Management Strategy Evaluation: Allowing the Light on the Hill to Illuminate More Than One Species

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation approach that serves as a “light on the hill” (Smith, 1994) to test options for marine management, monitoring, and assessment against simulated ecosystem and fishery dynamics, including uncertainty in ecological and fishery processes and observations. MSE has become a key method to evaluate trade-offs between management objectives and to communicate with decision makers. Here we describe how and why MSE is continuing to grow from a single species approach to one relevant to multi-species and ecosystem-based management. In particular, different ecosystem modeling approaches can fit within the MSE process to meet particular natural resource management needs. We present four case studies that illustrate how MSE is expanding to include ecosystem considerations and ecosystem models as ‘operating models’ (i.e., virtual test worlds), to simulate monitoring, assessment, and harvest control rules, and to evaluate tradeoffs via performance metrics. We highlight United States case studies related to fisheries regulations and climate, which support NOAA’s policy goals related to the Ecosystem Based Fishery Roadmap and Climate Science Strategy but vary in the complexity of population, ecosystem, and assessment representation. We emphasize methods, tool development, and lessons learned that are relevant beyond the United States, and the additional benefits relative to single-species MSE approaches

Evaluating Methods of Estimating Walleye Angling Exploitation in Northern Wisconsin Lakes

Creel Surveys are used by the WDNR and GLIFWC to estimate walleye (Sander vitreus) angling exploitation rate, but are expensive and time consuming, and the assumptions of these methods have not been tested. The objectives of this thesis were to determine: (1) if angler use and success varied among hours, months, and years during 1991-2002 in northern Wisconsin lakes: (2) if creel survey efficiency could be improved by reallocating sampling effort within months to minimize bias and maximize precision of estimates of walleye angling effort, harvest, harvest rate, and exploitation rate in northern Wisconsin lakes; and (3) if estimates of exploitation rate of walleyes in Wisconsin were biased by lack of mark recognition or fin regeneration. To achieve my first objective, I examined trends in the average number of complete-trip interviews, effort per acre, numbers of walleyes harvested per angler hour, and numbers of walleyes harvested per acre among hours, seasons, and years during 1991-2002 in northern Wisconsin lakes. The average number of complete-trip interviews within days was higher on weekends than weekdays during the open-water and ice-fishing seasons, and trends within days differed between seasons. The average number of walleyes harvested per hour and trends within days were similar on weekends and weekdays and during open-water and ice-fishing seasons. Average angling effort per acre was higher on weekdays than weekends, and trends during the angling season differed between day types. The average number of walleyes harvested per hour was similar on weekends and weekdays, but trends differed between day types during the angling season. Average harvest per acre and trends during the angling season were similar on weekends and weekdays. Effort per acre, walleye harvested per hour, and walleye harvested per acre were similar between day types, and did not change significantly during 1991-2002. Angler use and success in northern Wisconsin lakes changed systematically within days and among seasons, but not among years during 1991-2002, which suggests that the walleye fishery was stable during that period in northern Wisconsin lakes. To achieve my second objective, I compared estimates of effort, harvest rate, harvest, RIC ratio, and recaptures from four reductions in sampling effort (one week per month, two weeks per month, odd numbered weeks, even numbered weeks) in each month of the angling season to estimates from full creel surveys during 1991-2002. Estimates and variances of effort, harvest rate, harvest, RIC ratio, and recaptures from the four reductions in sampling effort were significantly different than those from the full sampling effort in several months for nearly all reductions in sampling effort. I conclude that creel survey efficiency could only be improved if losses in accuracy and precision are acceptable to those who use creel survey estimates for making policy decisions. To achieve my third objective, I estimated the recapture rate, RIC ratio, of walleyes previously marked for each month during the angling year for five length categories of walleye: all lengths combined,< 12 inches, 12-15 inches, 15-20 inches, and~ 20 inches. The RIC ratio declined significantly for all length categories except for fish 12-15 inches long. I conclude that fin regeneration or increased mortality due to marking may have reduced the number of marks in the RIC ratio, and therefore may have biased estimates of walleye angling exploitation rate

Environmental drivers and trends in forage fish occupancy of the Northeast US shelf

© The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Suca, J. J., Deroba, J. J., Richardson, D. E., Ji, R., & Llopiz, J. K. Environmental drivers and trends in forage fish occupancy of the Northeast US shelf. Ices Journal of Marine Science, 78(10), (2021): 3687–3708, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab214.The Northeast US shelf ecosystem is undergoing unprecedented changes due to long-term warming trends and shifts in regional hydrography leading to changes in community composition. However, it remains uncertain how shelf occupancy by the region's dominant, offshore small pelagic fishes, also known as forage fishes, has changed throughout the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Here, we use species distribution models to estimate the change in shelf occupancy, mean weighted latitude, and mean weighted depth of six forage fishes on the Northeast US shelf, and whether those trends were linked to coincident hydrographic conditions. Our results suggest that observed shelf occupancy is increasing or unchanging for most species in both spring and fall, linked both to gear shifts and increasing bottom temperature and salinity. Exceptions include decreases to observed shelf occupancy by sand lance and decreases to Atlantic herring's inferred habitat suitability in the fall. Our work shows that changes in shelf occupancy and inferred habitat suitability have varying coherence, indicating complex mechanisms behind observed shelf occupancy for many species. Future work and management can use these results to better isolate the aspects of forage fish life histories that are important for determining their occupancy of the Northeast US shelf.Funding came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Woods Hole Sea Grant Program (NA18OAR4170104, Project number R/O-57; RJ and JKL) and a National Science Foundation Long-term Ecological Research grant for the Northeast US Shelf Ecosystem (OCE1655686; RJ and JKL). JJS was funded by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship program

Integrating Management Strategy Evaluation into fisheries management: advancing best practices for stakeholder inclusion based on an MSE for Northeast U.S. Atlantic herring

The New England Fishery Management Council used Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) to evaluate possible harvest control rules for Atlantic herring, the first MSE in the U.S. and perhaps globally to use open-invitation, public workshops for input. Stakeholder inclusion can increase both realism and likelihood of use by managers, but inclusivity is not achieved easily. Here, self-selected participants had diverse backgrounds and differing levels of interest and preparedness. We describe some challenges with directly engaging the public in MSE and offer broader insights for obtaining effective public participation during a decision-making process. Conducting an open MSE aligns well with publicly-driven management but requires clear goals and communication. Investment in effective organizers, impartial facilitators, and knowledgeable analysts can improve communication and understanding of MSE, to the betterment of fisheries management. We aim to further MSE best practices on integrating stakeholders and hope that our lessons learned on communication, engagement, and integration of MSE into an existing management arena will be useful to other practitioners.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Closing the Feedback Loop: On Stakeholder Participation in Management Strategy Evaluation

Management strategy evaluation (MSE) is a simulation-based approach to examine the efficacy of management options in achieving fishery-, ecosystem-, and socioeconomic-related objectives while integrating over system uncertainties. As a form of structured decision analysis, MSE is amenable to stakeholder involvement, which can reduce implementation barriers associated with non-transparent decision-making procedures. Based on analysis of three MSE processes (Atlantic tunas, Atlantic herring, and eastern oysters), we provide suggestions for improving stakeholder engagement in MSE. By assembling a workgroup and modeling team with diverse backgrounds, including professional facilitators, communication liaisons, and social scientists, dialogue can be improved and an atmosphere of mutual learning fostered. Communication further benefits from clearly defining roles, responsibilities, and terms of engagement for all involved; explicitly and transparently identifying goals and objectives of the MSE before modeling has begun; and, when appropriate, revisiting goals and objectives throughout the MSE process. Although MSEs are not without limitations, the participatory modeling framework, wherein stakeholders are actively engaged at each stage of MSE development, provides a useful mechanism to support fisheries management.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author