultural policy reforms on the distribution of incomes in six developing countries: Brazil, China, India, Malawi, Mexico and South Africa. The aggregate results from a global trade model are fed into separate national models. The insights available from alternative model types are evaluated. The distributional impacts of reform are found to be complex and to vary between countries. Given that it is typically impossible to reform (or equally not reform) without hurting some households with lower incomes, the conclusion is that it makes sense to help these households with targeted policies.trade reform, liberalisation, agriculture, income distribution, poverty, general equilibrium, Financial Economics, International Relations/Trade,

MARKETING EFFICIENCY AND EQUITY: A CASE STUDY OF AN AREA'S COTTON GINNING INDUSTRY

Marketing,

TRADE AND WELFARE EFFECTS OF DAIRY PRICE SUPPORT MEASURES

Analysis with a stylised model of milk price determination shows that on a dollar for dollar basis it is theoretically possible for milk price support resulting from discriminatory pricing to be as or even more trade distorting than milk price support resulting from explicit trade intervention in dairy product markets. Numerical results suggest that this result depends mainly on the initial trading status of the country in question. However, other parameters, especially the relative elasticities of demand for fluid versus manufacturing milk also matter.Agricultural and Food Policy,

Trade Effects of Dairy Pricing Arrangements

Milk producers in virtually every OECD country, and in many non-OECD countries as well, benefit from government interventions. Indeed, government support and protection for milk producers is more widespread than for any of the other commodities for which the OECD calculates producer subsidy equivalents. The purpose of the analysis reported in this paper was to investigate the relative market effects of these two varieties of government intervention in milk pricing: 1) interventions through trade measures applied to dairy products and 2) discriminatory pricing arrangements. Which kind of policy creates 'dollar-for-dollar' the greater effects? This paper shows the answer to that question is - it depends. Neither economic theory by itself, nor economic theory combined with 'plausible' ranges of numerical values for key parameters is enough to say definitely one way or another. In some plausibly real-life situations domestic milk pricing arrangements can be, at the margin, more distorting than explicit trade measures. The key determining parameters include the usual suspects - the relative elasticities of fluid and manufacturing milk demand, as well as initial price gap between fluid and manufacturing milk provided by various measures and the proportion of domestic milk production used to manufacture tradable dairy products.International Relations/Trade,

THE CRP BALANCING ACT: TRADING OFF COSTS AND MULTIPLE ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS

The Environmental Benefits Index (EBI) ranks Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) offers by weighing program costs for enrolling land in CRP against six environmental objectives. This paper uses Monte Carlo simulations to analyze the sensitivity of CRP enrollment outcome to the specification of the EBI. Results indicate that:(a)there is no major shift in average benefits throughout the U.S. when marginal changes in the weights occur, and (b) priority area weights, whether National or State, play a role in shifting CRP away from its traditional focus on highly erodible land, and (c) there is complementarity between the enduring benefits and the wildlife objectives and substitutability between the enduring benefits and the erosion reduction objectives;Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES ON THE OFF-FARM LABOR SUPPLY OF FARM OPERATORS

In addition to farm work, most farm families have someone working in off-farm employment. The purpose of this paper is to examine if, and how, the change in the nature of government farm programs in the recent past has affected the labor allocation of farm operator households to off-farm employment activities. The ultimate goal of this research is to investigate the potential impacts of decoupled payments on farm output.Labor and Human Capital,

Adjustment in Mexico's Crop Sector to Some Policy Changes Implemented in the 1990's

This paper contains analysis of potential effects of changes in the structure of farm support resulting from policy change in Mexico undertaken over the period 1989 to 2002. The analysis is based on observed changes in the level and composition of support as measured for the PSE. This information is used together with a model of Mexico's crop sector, the PEM, to derive predictions of policy effects and their implications for adjustment. These predictions are then compared with data revealing trends in crop production, yields, farm employment and purchased input use. The paper concludes that policy changes were a significant contributory factor to crop sector adjustment, but that other factors must have been at play as well

A QUARTERLY ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODEL OF THE AMERICAN CHEESE MARKET

This paper describes a quarterly econometric forecasting model of the American cheese subsector that includes equations for cheese production, commercial sales, CCC purchases, market prices, retail prices and commercial stocks. Dynamic simulation exercises over the 16 quarters from 1976 to 1979 were used to validate the model. Results of a diary policy simulation experiment are also given