Подвижки ледников Памира в 2020 году

Every year, about ten glaciers in the Western Pamirs are in the active stage of movement. The time from the beginning of the movement of kinematic waves along the glacier to the full completion of the pulsation takes, as a rule, 1– 2 years, and in some cases lasts up to 5 years. Activity of the Pamir glaciers in 2020 is discussed in this paper, and we suppose that some pulsations are still in progress in the following years. Data from a number of automatic satellite instruments were used for the analysis, but mainly these were obtained from the International Space Station. In 2020, 10 glaciers in the basins of the Surkhob, Muksu, Seldara, Kyzylsu and Vanch rivers became more active, and in some cases surged. Similar dynamic instability of glaciers was also characteristic for the preceding four years. At present, several major surges are taking place in the Western Pamirs; the Byrs, Vali, Lenin, and Medvezhy glaciers started the active phase of their developments. Therefore, it is necessary to study them by field methods and continue permanent monitoring of them from automatic satellites and the International Space Station.Ежегодно в активной стадии подвижек на Западном Памире находятся не менее 10 ледников. Время от начала движения по леднику кинематических волн до полного завершения пульсации занимает, как правило, 1–2 года, а в отдельных случаях продолжается до 5 лет. В статье исследуется активность памирских ледников в 2020 г. и высказываются предположения о продолжении некоторых пульсаций в последующие годы. Для анализа использованы данные ряда автоматических космических аппаратов, но главным образом материалы съёмок с Международной космической станции. В 2020 г. отмечена активизация и в ряде случаев подвижки 10 ледников в бассейнах рек Сурхоб, Муксу, Сельдара, Кузылсу и Ванч; подобная динамическая нестабильность ледников характерна и для предыдущих четырёх лет. В настоящее время происходит несколько крупных подвижек. Ледники Бырс, Вали, Ленина и Медвежий вступили в активную фазу своего развития, поэтому необходимо изучать их полевыми методами и продолжать их постоянный мониторинг с автоматических космических аппаратов и МКС

Подвижка ледника Бивачного в 2012–2015 гг.

The surge of the Bivachny Glacier that occurred in 2012–2015 is analyzed with the use of photographing performed from International Space Station in 2001–2015 together with data of the satellite monitoring of 1972–2000. This surge happened in 31 years after the similar previous event of 1972–1976. Dynamics of numerous glacier branches causing activation of the lower glacier part that is so called “dead” zone (more than 7 km in length) is shown. Just before its stop the front part of the surging glacier had reached the main trunk of the Fedchenko Glacier. На основе фотосъёмки, выполненной в 2001–2015 гг. с борта Международной космической станции, и данных космического мониторинга 1972– 2000 гг. анализируется подвижка ледника Бивачный на Памире, произошедшая в 2007–2015 гг., через 31 год после подвижки этого ледника в 1972–1976 гг. Показаны динамика многочисленных ветвей ледника и взаимные влияния разных потоков, вызвавшие активизацию нижней части главного ледника – мёртвой зоны протяжённостью более 7 км. Фронт пульсации в своём движении перед остановкой достиг основного ствола ледника Федченко.

Колебания ледников Северного и Южного ледниковых полей Патагонии по данным мониторинга с Международной космической станции

Quantitative indicators of changes in 37 glaciers of the Patagonian Northern and Southern glacial fields were determined by means of decoding and analysis of photographs obtained by astronauts from the Russian segment of the International Space Station. On the basis of this information it was concluded that in 2002–2016 the glaciers of both fields of Patagonia continued to retreat. The frontal parts of the nine glaciers retained their positions, while others reduced at an average rate of several dozen up to 430 m/year. Repeated monitoring of 16 glaciers from this selection and analysis of the data obtained in 2016–2019 confirm this conclusion. The only exception was the O’Higgins Glacier, which did not change position of its frontal part for 12 years and then retreated in 2018–2019 to 1,250 m. In some cases, a gradual decrease in area of the frontal part of the glacier was accompanied by a sharp collapse of the lower zone with the formation of extensive fields of icebergs. The dynamics of the Bruggen Glacier (Pius XI) are not typical for the region under consideration: for many years this glacier has been advancing. This development cannot be explained without detailed field investigation in the area of snow and ice accumulation of the glacier. Perhaps that was due to a snow-drift transport in an extensive area of accumulation that supported the preservation of the size of the glacier tongue, and even its advance. According to our observations, the average rate of retreat of the glaciers of the Western and Eastern slopes of the Southern Ice Field significantly decreased since 2010, i.e. their degradation slowed down. At the same time, glaciers of the Northern Ice Field continued to decrease intensively.В результате анализа фотоснимков с Международной космической станции определены изменения 37 ледников Северного и Южного ледниковых полей Патагонии. В 2002–2016 гг. ледники обоих полей продолжали отступать, но их отступание с 2010 г. замедлилось, хотя некоторые ледники Северного ледникового поля продолжают интенсивно сокращаться. Лишь ледник Брюгген (Пия XI) на Южном ледниковом поле в течение многих лет наступает

Medvezhiy Glacier surge in 2011

The paper presents results of monitoring of the Medvezhiy Glacier state for the period from its surge of 2001 to the last pulsation of 2011. This monitoring is performed based on the photographing made from the Russian section of the International Space Station. Features, used for prediction of the glacier last movement, are pointed out. The earlier determined characteristic property of the Medvezhiy Glacier change from a phase of recovering to that of its fast movement has been substantiated. Mean period of the glacier pulsations, estimated from observations for the last century, is 13.5 years. A surge of the glacier left tributary is recognized

Surge of the Bivachny Glacier in 2012–2015

The surge of the Bivachny Glacier that occurred in 2012–2015 is analyzed with the use of photographing performed from International Space Station in 2001–2015 together with data of the satellite monitoring of 1972–2000. This surge happened in 31 years after the similar previous event of 1972–1976. Dynamics of numerous glacier branches causing activation of the lower glacier part that is so called “dead” zone (more than 7 km in length) is shown. Just before its stop the front part of the surging glacier had reached the main trunk of the Fedchenko Glacier

Glacier fluctuations in the Northern and Southern Patagonian Ice Fields retrieved from observations on the International Space Station

Quantitative indicators of changes in 37 glaciers of the Patagonian Northern and Southern glacial fields were determined by means of decoding and analysis of photographs obtained by astronauts from the Russian segment of the International Space Station. On the basis of this information it was concluded that in 2002–2016 the glaciers of both fields of Patagonia continued to retreat. The frontal parts of the nine glaciers retained their positions, while others reduced at an average rate of several dozen up to 430 m/year. Repeated monitoring of 16 glaciers from this selection and analysis of the data obtained in 2016–2019 confirm this conclusion. The only exception was the O’Higgins Glacier, which did not change position of its frontal part for 12 years and then retreated in 2018–2019 to 1,250 m. In some cases, a gradual decrease in area of the frontal part of the glacier was accompanied by a sharp collapse of the lower zone with the formation of extensive fields of icebergs. The dynamics of the Bruggen Glacier (Pius XI) are not typical for the region under consideration: for many years this glacier has been advancing. This development cannot be explained without detailed field investigation in the area of snow and ice accumulation of the glacier. Perhaps that was due to a snow-drift transport in an extensive area of accumulation that supported the preservation of the size of the glacier tongue, and even its advance. According to our observations, the average rate of retreat of the glaciers of the Western and Eastern slopes of the Southern Ice Field significantly decreased since 2010, i.e. their degradation slowed down. At the same time, glaciers of the Northern Ice Field continued to decrease intensively

Подвижка ледника Медвежьего в 2011 году

The paper presents results of monitoring of the Medvezhiy Glacier state for the period from its surge of 2001 to the last pulsation of 2011. This monitoring is performed based on the photographing made from the Russian section of the International Space Station. Features, used for prediction of the glacier last movement, are pointed out. The earlier determined characteristic property of the Medvezhiy Glacier change from a phase of recovering to that of its fast movement has been substantiated. Mean period of the glacier pulsations, estimated from observations for the last century, is 13.5 years. A surge of the glacier left tributary is recognized.По данным фотосъёмки с российского сегмента Международной космической станции представлены результаты мониторинга ледника Медвежьего от быстрой подвижки 2001 г. до последней пульсации 2011 г. Указаны признаки, по которым прогнозировалась последняя подвижка ледника. Подтверждена ранее установленная особенность перехода ледника Медвежьего от стадии восстановления к стадии быстрой подвижки в зимнее время года. Определён средний период пульсаций ледника Медвежьего за 100 лет в 13,5 лет. Установлено быстрое продвижение левого притока ледника Медвежьего

Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations.publishe