34 research outputs found
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A probabilistic model for anomaly detection in remote sensor streams
Remote sensors are becoming the standard for observing and recording ecological data in the field. Such sensors can record data at fine temporal resolutions, and they can operate under extreme conditions prohibitive to human access. Unfortunately, sensor data streams exhibit many kinds of errors ranging from corrupt communications to partial or total sensor failures. This means that the raw data stream must be cleaned before it can be used by domain scientists. In our
application environment---the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest---this data cleaning is performed manually. This thesis introduces a Dynamic Bayesian Network model for analyzing sensor observations and distinguishing sensor failures from valid data for the case of air temperature measured at a 15-minute time resolution. The model combines an accurate distribution of seasonal, long-term trends and temporally localized, short-term temperature variations with a single generalized fault model. Experiments with
historical data show that the precision and recall of the method is comparable to that of the domain expert
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Probabilistic models for quality control in environmental sensor networks
Networks of distributed, remote sensors are providing ecological scientists with a view of our environment that is unprecedented in detail. However, these networks are subject to harsh conditions, which lead to malfunctions in individual sensors and failures in network communications. This behavior manifests as corrupt or missing measurements in the data. Consequently, before the data can be used in ecological models, future experiments, or even policy decisions, it must be quality controlled (QC'd) to flag affected measurements and impute corrected values. This dissertation describes a probabilistic modeling approach for real-time automated QC that exploits the spatial and temporal correlations in the data to distinguish sensor failures from valid observations. The model adapts to a site by learning a Bayesian network structure that captures spatial relationships among sensors, and then extends this structure to a dynamic Bayesian network to incorporate temporal correlations. The final QC model contains both discrete and continuous variables, which makes inference intractable for large sensor networks. Consequently, we examine the performance of three approximate methods for inference in this probabilistic framework. Two of these algorithms represent contemporary approaches to inference in hybrid models, while the third is a greedy search-based method of our own design. We demonstrate the results of these algorithms on synthetic datasets and real environmental sensor data gathered from an ecological sensor network located in western Oregon. Our results suggest that we can improve performance over networks with less sensors that use exhaustive asynchronic inference by including additional sensors and applying approximate algorithms
A practitioner\u27s complaint and proposed direction: Munchausen syndrome by proxy, factitious disorder by proxy, and fabricated and/or induced illness in children
Learning Probabilistic Behavior Models in Real-time Strategy Games
We study the problem of learning probabilistic models of high-level strategic behavior in the real-time strategy (RTS) game StarCraft. The models are automatically learned from sets of game logs and aim to capture the common strategic states and decision points that arise in those games. Unlike most work on behavior/strategy learning and prediction in RTS games, our data-centric approach is not biased by or limited to any set of preconceived strategic concepts. Further, since our behavior model is based on the well-developed and generic paradigm of hidden Markov models, it supports a variety of uses for the design of AI players and human assistants. For example, the learned models can be used to make probabilistic predictions of a player’s future actions based on observations, to simulate possible future trajectories of a player, or to identify uncharacteristic or novel strategies in a game database. In addition, the learned qualitative structure of the model can be analyzed by humans in order to categorize common strategic elements. We demonstrate our approach by learning models from 331 expert-level games and provide both a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the learned model’s utility