Development of A Method for Training Artificial Neural Networks for Intelligent Decision Support Systems

A method for training artificial neural networks for intelligent decision support systems has been developed. The method provides training not only of the synaptic weights of the artificial neural network, but also the type and parameters of the membership function, architecture and parameters of an individual network node. The architecture of artificial neural networks is trained if it is not possible to ensure the specified quality of functioning of artificial neural networks due to the training of parameters of an artificial neural network. The choice of architecture, type and parameters of the membership function takes into account the computing resources of the tool and the type and amount of information received at the input of the artificial neural network. The specified method allows the training of an individual network node and the combination of network nodes. The development of the proposed method is due to the need for training artificial neural networks for intelligent decision support systems, in order to process more information, with unambiguous decisions being made. This training method provides on average 10–18 % higher learning efficiency of artificial neural networks and does not accumulate errors during training. The specified method will allow training artificial neural networks, identifying effective measures to improve the functioning of artificial neural networks, increasing the efficiency of artificial neural networks through training the parameters and architecture of artificial neural networks. The method will allow reducing the use of computing resources of decision support systems, developing measures aimed at improving the efficiency of training artificial neural networks and increasing the efficiency of information processing in artificial neural network

Development of Estimation and Forecasting Method in Intelligent Decision Support Systems

The method of estimation and forecasting in intelligent decision support systems is developed. The essence of the proposed method is the ability to analyze the current state of the object under analysis and the possibility of short-term forecasting of the object state. The possibility of objective and complete analysis is achieved through the use of improved fuzzy temporal models of the object state, an improved procedure for forecasting the object state and an improved procedure for training evolving artificial neural networks. The concepts of a fuzzy cognitive model, in contrast to the known fuzzy cognitive models, are connected by subsets of fuzzy influence degrees, arranged in chronological order, taking into account the time lags of the corresponding components of the multidimensional time series. This method is based on fuzzy temporal models and evolving artificial neural networks. The peculiarity of this method is the ability to take into account the type of a priori uncertainty about the state of the analyzed object (full awareness of the object state, partial awareness of the object state and complete uncertainty about the object state). The ability to clarify information about the state of the monitored object is achieved through the use of an advanced training procedure. It consists in training the synaptic weights of the artificial neural network, the type and parameters of the membership function, as well as the architecture of individual elements and the architecture of the artificial neural network as a whole. The object state forecasting procedure allows conducting multidimensional analysis, consideration and indirect influence of all components of a multidimensional time series with different time shifts relative to each other under uncertainty