Connecting the unobserved dots : a decomposition analysis of changes in earnings inequality in urban Argentina, 1980-2002

There are several possible explanations for the observed changes in inequality, the returns to education, and the gap between the wages of informal and formal salaried workers in Argentina over the period 1980-2002. Largely due to the lack of evidence for competing explanations, skill-biased technical change is the most likely explanation forthe increases in the returns to education that occurred in the 1990s. Using a semi-parametric re-weighting variance decomposition technique and data from the Permanent Household Survey, the authors show that during the same period there was an increase in the returns to unobserved skill. This finding lends support to the hypothesis that skill-biased technical change has been a main driver of increases in inequality in Argentina. The pattern of changes suggests that the growth in returns to unobserved skill may have been partly responsible for the relative deterioration of informal salaried wages during the 1990s.,Labor Markets,Access&Equity in Basic Education,Primary Education,Education For All

The Drought and Food Crisis in the Horn of Africa: Impacts and Proposed Policy Responses for Kenya

As the world begins to feel the effects of climate change, the frequency of droughts is increasing in the Horn of Africa. In Kenya, the drought and food crisis affect welfare through two main channels. The first channel is the increased mortality of livestock in drought-affected areas, which are home to 10 percent of the country’s population. The second channel is by exacerbating increases in food prices, which are largely driven by worldwide price trends. Considering these two channels, this note identifies four broad policy changes that can reduce Kenya’s future vulnerability to such shocks: (i) investment in people in the arid and semiarid lands; (ii) reform of Kenya’s maize policy; (iii) review of the East African Community grain trade policy; and (iv) formulation of a unified social protection system.climate change, drought, horn of Africa, Kenya, food crisis, famine, price shocks, maize, East African Community, social protection

Growth, inequality, and simulated poverty paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002

Although Tanzania experienced relatively rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995–2001 period, household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992 and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates over the course of the period, changes in poverty are simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that is better suited to taking into account distributional changesobserved between the two household surveys. The simulations suggest that following increases in poverty during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty, particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires sustaining high growth in rural output per capita.Public Health Promotion,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Poverty Assessment,Governance Indicators,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Recipient of the 2015 Alumni Distinguished Leadership Award

As an economist at the World Bank, Dr. Gabriel Demombynes works on issues of poverty and inequality in developing countries. He is best known for his work arguing for the greater use of the scientific method in evaluating international development programs. Together with co-author Michael A. Clemens, he published a groundbreaking critique of the Millennium Villages Project, a high-profile rural development project implemented in several communities in sub-Saharan Africa. Dr. Demombynes holds both a BS in Civil and Environmental Engineering and a BA from the Plan II Liberal Arts Honors Program at the University of Texas at Austin, as well as a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley

Students and the market for schools in Haiti

Uniquely among Latin American and Caribbean countries, Haiti has a largely non-public education system. Prior to the earthquake of January 2010, just 19 percent of primary school students were enrolled in public schools, with the remainder enrolled in a mix of religious, for-profit, and non-governmental organization-funded schools. This paper examines changes in Haitian schooling patterns in the last century and shows the country experienced tremendous growth in school attainment, driven almost entirely by growth in the private sector. Additionally, it provides evidence that the private market"works"to the extent that primary school fees are higher for schools with characteristics associated with education quality. The paper also analyzes the demand and supply determinants of school attendance and finds that household wealth is a major determinant of attendance. Given these findings, the authors conclude that in the near-term paying school fees for poor students may be an effective approach to expanding schooling access in Haiti.Education For All,Tertiary Education,Primary Education,Disability,Gender and Education

How good a map ? Putting small area estimation to the test

The authors examine the performance of small area welfare estimation. The method combines census and survey data to produce spatially disaggregated poverty and inequality estimates. To test the method, they compare predicted welfare indicators for a set of target populations with their true values. They construct target populations using actual data from a census of households in a set of rural Mexican communities. They examine estimates along three criteria: accuracy of confidence intervals, bias, and correlation with true values. The authors find that while point estimates are very stable, the precision of the estimates varies with alternative simulation methods. While the original approach of numerical gradient estimation yields standard errors that seem appropriate, some computationally less-intensive simulation procedures yield confidence intervals that are slightly too narrow. The precision of estimates is shown to diminish markedly if unobserved location effects at the village level are not well captured in underlying consumption models. With well specified models there is only slight evidence of bias, but the authors show that bias increases if underlying models fail to capture latent location effects. Correlations between estimated and true welfare at the local level are highest for mean expenditure and poverty measures and lower for inequality measures.Small Area Estimation Poverty Mapping,Rural Poverty Reduction,Science Education,Scientific Research&Science Parks,Population Policies

Producing an Improved Geographic Profile of Poverty: Methodology and Evidence from Three Developing Countries

Poverty measurement, Poverty profiles, Spatial distribution, Forecasting models, Statistical inference

World Development Report 2011 Background Case Study: Drug Trafficking and Violence in Central America and Beyond

This paper examines the relationship between narcotics trafficking and violence in Central America. The first part of the paper addresses particular questions posed for the 2011 World Development Report and examines several competing hypothesis on the drivers of crime in Central America. A key finding is that areas exposed to intense narcotics trafficking in Central America suffer from higher homicide rates. Drug trafficking has corrupted state institutions, which have been overwhelmed by the resources deployed by trafficking organizations. The second part of the paper reviews the reasons drug trafficking and antitrafficking enforcement are associated with violence in general and considers policy options

Les constitutions européennes. Parlements, conseils provinciaux et commanaux et organisation judiciaire dans les divers états de l'Europe.

Mode of access: Internet

Replication data for: Costing a Data Revolution

The lack of reliable development statistics for many poor countries has led the U.N. to call for a "data revolution" (United Nations, 2013). One fairly narrow but widespread interpretation of this revolution is for international aid donors to fund a coordinated wave of household surveys across the developing world, tracking progress on a new round of post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals. We use data from the International Household Survey Network (IHSN) to show (i) the supply of household surveys has accelerated dramatically over the past 30 years and that (ii) demand for survey data appears to be higher in democracies and more aid-dependent countries. We also show that given existing international survey programs, the cost to international aid donors of filling remaining survey gaps is manageable--on the order of $300 million per year. We argue that any aid-financed expansion of household surveys should be complemented with (a) increased access to data through open data protocols, and (b) simultaneous support for the broader statistical system, including routine administrative data systems